Member Info for hitman1a

Ok, you can say it was borrowed money.. fair enough.. was it $2.4b? . but it's only $1.280b now and reducing fast..

The scales have to tip in favour of the equity at somepoint..
If JS thinks the company can support $1b (50/50) on Oct 2023, then that's only $280m to go, ..add GE then at somepoint before Xmas this has to improve quite a bit.

Even if Kraken breaks even.. and the Company gets it's money back.. that's a very large $2b "Premium Bond" that you can invest elsewhere.. nice problem to have.

That's a great picture Therapist.. feel better now.
But 1 digger ... come on ? look how small it is..

Still looks good. If they refloat the Suez ship on Monday.. ok.. but to me it looks worse than originally reported. What if there is a hole in it. It sinks, it tips over or is just stuck there until they can offload some cargo or dig it out.. It's going to take ages.

Eats up the time to May.. all good and extra oil needed to go the long way round.. nice

Money spent on low cost drilling and purchasing new assets have a 2 yr payback . So no issues there . We could be net debt zero by Oct 2023, so affording a dividend would be viable before that date . You know what I mean man .

His reply on dividends was the same as before,. He wants net debt to EBITDA ratio to be less than 1x. I guess the earliest review point is this time next year, with potentially something paid 6 mths later of say 3p / share. I agree we should forget about it for the time being.

Brent is $62.35 . Perhaps 25p plus very soon given our FCF which looks fantastic. I guess if you release your accounts which show a half a billion loss, you shouldn't expect your share price to go up on the day.

Current "oil price assumptions of $60/bbl from March to December 2021 and $58/bbl to the end of the first quarter 2022."

Apart from our $422m impairment , we did ok last year.. If we get to $65 again in May once China starts buying again .. then we should as they say make a big dent in the debt and the SP should perform better.. Shame they can't give us a monthly figure, but the impression I got from the presentation was come back in early September and see Enquest make a large profit. Shame about the equity raise but it is accreditive.

The presentation is always too early in the morning.. I haven't listened to it yet.., But if the cash break even is say $34 and we get $64 selling price, then on 60k production, that's $657m FCF.

The Company also say "2021 free cash flow yield to equity >50%". Not a phrase I have seen before, but I understand the equity valuation per the stock market is say £325m. Add 50% and you get £487.5 or $672m FCF

Two alternative independent ways.. apart from our methods which indicated $50m/$60m per month: Also 2P is solid.

It's only the market cap which is way too low at 19p.. Do you think the market is double counting opex.?

2021 free cash flow yield to equity >50%

looks good. anyone prepared to expand on this.?

1. Existing 2P reserves of 189 MMboe; Golden Eagle expected to add c.10%

Excellent news.. a few chats said it be much lower. but it looks solid.. Plenty of years left, albeit some low cost drilling to get it out from 2023. That's a lot of years : say 10 years.. and we need say 3yrs to pay off all the debt (not that we are going to)

2. Opex still $15 for 2021 and perhaps $14 for 2022

3. Fingers crossed for a good oil price. Disappointed with the share price today, but if we see $70 again in Summer , then today looks like a good entry point to target 25p again in a few months.

More important to pay off debt over next 24 mths , accept lower production , but a more profitable company , I don’t mind a smaller company that has no debt , no interest payments , Enquest confirming not drilling until 2023. Good news imv, pay off the debt first . Leave a bit of amo for another acquisition as well ,

U already sold anyway , but the train could leave again for the next station based on 2021 FCF forecasts.

Clearly we don’t want a downward revision in 2021 annual production.

I’m up, expecting 7am RNS , or will it be 8am , .Hopefully plenty of Carlsberg to smooth the edges .

Hello

I managed to get a few yesterday at 19.21 and 19.30.. and some today at 20.12

Now we know the reasons why oil was sold off, calm has returned and we can grind our way back to $65 over the next 6 weeks. 22p tomorrow if we see a good FCF number projected for the rest of the year.

Barclays think Brent 71 in 2022 ($66 in 2021)
JPM thinking $74 in 2022, this dip dampens investment which helps create a super cycle
Goldman still thinking $80 in a few months, and this dip is a buying opportunity.

https://www.ft.com/content/f4e155b5-ac1a-43cb-921a-e4128917b491

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415578-physical-oil-market-remains-weak-near-term-be-cautious?utm_source=investing.com&utm_medium=referral

Wait for Chinese to start buying again in April after maintenance season, and oil should start to rise again.

If the UK has say vaccinated 30m people (first dose only) : ie 50% of population and is starting to open up on 12 April.. then if Italy says it needs until September to fully vaccinate 80% of it's population.. it seems to me that if this is a guide for the rest of Europe, they will be starting to open up at the beginning of Q3 (July). Europe needs Q2 to catch up with vaccines.. the same problem we saw last year when we all wanted hand gel and face masks at the same time.. so let's see if it does so..

Think by July 2021, oil demand and prices have a good chance of rising.
In the meantime, 19p seems too low if your earning $50m /mth.. so I'm still looking forward to another acquisition from BP in Q2 and putting us on the map another way..

You make very good points L3T. they bring us back to reality.. Yes we do have revenue from gas sales which comprise say 6.3% of total revenue.. if I read it correctly. I haven't seen the more detailed breakdown that would be useful, but we are mainly an oil producer. Even so, we could see the estimated 2021 FCF spelt out soon like Tullow did.. which gets us further down the analysis road.

IF JS gets a $700m plus new RBL, he could do another acquisition with BP under another Magnus type deal.. Perhaps 25% this year and the rest via option in 2022.. Think with GE and BPnewco we could see the market cap exceed £500m very quickly.. I might be inclined to say we should go for it as I want to see the SP at 30p before the OO.. At 30p I'm inclined to sell a few shares too. But as you say, it has to be the right price. Either way we can afford another acquisition, and the current market price is payback in 2 years..

A Dr friend says they expect Summer to be like last year with much lower transmissions .. and a new booster shot expected in Autumn to keep deaths as low as possible thereafter. I'm inclined to agree.. but my cousin in NY who has had both jabs, says he won't travel to UK because of quarantine time and costs.. Still alot of work to do yet.. but there are so many optimistic people in USA/UK who look at Israel and see "normality" returning soon.... apart from International flights.. but that will come back also.. GL.