Member Info for hitman1a

Investors Cronicle have a sell on Enquest. Concerns on production and servicing debt... I sort of agree if you ignore GE. .....the article doesn't mention GE for some strange reason.

Add in Q3 and Q4 fixes and we should see 60,000 bopd from November with GE included (10k).

I'm only referring to the High Yield Bond.. the retail bond will be paid off in full..

Looking for say : 4% $400m Oct 2023 New bond.. expiry 5 years

Then you have cashflow to invest in expanding Kraken and beyond in 2024 etc.

Yes, I always ignore the fresh equity cash.. the stock market doesn't attach any value to it.. but it will help with the net debt position at 31 Dec 2021 and there's always a little help next year with lower interest payments as deleveraging gains traction.

I guess the original business and all its decom liabilities was always going to struggle, but I think with GE , it looks sorted.. especially as AB confirmed they were looking for new opportunities that didn't involve us putting money in.. just their expertise.. and perhaps an FPSO.

It was good to hear JS talk about the bonds.. confirmation we don't need to replace the existing bond with the same amount.. it can be much smaller and we still get the whole RBL facility extended beyond June 2023. Looks like we continue to layer on hedges now for 2023 and when we have done enough, we get the new bond arranged.. $300m/$400m range imv, either March or Sep 2022.

Barclays issued the July 2021 "simple cashflow story", with target of 33p based on 1,695m shares.. so with 1,885m shares, 30p would be the correct number.

Man maths para1 says Brent is now $73.53. We have 6m barrels hedged with a ceiling of $73 in 2H 2021.. so all our oil is making good money.. that's hedged and unhedged..

Man maths para2 says 46k at 23p , so 60k gives 30p also (same as Barclays) . what a coincidence,

By the end of September, we will be a bigger company.. just accept it.

Man maths says you have to add the $250m cost of GE ($325-$75) to net debt 1h 2021 as well.

Net debt reduction for 1H 2021 was $96.5m.. ( $62.8 realised oil price)... not many were impressed.

But Man maths say 2H benefits from higher prices (say $70) , so that' another $7 per barrel on say 46k/day. $58m( less BP adj). Also the $75m post tax adjustment on GE gets taken off the purchase price, but at 40% tax, that's really $125m gross/9mths. so $14m gross a month from Oct 2021.. once we sign the deal to deleverage with.

Think we are looking at $40m/mth in deleveraging. $480m/annum . Might even be a bit extra from Magnus, Malaysia and GE too).. Not sure why the share price declined today.. ok , the 1H numbers didn't impress and that started the water fall.. ok the GE deal hasn't been signed yet... but the presentation and hedging in place were impressive. We are in a good position and we don't have to chase production to pay bills.. as confirmed by AB's 2022 drilling schedule.. low cost , quick payback..

GE signed by end of month.. sort of any means any day now.. even AB thought it was done and then corrected himself with almost done.

I spoke to my Cousin in Texas a couple of days ago.. works for a big oiler .. confirmed the best drill spots are still being drilled.. but not chasing everything.. they will always find the capital to drill.. .. I expect US production to be healthy.. and demand too. Talking about past mistakes makes them puke.. so there is some discipline now.

you mean 25p, get in while you can

Nice "Thank You" from AB to all of us for supporting the equity raise.. and confirmation the cashflow gets much better to deleverage once the GE deal completes. Very minor capex low cost drills in 2022. JS might go for refinancing the bond perhaps March 2022.. say $300m in my view.. if they layer on hedges in Q4 2021 in the $75 range for remainder of 2022 and 2023. Once the banks can see the RBL can be repaid by June 2023 on hedged production, then JS can refinance the bond. Smaller bond will have a lower cost too. For those us who have held and bought more along the way since 2015, it does look very good.. as per what AB said in presentation.. things are much better now.. Only disappointing thing is share price fell off 26p perch and is now 23p.. but I think 30p by xmas still looks possible..

Signing the GE deal transforms the company... I agree with AB. you get 2 very strong years of cashflow .. gets us to near net debt zero..

I'm working on the basis that a significant amount of due diligence would have been done by the banks when refinancing took place.. so I'm not expecting any surprises.. Balance sheet might not be as strong as we would like after 1H, but will be after GE completion and deferred tax adjustments. 2H looks better.

It always used to go down, as we expected things to be sorted, but ended up with more unexpected very large issues.

We will still have issues, but these are minor and the major difference today is that we are deleveraging with hedging at good levels in place as well. Brent $72.. perfect.. Brokers at 33p.. it will happen. (but at some point over next 6 mths..)

And we all know we get a turbo boost in January..ish. so you have to be loaded up before xmas.

I can't see our legal team signing off on GE before the Bank Holiday.. so September it is.. and another round of positive broker upgrades when the deal is signed.. I can't see AB accepting any delays either.

UBS last night saying Brent will move back to $75.. and it only took a weekend to look past Delta in China.. They seem to know what they are doing.. so demand looks strong.. Goldman still saying $80 in Q4, but I guess that still looks high to me..

Really looking forward to update . I'm normally left optimistic about the future, but disappointed with SP.. because small investors get explanations based on an X-ray.. I don't think we could have handled the real facts like the IIs get which are based on a CT scan.

Things are different now.. Even Barclays say the business has a simple model.. for the last few years it's always been very complex to understand.. Just comes down to positive FCF, but need more evidence to convince those still on the side-lines to invest..

The graph looks like an II buying , Could be H trying to get to 5%, even 10%. GL

Google predicting their employees can return to the office on 18 Oct. oil price should start to move up after this date.

Another RNS from Helikon.

At the end of the day, I think the first half results will be normal.. but the comments in the RNS exceptional in terms of the imminent GE deal. UBS and Blackrock expecting oil to improve in price once Delta cases dip and re-opening trade restarts.

We also have a OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 1 Sep.. so given so many US firms are delaying their return to the office, and lock downs in other parts of world, I think they should postpone the extra 400k/day monthly increase for Q4 2021.. to help stabilize prices nearer $70. They have gone ahead with Aug and Sep, but I remember the Saudi Minister saying they could reverse or change the numbers if the situation changed.

“We are a lot more comfortable than we were a year ago," Amjad Bseisu says..... July 2017. wonder what he thinks now ?

We have reached a major turning point and are deleveraging. This will support the share price. Completely different atmosphere in the office imv....as seen by the reply Romaron got the other day.

The draft half year accounts must be ready now.. or even final version being distributed for checking.
I think we should see a small rise over the next 2 weeks.. but I'm looking for a decent rise on 2nd Sep to 30p plus.

Combo RNS .