Member Info for hitman1a

Fair point..
SP 17.15.. Got a feeling the UT will near 18p again today..

GL.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/texas/houston/?cam=houston

All seems well, ....even the Superman (S) symbol on the side of the building is glowing brightly.

Plenty of lights on in Dallas also.
Gas Monkey Garage has electricity too , the outside lights are all on ,

Let it rip, potato chip.

Plenty of lights on in Houston , back to normal very soon , especially the refineries .

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/texas/houston/?cam=houston

Seems ok to me, plenty of cars moving. Will check early am to see if the lights come on.

Thanks for your service Maverick ...
Goose.

Ps: You never leave your wingman

The acquisition was decent and the open offer amount required from shareholders much smaller than expected, its only £37m . Runway is now clear , Image the VLSFO premium on perhaps all our Kraken barrels in 2H with UBS prediction of $68. ....£500m easy market cap

A few of us think the net debt at 31 12 2021 might be near $1b. Importantly the Board think this level of debt is something the company can support in perpetuity. It just needs rolling over in Oct 2023. Therefore what happens to the FCF of say $500m /annum In 2022 and 2023 and beyond. Even if you just look at 2022 and 2023, the SP should double or more from here . I can see larger buyers paying up to 25p this quarter as Brent is almost $65 already, but there will still be plenty of orders that remain unfulfilled. I just can't see where the shares will come from, unless the SP is much higher. A lot of us have purchases at 21p (RI), 25p,(precovid) and even higher.

This volume is high.. could be those buying OO early, and those topping up and newcomers coming in at higher prices, but when when it's safe to do so.. a combination of all 3 . But in the past I also think the book runner has bought into the market to increase the SP pre OO. In this case, the bookrunner maybe buying after the OO has been announced for FOMO itself. I find it strange that I sometime struggle to buy £1k and yet all of of sudden such large volumes are being bought without any fuss.

tåget har lämnat stationen

UBS just released their new prediction for oil. Raised it $5.
Calling for Brent $65 by mid 2021 and $68 for 2H 2021. WTI to remain at a $3 discount to Brent.

Goldman say Saudi break even for 2021 budget is $66.

Have seen a couple of webcams in Texas. Weather looks ok, not as much snow as I was led to believe, but clearly cold and frozen.. bit difficult to frack etc.. Brent doing well. Still think 16p by end of month, but we still need a 5p step up. Perhaps when we get the full accounts in late March.. we will see 20p plus. I really think 30p is a fairer price. This time last year we had analysts targets at 40p.

I prefer DVLA number plates auctions , have collected a handful over the years , sometimes I overpay slightly at the time , but after 5 to 10 years realise I would have to pay double or triple from a dealer to get the same plates and enjoyment use , .....I don’t know anything about pots, I would avoid them , just like brown furniture. But I topped up at 14.60p today and expect 16p by end of month.

If this was Dickenson's Real Deal, we would be sitting on the table and the trader would be offering us 14.54p.

Dickenson would then step in and say " Well I think this is worth 30p at auction (by Xmas) or 70p longer term (3 to 5 years)."
Dickenson would explain the EV etc and that analysts previously thought the assets were of poorer quality when compared to others in the sector, but the current assets are much better.. The professional valuation at auction is much higher.

Think I'll go to auction at some point in the future.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/298000/north-sea-shares-oil-price/

Looking back to my original investment here many years ago, there aren't any production hubs left, apart from a limping Malaysia.. but the cash those assets generated lives on in Kraken and Magnus.. So long as the likes of BP and Shell have reached peak production, then it looks like they need much higher prices from their old business model to generate the cash to invest in Green Energy infrastructure.. So long as oil demand is just ahead of supply, prices can go higher.. For the last 6 years, shale has always been able to produce just more than the world needs, even after OPEC+ adjustments.

A few articles now being issued.. and the Goldman man says "stay on for the ride".. etc Macro reflation etc.. Let's see how high prices go.. It's hard to believe, but it looks like it's happening.. We used to get OPEC and Shale fighting and BP and friends sitting in the middle making no sacrifices.. Now they have completely changed position and need much higher prices too.

16p by end of month is fine by me. Maybe 22p by mid summer (£372m market cap) and then 20p open offer to raise £37m
Extra 185m shares , increasing shares from 1695m to 1880m. Think that would be easy to digest.. The share price might have moved further ahead from 22p over Q3 anyway with better vaccines in the pipeline. If we can vaccinate the top 15m UK high risk people in 6 weeks.. we can do the same with a booster jab in Autumn.

Some have already bought the equivalent of their OO shares , others will do so next week... which gives good reason to see 16p by end of month.. We could also see Brent $65 by end of month too..

Eg: I was expecting a takeover: we got a reverse takeover

Everything has been back to front for years.

I also think we need to trend higher to $70 at somepoint to get the earnings here, so the net debt goes down and perhaps the SP goes up.. who knows: maybe the debt will just go down.. and the SP fails to perform as much as we want. We don't have a great track record with a 6 year bear market and some large operational issues.. Brent $60 doesn't really work, but $65 looks like it will provide enough energy to the starter motor that connected to the share price.

eg: Expecting a dividend at somepoint: actually got 3 fund raising events
eg: Expecting to make profits: actually got billions in losses
eg: Expecting the share price to rise: actually always seems to decline.

I think over the last year, I've already topped up and bought 50% more than would be required under the $50m OO.. ( say at 12p) . Think I will probably opt to take up the open offer option.. assuming I can sell existing shares higher as late as possible into a rising market to fund it.. . In the past, I have always seen the share price fall to the option price.. so maybe this time will be different.. It sort of has to be in a rising market post Shale Tier 1.

458,414 : volume is good

15p : Monday .. Market cap: £254m: ......which still looks too low. £275m would look better for end of Feb : target 16p

Google on 13.98p.. I predicted 13.94p

Wait for UT: could be over 14p

We did reach 13.80p yesterday , so add the .14p/day should see us at 13.94p EOD

That's Asda's price.

BP's dividend I guess has been cut, so it's stuck at 250. Shell have come to end of the road on the old business according to Bloomberg. Some sort of recent strategic report just issued.

Enquest rising 0.14 per day..