Member Info for hitman1a

I wouldn’t drill this year.. but I think we could push the sp to 22p this month .

Oh sorry about that.. my alternative was using the UBS $68 in 2H in 2021.. but can amend to $65 average for 2021 if that gives you a bit of room. That's the lowest I can go.. when I look at average prices prior to 2020.. I'm sure we will get close to $70 at times, ....add in the Kraken premium and things look even better once we clear our hedged production for 1H 2021.. I liked the paragraph Pelle mentioned in an article about Enquest FCF and market cap.. we are all thinking the same. Just need to keep on track.

Malaysia : not sure what to make of it. What doesn't make sense is how long it is taking to repair existing issues.. surely we aren't waiting for the insurance claim to be processed before making repairs..

22p by early April 2021, based on another months earnings from today.

I'm in at $66.5 average for 2021.

Guess gold and silver declining are good signs that the WW economy will recover over the year.

Brent is still $65 , albeit I read the Chinese have just said their oil storage tanks are almost full..
I think they can build more storage tanks and just don't want the price to keep going up...

gkb47
Any further capex to first oil for Enquest is now zero. it's a fully carry. So spend zero and get $17.5m/annum , if that's the number. Production will decline after 1 year , just like all other wells.

It's not $30m.. costs are covered only to first. oil..
Thereafter our 15% working interest incurs opex and capex maintenance imv .

Hi Jan, not sure about $80k/day either.. but if we see an annual net income of say $15m from this, that's perfectly fine.. our SP should have increased a bit on the deal.. it's a good one..

Ha Ha.. people getting confused with Eagle and Golden Eagle.. is this why some are selling?

Lucky this ain't an episode of Pawn Stars.. we might be trying to buy a Silver Eagle and complaining it doesn't look like a bird of prey.

I'm not happy either with today's performance so far, when compared to TLW or PMO..

So it's wait for the "write backs " in the March accounts based on revised oil price assumptions.. I assume they have to.
and Brent $70 plus premium..in Q2 onwards

Think we will get much bigger gains this time next year. Sideways travel for the next month ? and then review again after accounts.

It is now

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Exxon-Sells-UK-North-Sea-Oil-Gas-Assets-For-Over-1-Billion.html

Plus contingent, so $1.3b for 38k. . We are paying $375m for 10k. .. which on comparison seems fine.

#metoo

I spoke to relative yesterday,

He is into Green energy (has the solar on the roof and electric car, doesn't eat Ginsters), I expressed my enthusiasm for oil and he replied he didn't see much upside from here.. I was naturally disappointed with his response.. I asked him if another $5 from here seemed reasonable.. and he didn't disagree.. He said he didn't think oil would ever go up to $100 again.. and I replied we didn't need it.. costs are now down to $15 opex, rather than $40 plus before.. He was surprised it was so low.

Oil inflation: perhaps slightly.. but more so on other commodities like copper.. That said I wanted to order a new Fridge/Freezer from my local Euronics store today.. : 3 week delay.. you have to reserve one now.. only 30 or so of the model coming in which somehow has to feed all the Euronics stores nationwide. I paid in full today, just in case the price went up.. They also mentioned all the EU data stickers on the new ones coming in from 1 March (?) have to be updated.. so that will cause more time /expenses. Didn't fully understand it, but I agree there will be inflation on all imports of various products..

Good news is the boiler is fixed.. new expansion vessel (burst) and PRV (get it done whilst they are in there), and I have avoided the expense of a new one. Guess I could afford a new one, but even the plumber couldn't be bothered.

As E121 suggested, we wait for US stimulus (Mid March) and vaccine rollouts and more demand for oil.. and then review again.

I think the Anna Couling article on investing.com sums up where we are.. "congestion" at WTi $60/62 , but $65 when we clear it.. From a timeline, I believe this is tied to the number of vaccinations .

J& J will be delivering 20m doses of their one-shot vaccine to the US by end of March 2021. Add the other 93m doses from the other 2 manufacturers and the US has 113m does to administer each month in Q2. By June, we should see an enormous rebound in activity in the US and UK too.. International airlines ( with vaccine passport) might get going too as welll.. so WTI $65 in June seems reasonable , with Brent at $68.

That just leaves the OPEC+ barrels to bring back . I think they said it would be phased in , so that prevents oil prices spiking too high. Will the Enquest SP reach 40p in the next 6 weeks.. I hope so but doubt it.. but the sentiment keeps us invested. A pending equity raise is holding this back a little so perhaps the bankers will be friendlier in June and waive it. JS can show the cashflow analysis again based on the Brent forecasts.

Even Goldman say Brent in Q4 ($70) will be slightly less than Q3 ($75), so the UBS estimate for 2H 2021 Brent of $68 looks reasonable.. Plus we get our Kraken premium too.

Juan sheet is plenty.. apart from when Vomitman turns up.

Texas:$50.6 BILLION .. cost of electricity sold from early Monday to Friday morning. ..ouch.

Bit quiet here : guess everyone is looking at cars on auto trader?

Yep, the vaccine news is getting better and better.

You might as well mark this at 22p tomorrow and predictions of 30p by year end might have to be brought forward to midyear if Brent is $70 plus in summer.

Bersaysue . is how i remember it.

PS: It's only £36m now with the $ devaluation.

Is that you Amjad?

lol

All those articles we read last year about XYZ or FGH selling their North Sea Assets.. At the time I was pleased to read them, but didn't realise that the bigger the deal, the more dilutive it would be for existing shareholders.. As it happens, our acquisition of GE seems good, the measly £36m equity raise is a lot less than what might have happened if we tried to purchase eg: Exxon assets and so the share price has revalued positively into a Brent recovery. We have only seen the first phase of the SP recovery.. the second phase is happening now based on earnings.. current earnings/ FCF.

Enjoy your 35%.. I also have those sort of percentages on new shares bought in the last year which helps bring down my average. When we are up 35% up from here.. (18p to 24p )..I'll be looking for another 35% ( 24p to 32p) which is the third phase , based on the FCF for 2022 and 2023.