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but Brent had a good uplift towards the close.. I'd say 18p plus on tomorrow.

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Just saw on Bloomberg there is a provisional plan to bring back European flights soon. Also a pilot friend said yesterday he was going back into the SIM for a few days this month in preparation for restarting a few routes.. Brent $67 bodes well for 18p tomorrow . Maybe more.. as the headline indicated vaccine shortages have eased in Europe. so 20p perhaps given the runway for Brent demand in 2H seems quite high..

Yeah, lets make a list and send to Ian in advance.

We know AB is comfortable with debt. I recall mentioning it at the 2018 AGM whilst you were sitting next to me , and AB didn't seem concerned.. Almost shrugged his shoulders in response.. so the net debt amount today won't concerned him one bit.. In 2018 I think it was still increasing, whereas today it's declining significantly each month. You may recall some other shareholders also asked about a dividend.. "wanted to be more like PMO".. and AB and JS both replied it was several years away.. Well we are entering the zone where people will ask about dividends again.. so I agree it will sort out the SP. but it looks like this time next year..

If we can rollover the current Bonds like JS says to say 2028 , with half being RCF.. then I'd like to see it finalised by December 2022, which then free's up the 2023 cashflow for drilling campaigns on several areas.. Think it's $50m for a 3 hole drilling campaign.

XEL/PMO/HUR : see what happens when the Bond holders take a slice. TLW being an exception. We shouldn't take refinancing for granted.

Enquest needs to set a heading of being net debt zero at Oct 2023. Any other large ambitions need to be reined in.. 2 year payback on any deal, whether acquisition or low cost drilling is the max I would go..

JS says he has a long runway to Oct 2023.. and anticipates roiling over the Oct 2023 bonds via a 50/50 new bond/RCF combo. Well let's not leave it until the last day.. Keep our target of net debt zero also to Oct 2023 as insurance.. otherwise the Bond holders will do to us what they do to others..

The AGM is on the 12 May , so we should get an Operations update on the same day with a net debt position as of 30 April 2021. This is earlier than last year. I guess I would prefer to leave the OO until Q3 when oil prices and the SP are higher.

I've seen a picture of Boris' redone lounge and have to say it really looks like it needs to be done again. You can see why people think it's a waste of money.. It's not like the next resident will keep it.

Thanks Kamrat

Definitely worth a try and see if Enquest will pay you $2m for the analysis..

2022 looks like a better year with reduced GE expenses , less interest .. and a higher rate of deleveraging.

Only short term down side is the OO and more shares.. if we see Brent at $75 before the OO and the SP near 25p again.. do we sell or take it on the chin and ride through it into 2022 .. A $500m market cap seems realistic but with more shares, the actual SP might be the same as our existing 28p target from Jefferies.

GL.

GL.

The rally was also underpinned by a feverishly-bullish commodity price forecast issued by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday, where the Wall Street bank forecast Brent at $80 a barrel and WTI at $77 by the end October.

“We expect the biggest jump in oil demand ever, a 5.2 million barrels per day rise over the next six months,” Goldman Sachs said, citing acceleration of vaccinations in Europe and an unleashing of pent-up travel demand.

The easing of international travel restrictions in May will lead global jet demand to recover by 1.5 million bpd, it added.

If we trend from Brent $67 to $80 over the next 6 mths (May to Oct).. that would be fantastic.. think our hedges run out in May too. . A Brent $73.5 average over the next 6 mths would be worth a 6p upgrade in SP just by itself..

This could be the start of a big move to 28p. (we got to 25.20p only recently when Brent was $71.ish)

Brent $67 : until Dec 2022 gets our net debt to near $500m. Sentiment on Bloomberg changed yesterday to post covid. Looking past current hot spots and a much higher availability of vaccines from Q3 onwards.

Perhaps the availability of shares in Enquest has now "tightened" up as well. 20p this week if so.

NPV :$690m over 35 yrs. Is it worth it?

Might be if you have a FPSO nearby and can reduce the cost. I guess we got a lot of data for $2m, and the field for free.

Cost to first oil is estimated at $729MM. At $60/bbl Brent flat, P50 reserves on the core area are 131 MMbbls, with an economic field life of 35 years. The pre-tax NPV10 is $690MM with a 27% IRR.

 https://whalsayenergy.com/operations/

I wonder if Jefferies will improve the 28p target price next month.

https://www.teekay.com/blog/2012/11/29/teekay-and-xcite-successfully-complete-pre-production-extended-well-test-in-the-north-sea/

Thanks for your input Slift

and OPEC+ meeting in early June : taper to $70 perhaps a bit earlier than expected. late May? rather than June or July.

The EWT proves Bentley has oil, but the flow rates are low / per well... hence Steve says you need lots of wells to make the economics work with a very large upfront capex cost.. but we just need a spare slot at the Kraken FPSO.. and a drill centre established at Bentley and Bressay. On the "to do" list after Kraken Western Front.. Each drill centre should add about 5k production.. so let's not spend too much capex on these.

As Daniel Day Lewis explained in the film "There will be Blood". you just need to drill horizontally, use a very long straw and suck it up. worked in 1927.. still works today..

Kraken already has 2 separate production trains, so we could split these, one for Kraken and the other for Bentley/Bressay combo mix. The SP also sucks as well.

A couple of buys towards the end of the day at 16.66p , which bodes well for 17.16p in the morning.

One pundit on Bloomberg just said oil was the most important commodity in the world.. but it's oversupplied and there isn't enough demand, so he was long on commodities except oil. a view held by many pundits who give interviews on Bloomberg.

UBS on the other hand were still long on financials and energy.. a bit more pragmatic.. a bit of a pause at the moment given the recent selloff, but they know companies are making good FCF at Brent $65 and equity is undervalued.. OPEC+ has underpinned the market and demand will rise as vaccinations speed up.

We wait and see ...... S&P Platts saying Brent $70 June 2021.

Target 18p this week.
Enquest will have to find a low-cost method to extract oil from Bressay and Bentley using existing wells.

Please no more.. just want Brent $70 in June /Q3 2021 and 28p as per Jefferies..

Think we lost $2m today.. they should be paying us. and then they want another $40m at somepoint out of revenue. The RNS didn't mention any tie-back to Kraken , but if so, our new partners at Kraken "Waldorf" would have to agree and we are looking after 2023, preferably when we have repaid/refinanced our bonds which expire in Oct 2023. Otherwise our bond holders will be taking everything. We don't want any large capex beforehand.. we know what would happen if oil prices tank.