Member Info for hitman1a

Posted Barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) includes natural gas. “Bopd” is only the oil.

2021 Kraken production is expected to be between 30,000 Bopd and 35,000 Bopd (21,150 Bopd to 24,675 Bopd net)

Thing is we already have the estimated oil production range from Enquest, so why not just multiply it by the oil price.

Add in GE and we could see 60k here. No need to look at gas .

Too right Jan2. I'm sure I saw 21.45p flicker towards the close.. Brent $64.51 and looks like opening above 22p on Monday..

Did you say you were from E4,? David Beckham is from E4 via E11.. I'm IG8 via E11. I remember we had a school fate and the hot act of the day was a young 13yr or so local kid who was going to turn up and go for a world record : keeping the ball up in the air, think he managed about 50 or so taps and kicks with his feet and knees.. he turned out alright in the end.

I think you'll do alright too if you wait for Summer and higher demand.. but doubt your Porsche will be as good as his..

Just got home. I won a £100 premium bond. Things are looking up.. Just wondering what will happen if I start to carry my lucky $1 dollar bill again.. That must be the reason we are not at 30p.. Will start from tomorrow and see the effect it has between now and 25th March.

1. If Tullow are taking 1H 2021 to finalise their new RBL, I'm taking this 6mth timeframe as similar to what Enquest will require.
2. Tullow's recent RNS has emphasis on FCF.. so like Modestus has pointed out, it is coming back into fashion... but you have to point it out, as many times as possible in the RNS so people don't miss it. Enquest should gives examples like Tullow has, as to how much it could improve with higher prices.. Enq can keep its long term price forecast at $60, give us the FCF and improvement for every $5 increase and with bonus bucks from the Kraken premium. Usage of Excel will help.
3. Tullow has some good 2021 asset sales bringing in cash, but it's 2021 production range of 60/66 is lower than I expected.. Enquest are 56/62 with GE.. Our net debt is probably half of theirs ($2.4b compared to $1.28m),.. so are they really worth twice Enquest, with a similar annual FCF..
4. Nice to see Tullow is entering the FTSE250 , so it gets a more attention.

The only way to move the SP higher in the near term is to emphasize the 2021 FCF on the 25th March.. but the new RBL and OO will always dampen the SP until the are completed.

The other driver is if we see WTI at $70 by June or before , I think Enquest could see 30p.. ($500m market cap) , then it might get stuck there with a raft of sells from PIs. Then it's sideways travel for some time but If Enquest can pencil in a dividend in late 2022 of say £50m (3p), then from a yield point of view, it might move the SP from 30p to 60p, which is a 5% yield and very decent capital gain too.

At the moment I accept the new RBL conditions mean the OO is required, but our FCF will hopefully confirm it's not needed..
We could be in a position on 1 Oct 2021, that the balance is the same as the old RBL,, so all we really need is it extended for 24mths, which allows for another similar acquisition to GE in 2022 and full repayment by Oct 2023. Reminds me of building a buy to let portfolio.. no need to drill if you can purchase good mid-term assets with a 2 yr payback period.

That would be my business plan for the next 24 mths.

I've topped up today in one portfolio that has a higher average (now 31.9p).. first trade was 6 May 2015: 58.10p:
The 60p party was literally the next weekend. so be glad to get to break even this year even with the Open Offer.

I see Enquest have penciled in the 2 Sep 2021 as the provisional date for the 1H 2021 accounts.. Think we should be above 30p by then.. and a couple of analysts will look more favorably at these and start a bit more coverage.

I can understand AA's point of view, the SP performance over many years hasn't been great.. It will take a while yet to shift that negative view. This year will be a good chance to do that.. I see some stats with Tullow (production, net debt) and think we could be a bit closer in market cap to them than we are today.

I guess Enquest will use another costless collar for remaining 1H barrels.. $65 /$75 ; get them in next week.. and confirm on 25th. Might even see something eating into Q3.

