Member Info for hitman1a

We still need another 6 weeks to draw down US stocks to the 5 year average. Add in another 10m vaccinations and we might see some optimism returning.. April 2021 seems like a good starting point.. I think all students should stay at home until Summer Term.. and double up on masks, including wearing them outdoors too..

nice 200k buy.. at 13.5p

Guess AB has too many already.

20p and beyond... (how much more depends on Brent)

Pretty much what we have been saying.

Yes if you think this is a momentum trade, please sell when you have made some money.. As the Macrovoices man says.. anything that goes up 100% in a month can also go down 50% next month..

Then again he says WTi $75 by year end if Art Berman is correct in saying US production tails off in 2H 2021. What price would our SP be with gross FCF near $1b/annum (before Magnus outflows and other debt repayments). Use Pellecalc or L3Tsoft for more accurate numbers.. ( both compatible with Excel)

It's a speculative buy based on whether/when you think Brent will increase $5 or $10 in 2021 .

When ? well perhaps $60 is very close since the Far East is buying spot cargoes.. The US will clearly supply the extra demand , draining its stocks quicker and driving the price of WTI slightly higher to encourage more investment and production.. It won't be as much as needed, so prices will have to go higher still.. Wait and see. but the speculative part is nothing to do with the Company.. ( eg drilling results or farmout/farmin etc).. it's just a play on Brent and when higher prices happen..

The Investing.com website is showing the Feb 21 contract which rolls over on say 20 Jan to March 21 contract. At least wait for Feb 20 when the March rollover for the April contract to see what price Brent is: My guess is higher as lots of vaccinations would have been done. Plenty of reports confirming 200k a day and increasing to 300k.. Demand for actual oil in April will be high.. so between now and Feb 20th could see a decent $5 increase in Brent..

It would do 10% next week even without Baron.. let's see how much Asia bids up Brent Monday am.. 40p would be fine in a Brent $65 plus environment. The Von Traps might buy this upto 22p quite quickly.

What are you on Ammu ?.. no need to raise money at all.. we have non-ring fenced cash... we are swimming in it.. The responses and solutions the Company gave when prices were much lower are still applicable today.. if needed.

Clearly you missed the boat: but you can still see it.. Baron screwed up your plan..

We could easily push WTI to $56.50 in the next few weeks../month.. given demand from China and extra spot market buyers from Japan and India etc . All of a sudden the Enquest forward cashflows are significant enough to add say £200m to the market cap of the company.. Whether you use Excel or Winforecast or something more sophisticated, the reduced worldwide capex in 2021 is helping bring down the excess stocks rapidly.. There is fear amongst shorters in the oil market... it was always an easy win watching OPEC+ argue and doing the least possible.. Now the reverse is on the cards. so prices or natural balance will see Brent rise into the low $60s very soon..

I believe there is an urgency to get the pricing of the OPEC basket oil price to $60 plus in Jan 21 asap. Plenty of news articles now mentioning backwardation, panic buying of North Sea oil cargoes, i even anticipate potential limits on exports of US oil.... why can't we get back to 22p by the end of Jan 21 too. Sentiment has changed in light of the Saudi 1m reduction for 2 mths.. 40p in a $65 Brent environment seems possible again. GL

Hi L3T,
I've reviewed some posts around mid Sep 2020 and you guided us to 150 MM 1P. Think we should still use it until we get the real numbers in April 2021. Can we call it 7 years? , 3 for debt repayment , 4 for equity?

"2P reserves" = 1P (proven reserves) + probable reserves, hence "proved AND probable.

I'm thinking 2P ( excluding Bressay) on 3 key assets are close to 1P.

"Overall, net 2P reserves reduced to 213 MMboe at the end of 2019, down 13.3% on the 245 MMboe at the end of 2018. Since the Company was formed with around 81 MMboe of 2P reserves, the Group has achieved a compound average reserves growth of 10.2%. The Group continues to have substantial 2C resources of around 173 MMboe, primarily located at
Magnus, Kraken and PM8/Seligi, and include the addition of 2C resources associated with the Group’s Production Sharing Contract (‘PSC’) at PM409, offshore Malaysia.

I'm guessing the Company produces 10% of it's 2P. If Heather and Broom/Thistle were written down in 2019, can we say our 2P at the beginning of 2021 is around 150 MMboe.. I know we discussed this before. so i'll have to go back etc.. but surely we don't have to wait till April 2021 for the full accounts .. or do we..? Maybe the market thinks it's around 100MMboe.

Can anyone recall the conclusions we had before.. 2C looks solid.

Current policies can push Brent to $63 and WTi to $59.. in Q1 2021
Let OPEC+ tweak from April 2021

SP: too early to double.. only at the start of the recovery .

Current policies can push Brent to $63 and WTi to $59.. in Q1 2021
Let OPEC+ tweak from April 2021

SP: too early to double.. only at the start of the recovery .

Calculator at end of ruler says 16p ...allow a few days to get there.

$80m : must be an error/typo. $800m ?

That means Brent might be nearer $57 plus premium , much earlier than the $59 forecast by BOA by mid year. . Accordingly the SP could motor up by end of Feb quite a bit as we have almost a whole year of decent cashflow , Most OPEC + members must be wondering if other assets like Tesla , Apple , Bitcoin can increase substantially, why can’t oil at least get to $60 straightaway if vaccines are being deployed in the millions .

FXempire under a bullish scenario forecasting WTi $53.60 Feb 20th , that’s past the UK point at which they expect to have delivered 13.9m injections. Isn’t the Vaccine minister Zahawi the same chap who was connected to GKP , He confirmed on Newsnight the other evening that he would deliver them , ... no one believed him imv .

Yeah.. but we do have a couple of cards to play:
1. Biden coming in and environmental policy changes..
2. Vaccines
3. Low US rig numbers and the eventual production tail off in 2H
4. The likes of Ryan Air and EasyJet expecting to fly in Spring..

A couple of articles suggesting buyers of Saudi oil in India/China and Japan will need to go the spot market to buy oil.. this might increase prices by $2 in Q1 2021. Goldman still see Brent $65 by end of 2021.. but we really need $65 today..
I'm not expecting the UK to vaccinate the urgent list in 6 weeks,... more like 12 weeks.
If you can inflate Gold, Copper other commodities etc , Oil should reflate also.. maybe we can see Brent $60 by April 2021.

listen to the OPEC+ meeting on live now .... and you'll feel more optimistic about immediate support for the oil price.