Member Info for hitman1a

KO
Yeah it’s only $2 , but I think we need to actually earn the money for 3 to 6 mths to get the higher Sp, The fruit machine has to pay out and we need to see in April $120m repaid early against the RCF. There must be a reason why the Sp isn’t moving as expected .

Royal Dutch Shell were again bidding for North Sea oil cargoes today , as per Aljazerra. The Baron seems to have done a runner but did help achieve a temporary 2p jump to 14.4p . A short squeeze was always worth 2p , but we are missing a II because their is no dividend , For that you need to purchase the bond , If we are at the end of a 6 year bear market , then the next few months should be rewarding for all . 30p £500m market cap seems fair if Brent gets to $60plus in Q2 2021.

Bloomberg reporting Louisiana ports exporting 15m of crude on 8 tankers to Far East . Add in Shells's purchasing of North Sea tankers yesterday and you have a large indication that the Far East will continue to demand oil from the US and ROW for quite a while. Guessing WTI still can improve another $5 as the rig numbers are still low. Perhaps more if the US can speed up the vaccination program.

You can easily push WTi to $57.50 before/by end of March with US stimulus and mass vaccinations..

Feb's a short month too..

Show me the Money !!!

Didn't have time to top up yesterday.. (but I did on Friday).

Maybe in 6mths when the fruit machine has actually paid out .

At the May 2018 AGM, dividends were discussed many times and the company replied it was something to consider in the medium term. E.g. 4 years. But with Covid, this might move from 2022 to say 2023 .. or later. It's got to be 18 to 24 mths from today imv when the next debt is near the $500m mark . I'd prefer capital growth rather than dividend for the next 2 years anyway.

Hi Pelle
1. The news from Israel is really good once 2 jabs are done. It's exceptional. The UK is close behind.
2. McDonald's are testing the McPlant Burger in Sweden very soon. Try it after you have had the first jab, if not both.

Bloomberg headline saying RDShell PLC raids the North Sea physical oil market on Monday in a forceful trading play, buying the most cargoes of benchmark grades in a single day in 10 years in the S&P global Platts pricing window... similar thing happened not so long ago when the Chinese bought alot of cargoes on one day.. I haven't seen these types of headlines before.. Bodes well for Brent $60 sooner than expected. Plus vaccine news and possibilities of other manufactures using their production facilities to speed up production. Think some Kraken cargoes are being sold with "premium plus" pricing .

Can’t you move the BE down $5 to $27 and Brent up $5 to $60 to achieve the same $10

Our local has completed the over 70s. (First jab)

1350 / 36 mths.. bit like a repayment on a car. The last 500 zone is when you think you can afford a newer one.

Mariner has been very expensive and recently had it's production profile downgraded slightly.. Bressay is even more difficult and expensive if you go down the same route with its own platform.. The only solution if you didn't want to wait a very very long time is to offload it to Enquest. Start in a small way with a DC hub attached back to Kraken.. In 10 years time when Kraken is producing a lot less, potentially move the FPSO nearer Bressay and attach what's left of Kraken back to the FPSO (renamed FPSO Bressay). This FPSO has a shelf life of 20 years plus.. so this is a very long journey.... not that the stock market cares.

AB has a lot of confidence in the 2P and 2C of the assets.. the stock market only looks at the next 3 years and if the debt will be repaid.. The tide will turn when we see the RNS's showing early debt repayments in 2021.. I'd like to see $120m paid by April 2021. ( even $40m in Jan 2021 would be fine , if you want to do it monthly, rather than quarterly).

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-johnson-johnsons-single-shot-vaccine-85-effective-against-most-severe-symptoms-12202200

I'll expect the 2H 2020 accounts to be similar to 1H 2020.. Only thing positive is that some impairments from 1H 2020 on Kraken were based on lower future oil price forecasts.. " Lower oil price assumptions resulted in non-cash post-tax impairments of $251.6 million".. That's similar to the market cap of the entire company.. (10.8p)

"The Base case is in line with the Group’s production guidance and uses an oil price assumption of $40/bbl for the remainder of 2020, $47/bbl for 2021, with a longer-term price assumption of $60/bbl and are broadly in line with current consensus."

The average for 2021 might be nearer $60, so bodes well for not having any more large impairments.. I would reverse out the last impairment as much as possible to make the balance sheet look prettier.. This will strengthen the balance sheet much more than any trading profit for 2H 2020. Brent $65 plus from 2022 seems plausible given Biden is in.. and Shale has to produce it's Tier 2 stock.. which needs slightly higher prices.

Vaccines need 6mths plus to make a difference. Even in the UK, they have done 7.5m, but will probably need till end of Feb 2021 to do the remainder of the first 15m (so 2 weeks extra).. April 2021 is really the ideal time to see the start of some return to normality assuming we continue with 250k vaccines a day in the UK.

Today the price is 12.30p .. surely it has to go up from here.

J&J expecting to deliver 2m doses of its one-shot vaccine as soon as it receives emergency authorisation. Expecting to deliver 100m doses in 1H 2021. I guess they are very onfident.

VERY Big news (for next week).

This one is for u Romaron
https://www.wsj.com/articles/novavax-vaccine-is-89-effective-against-covid-19-in-u-k-study-11611867720

At 31 October 2020, net debt was c.$1,388 million

Y/e Dec 2021: Target :$900m
Y/e Dec 2022: Target $500m
Y/e Dec 2023 : Target Net debt zero..
Still not convinced the premium is that significant, but we should have an update in Feb 21 and be motoring by Spring.

WED: 1 yr moratorium on new oil leases on federal land , per WPost , but existing permits ok , .. should add a buck or 2 . Get past WTI $54 and head to $61 after Bidens 100 day vaccination program .,

If your over 70, it's likely the NHS have already sent you an invitation in the post.. but it's delayed due to issues at the sorting office.. so either phone the GP to get a text message invite to their own centre or book online on the main NHS site for an appointment :eg Excel with your NHS number.. you never needed the piece of paper in the post anyway...... just need a confirmed appointment. Don't waste a vaccine.. we need to do 500k a day so fill those appointment slots asap. GL