It's possible.. Fauci says US could return to as close to normal by Q4 2021..

The rest of the world would still be in recovery mode for another year and be needing more and more oil as vaccines speed up their own recoveries, pushing up demand and keeping prices at high levels well into 2022.

It could work out very well here with the new larger RBL being paid off very quickly, ahead of time.

1. Was thinking that we are stuck because of our hedged barrels. US pundits expect WTI to stay strong for at least 18mths.. and so our SP should tick up in late May/2H once the hedged barrels are cleared.
2. Annual accounts might reveal net debt as of 28 Feb 2021 : Like to see it reduce from $1,280m to $1,200m
3. Think the new RBL will be finalised in Q3.
4. Brent $69.41, we should really be at 25p today..
5. I put Super Premium unleaded in my tank today. Filled to the brim just to speed things up demand wise.

US GDP estimated at 7% for this year.

BACK TO 23p tomorrow am.

should be open offer ( rather than RI)

Morning Romaron

1.Good point about ports in the USA having issues.. I saw on Bloomberg that the cost of a Aframax 500k tanker has gone up 80% to transport oil from US Gulf Coast to Europe.. Definitely a backlog of oil to get out.. so we should over the next month see some negative change in the weekly crude oil stocks once refiners and exports catch up and demand increases.. Not sure about the US SPR effect , but I guess some will be released back into the system.

2. Was thinking the new RBL will take sometime to organise, but as the RNS says, the RI will be issued shortly after.. Will we get an update on Annuals accounts day... is a progress update holding the back the SP?. I still can't find a text book that says we need the money based on our current deleveraging program. Part of me thinks the RI should be issued with no discount to market price.. because the SP will always be going up anyway at these Brent prices.

3. Wonder if the Company will release an updated NPV analysis of our worth for each asset.. now that we see better prices..
I also wonder if they will have to ..if they are doing an RI and issue it in the prospectus.. ?

GL to all.

It’s that time of day that I need 2P as well

It’s going to be quiet here today and probably the same on others boards .. most posters are going back to school today.

Also BoA looking at Aramco next dividend , implying they should comfortably be able to pay the next dividend,and may even be considering raising it. I assume they think these better prices are here to stay.

Think Romaron will be able to confirm he has bought a new boiler in the morning.

There's an article in today Sunday's Times about the Saudi Vision 2030.. $5 trillion cost.

Big expense.. sort of make sense now.. Saudi need to keep barrels off the market until the worldwide economy is recovered.. We are talking long term management over 10 years to get the income in to fund Vision 2030.

The Saudi Sovereign fund is only worth $290b at the moment. Even at Brent $66 they only break even, so how so they get the rest of the money.? Partly debt,, but some has to be new equity without using the existing Sovereign funds imv. That just leaves extra income from oil receipts.

It’s possible , the stock market valuation should reflect the future NPV of our net cashflow discounted back to present time. As Pelle pointed out the other day , our EV is still playing catch up . In fact with constant monthly deleveraging , this process will go on for some time .

Amrita Sen saying Goldman boosted their Q3 Brent forecast to $80 following Opex meeting due to tighter market. May and June normally sees higher demand. I guess we could get to $75 in May , then Opec+ will release some barrels . Sideways travel at $75 over Summer is where I am today. Saudi saying they will only bring more barrels on after they have seen evidence the stock levels are below average which takes us upto $80 in Q3 and minor tick down to $75 by the end of the year as more barrels are released.

I think they should at least reverse out the 2021 $47 very bad guess asap in 2H 2020 accounts. It's a material difference. It's not too late to change. If not, then it should be as you say in the next 1H 2021 accounts. I guess they won't write back to no more than $60 which is their current long term price forecast.

1. Yes we are in close period in the run up to the accounts.. so I'm not expecting any Director share purchases.
2. Tax consultants are normally reluctant to write back impairments, once tax losses are created. If you by chance do better than expected, you should see the extra profits realised via the P&L in subsequent periods.