Member Info for hitman1a

20p eow

No problem J2,

FYI: I can do you a good deal on Body Tape, but Nipple Covers have been discontinued.

Didn't get any Questions from the IIs..

Perhaps more to assess on 2 Sept 2021 half year results.. Brent is $69.58.. plenty of US kids going back to college for a few weeks ,many have their own cars.. then summer driving season. $70 plus next week

Part of our capital allocation when the time is right. . no mention of net debt to EBITDA ratios as before.. so probably has lot on his mind, ... He confirmed at Brent $60 , GE would be repaid before Oct 2023.. but how about all the rest of the money..

Damart have 50% off bras if your interested.

standby. thank you for your patience.. .. been holding for years..

they have changed the tape and it now sounds depressing..

lol

to listen to once you login to the AGM.... sounds positive and upbeat.

Some good hedging , but I can’t see the net debt figure. Production at 46k , ok

The AGM will take place at 2.00 p.m. (BST) 12 May 2021 at the Company's registered office. The total of the votes cast by shareholders for and against or withheld, on each resolution to be put to the meeting, will be published on the Company's website (www.enquest.com), on or shortly after 12 May 2021. With respect to continuing COVID-19 regulations, shareholders are requested not to attend the AGM in person. More information can be found in the Notice of AGM.

No need to get up early.. perhaps they can issue the relevant update RNS in the morning, give people a chance to read it and prepare questions for later. Are we going to get a list ready here and then email it to Ian , say by midday.?

At somepoint it has to come down to strategy. 17p, 1.7b shares.. you can see where this is going.. Market cap £300m, we need to raise $50m..($35m).. money we don't need. AB is in a position of strength now compared to the previous RI and OO.

As he is prepared to underwrite it.. I'd say no discount protects his own valuable portfolio extremely well. ( ours too)

Best outcome is very few take up the OO offer.. ie it's offered at nil discount..

AB underwrites the balance via a loan.

AB is wealthy enough to have a diversified portfolio apart from Enquest.. Please don't read too much into his holding.. It's always been a decent amount and he supports the fund raising just like everyone else.. no matter how much is required.

Glad the AGM is on the 12th Wed.. Thursday's are always inconvenient for me. So tomorrow should selling for a few and FOMO for others.

It's clear that AB's last statement in March advising the company has been transformed is true. We have left the old business behind.. you know the one that relied on squeezing out the last drops from older assets in a high oil price environment..
We are at the start of a new phase.. so let's see how the next 18 mths pan out. . Enquest think the company can support $1b long term debt, .. I'm more in the $500m range, but that's just me.. I don't believe Enquest will obtain low rate APR. TLW was 10%, even some car finance is 8.9% APR.. so $500m is fine for me.. after safety, the next important part is shareholder returns.. not expense in dead assets for the sake of doing so.. that's the old business, but I accept we had no choice.

The consolidation sideways travel phase of oil prices is coming to an end. It should tick up into the low $70s soon.. The US has so much stimulus masking so many problems, but it doesn't matter.. People are going back to work, buying lumber at 25%/30% more than normal , building new homes. It doesn't matter if people haven't paid rent for 6 mths on their homes or shop leases.. the banks don't even care either as the US government will take on the debt. There is a shortage of used cars as there aren't enough chips to build new ones . So much cash is being spent in the US.. These supply and inflation issues will last a couple of years.. and these costs affect oil drillers as well.. a shortage of labour , higher material costs and the Biden government. US production won't keep up with demand this Summer and we will see higher prices like Goldman says.. rising jet fuel demand will be the trigger.

I didn't ask to vote at this years AGM.. I wonder how many on this board asked their providers to obtain the paperwork.. I assume all the things on the agenda will just get passed as per normal.. Shareholder buybacks will never happen, but dividends might. There are several analysts listed on the Enquest website that cover Enquest. A few kindly give up their time to ask questions at the AGM.. I hope they ask questions regarding the future rather than historic issues.. which we know AB just says they will be sorted. only the Malaysian production issues to sort , the rest seems fine. Perhaps JS can finally give more info on the cashflow forecast for the next 12 to 18 mths..

Think 20p this week after the AGM is viable given we would be nearer to some of the European airlines opening up again and Brent should continue to consolidate in the $68 plus range..

