Member Info for hitman1a

Here is the full proposal by Saudi Arabia according to sources: ( ref: abakr)
May: 350k opec + and 250k KSA
Jun 350k Opec+ and 250 KSA
July: remainder ?

Think it was Novak who said the market was undersupplied by 2m bopd. and the excess was 50m. So that's soon enough.. late April/ early May.. when they think average stocks are within range.

OPEC should rollover May for now. I'm not expecting those that overproduced to catch up .
Bring on more extra barrels if prices exceed $75.. if/whenever that happens. Phased in from September makes sense like the JMMC said already.

Was it not the seeking alpha article that said the Chinese were not going to buy until April.. Expect that to add a couple of bucks when it restarts.. also the US is doing very well with the vaccination program. 3m jabs a day . Add another couple of bucks to WTi when road trips start again across the US.. Possible target WTi $65 in June.

Of course, once we get to Sep, the net debt might not have gone down with the GE acquisition taken into account, so we might be saying wait another 6 mths , which allows for the extra RI shares too.. But the profits for 1H 2021 will show in the September accounts and the size of them when compared to the net debt and 2P should re-rate this .. It should be now...ie 30p..

We are all thinking the same, but the market wants to see $70 rather than $65 . To be honest, even $5 on 60k production is only $109.5m, so not much difference between $65 and $70, given we have the Kraken premium to make up some of the difference.

The SP would be higher if the debt was lower.. so it's wait for September.. or higher oil prices if earlier..

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/multimedia/349.htm

The JMMC recommended the extension of the compensation cuts until the end of Sept 2021- sources told
@energyintel via A Bakr.. Wait for OPEC+ meeting today to at least extend current cuts to May and June to steady the market.

Also Fatih BIrol also saying he agreed oil demand would increase once economies got going again, but depended on vaccine rolllout and getting covid under control. .............Think we can all agree with that., but it may not improve the price as OPEC+ has so much spare capacity.

It's only the SP which is really disappointing.. Yes the company has transformed the business, so it's a long wait for the 1H 2021 accounts in September. Perhaps Oil at $70 in July will give us a boost back to 24p.

Everything indicates a better oil demand picture in 2022.

Speak to your local travel agent and you'll realise how much demand there is for international flights. People are booking from 18 May, subject to being allowed to fly. Get a credit note for a later date if still not allowed to fly out. Xmas flights might be fully booked already.

The government has already said we have to live with Covid. So long as the high risk groups have had 2 jabs, then it's back to normal and see what happens.

The algo doesn’t have anything to latch onto , apart from the last accounts which show a large loss. We know the SP will improve to say 24p if Brent gets to $70 by June , but the production for Jan and Feb 2021 isn’t 50k either . Sideways travel until 2 Sep , show the market some proof that this company makes money and doesn’t have another large write off .

it's a choice , take as few or as many as you want.. zero is an option , so is 100% and any percentage inbetween.

It’s just an open offer, do you want X amount of shares at Xpence , yes or no. If you don’t JPM will gather them together with any others and place them in the market at whatever price they can get , If we are short of $50m , AB will provide the balance via loan to the company , with a condition it only gets paid back to him after other loans the company has have been repaid . There are no issues of concern regarding AB .

It’s an open offer to all shareholders , AB will only take his percentage , AB will provide a loan to the company as a backstop to bridge any gap between $50m and actual amount raised .

There are no issues of concern . JPM may also place unwanted open offer shares in the market subject to demand.

He said he had more than 1 handful of options.. so that's 6 or more.

We wait . no rush.

On page 69 of the accounts, the company gives some analysis of free cash flow for the year.. which is after repayment of loans.

So "2021 free cash flow yield to equity >50%". must be after the provisional repayment of the Oct 2021 RBL , albeit we know it is likely being extended to say Oct 2023. Don't want to read too much into this.. but perhaps it's their way of giving guidance as too how much can be paid out as a distribution to shareholders.

You have done the right thing.. wait for IR to reply.

As far as earlier numbers, I would go for the middle of the range at 49k. (46k/52k). Add GE cashflow on top..

I believe it's market cap and is net cash after all cash outflows including repayment of the existing RBL in Oct 2021

So add back $352m to the $200m/$250m to get real 2021 FCF

No problem L3T, just email them to Tom8080 and he can post them here afterwards.

One thing that concerns me is that when Brent was $71 earlier this month, the SP only got to 24p/25p. And many sold as the market got ahead of itself. I expect Brent to improve in say May, but is there any reason to exceed 24p again, and should I sell some.. unless in May I expect Brent $75/$80 in Summer.. which gets us to 30p.. Wait and see.

So Including GE
60k : 2021
52k: 2022
46k: 2023
41k from 2024 and no debt. ? Net profit still $400m /annum. perhaps more if Brent higher than $60 and some low cost drilling to help steady the decline rates.

Does anyone of you remember what they said about declines for Enq?

about 12% a year.. ?