I certainly don't want to be holding and accumulating for several years and then sell out just when things look better than they have ever been. Not only do I want a dividend , but also SP capital appreciation to compensate for the trauma for holding for so long without a dividend.

and please don't say $3b in Tax losses is a reason to hold onto this investment.. the stock market doesn't care either.

The problem is I then think all the problems are sorted, it's safe to top up.. only to realise a month later I should have been selling into it.. I once read the phrase.. accumulate (18p), manipulate ( 30p) , then profit release ( back to 18p). It needs an II to do this, but the pattern repeats itself over and over again.. If your a new holder at 18p, and then the SP shoots up 40%(25p), you should sell..

Many of us over the years have clutched at straws..to keep holding on.
1. Oil price and FCF
2. Closer to dividends
3. Change in Market Sentiment
4. EP sale at higher price than expected
5. Refinance of RCF potentially post 2023 to 2025
6. Production from 2C reserves, let alone 2P.

Should we really be basing our investment on hope and straws. Enquest needs to really deliver FCF without any issues, like wax in the pipes, old assets that catch fire, equipment breakages in Far East that aren't repairable, running out of cash and asking for a OO or RI , complex balance sheets made up of Wonga finance.. I appreciate we had some very tough times, but our investment reputation based on track record isn't high enough to attract funds.. This year might be the start of a good run for several years, if the FCF achieved by year end is strong enough and people believe in the production assets. On the face of it, it now appears sorted. Jefferies target of 27p seems fair.
5. Production from 2C reserves, let alone 2P

Watching Al Gore on Bloomberg the other day confirmed to me how much investment is going into Green projects , unlimited really , complete opposite for oil projects like shale , you won’t find many chasing them . The Herd has moved on, Think US production will remain flat .

I think the 12 May update could be very upbeat.. a new $750m RCF which expires in Oct 2025, rather than Oct 2023.. That way we have an option to use it should we not be able to renew the Oct 2023 bonds.. I'm sure HBR are just waiting to see what happens.. They should just takeover Enquest, but will wait and pounce if the opportunity arises. Essential our current plan is to be net debt zero in Q4 2023 and the new RCF extends a couple of years after the bonds. I'm under the impression JS said it would expire in Oct 2023. ( think he said it would be all paid off, but that doesn't mean the facility can't last longer)..

Brent $68.40. No doubt 19p next week.. even 20p if the news is good.

Think I'm going to skip my afternoon nap and see if we hit Brent $70 today

Problem with the refinancing RCF is that it comes with an OO.. If it was bigger : ie $1.75b (rather than say $750m) and expired in 2028, then we would have the freedom to clear the bonds on time in 2023 from the RCF and purchase other assets before and after the date. It feels like we have one hand tied behind our back.. but at least it's not both.

We are also missing an II or 2 . No-one is buying more.. we might get a band of Swedes buying and then selling , but on the whole, it's just a few bandits buying what they can when the algo brings it down too much.. and selling..

18.44p is fine for the moment.. 3 mths earnings nets £100m so add 6p to the SP . Target 27p by end of June 2021, but pottery indicates 24p end of May. Best value seats always sell out first, so 18p to 24p should be quick like before.. (when it happens).

plus how can we do 60k in 2022 ?.. we need to allow for 2022 natural declines.. 60 K with GE in Q4 2021 sounds ok with Malaysia working again,

I'd suggest 55k average for 2022. which is still very good and allows the net debt position at 31 Dec 2022 to be near just a measly $500m.. HMH used the word "harvest", but I think that starts in Spring next year to get the bigger market cap like Tullow.

Thanks Kamrat

I guess from a SP point of view we are trying to form a "cup". 15 March 23.45p to 21 April 15.26p.. so 5 weeks and 18.25p today which is say 2 weeks on. Similar to SP 2 weeks prior to 21 April . Which if the pottery is good, indicates a SP of 23.45p in 3 weeks time.. and then a lip for 2 weeks to 25p and then it should target 27p to form a designer handle... if Brent stays at this level or settles in the $70/$75 range for a few months.

GL. Our 12 May update will give us the energy to complete the cup formation. The AGM should be bullish.