Member Info for hitman1a

I believe the UK is genuinely trying to set up 1,000 vaccination centres..
I believe the UK can receive 2m doses a week.. it's not a lot: eg India is ramping production to 100m doses / mth.
I believe staffing 1,000 centres to deliver 285 injections each day (7 days a week) over 6 weeks will be tad difficult, but possible with military assistance to cover a few shifts.

GL. but with these extra Saudi cuts: Brent $60 ( WTi $55) in April looks possible.. I see the gap between Brent and WTI widening slightly. It's now $53.70 with a gap of $3.70.

Good news from Saudi with extra 1m cuts for 2 mths... and good conclusion to OPEC+ meeting.

I've heard 2 interviews in the last 24 hrs.. all pointing to higher oil prices by end of year. A. Sen see's Brent $65 by year end as Shale isn't attracting the investment to drill as before and another pundit on CNN suggesting WTi $65 at somepoint in 2021.

Have to agree with Pelle and L3T.. It's easy to forgot about the other loan repayments and BP Magnus outflows, so we need Brent $60 ish plus premium.. ie FCF $700/annum.. Perhaps most of the SP gains will happen in Q1 2022. Brent $65 seems too far away but i'll settle for Brent $58 plus premium by April 2021.. and SP at 18p..

Kazakhstan have checked the inside rims of their underpants.. all clear, but have agreed with Russia. The other members don't wear any so have voted the right way.. Higher prices more than compensate for any small increase in production quota.

Russia don't want to cut to make up for the historic overproduction so are pressing for a 500k increase to release extra quota capacity. A cheap fix..

seems to relate to 4 years worth of service charges.

Call the Sheriffs

Target 13p today
GL

But there would have been supplier capex invoices from 1H 2020 to pay for, so perhaps your correct on Nov/Dec 2020 debt repayment, but I wouldn't use the movement in RCF to Oct 2020 as a base. I would just start Jan 2021 estimated debt repayment with a fresh start.

I don't know about hedging oil at these levels when the expectation is higher.. and critical to add value to shareholders pockets... but smart people at Enquest might have hedged part of our foreign exchange risk for 2021.. Big difference $/£ from 1.22 to 1.37 .

Hi L3T
I've read your earlier posts and see you still expect $150m of the RCF to be outstanding in Oct 2021.. but I'm more optimistic about oil prices going forward than even say 2 weeks ago. I can't dispute the $27 FCF target number the company gave.. given we were $25 for Nov/Dec 2020, but we have an update in early Feb so not long to wait.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/5-oil-market-factors-to-watch-in-2021-200549291
This lady is sort of changing her outlook after many years. I think this may be her first article that is sort of positive, especially with the new Biden administration.

Another indicator apart from the Oxford vaccine, is that last night I saw a new ad on TV. A holiday company offering free change of date if affected by covid.. ie "jab and go".. book now .. etc Airline activity is going to bounce back strongly in summer if you believe 2m jabs a week from mid Jan 2021.

Also my relative in US who is a fracking engineer but mainly now looks at reserve write-downs for larger oilers says $60-$70 is the comfort range for WTI to justify large capex.. where they are drilling 25 holes etc.. $55 average in 2021 might have to do for the existing business , but they are very hesitant to deploy large amounts of capex. Too much experience now of Shale issues (parent/child) to drill like before but accepted there are those in the US addicted to drilling without looking at all the costs and issues. The banks don't believe the BS either and the depressed share prices just confirm the low profitability. Yes the rig numbers might increase but the volume might still not compensate for natural declines and extra demand once it comes back.

I'm only looking for Brent to climb near $60 as Bof A and GS have suggested. and then reassess the Enq earnings. If we get stability at Brent $60 for 3 years, then we can add a bit more to the SP for the 2P and 2C that comes into play. Those low cost drills are always going to have short payback periods.. that doesn't change.. and we have plenty of targets.

Also I'm not sure we need Richard Hall to babysit 3k of production in Malaysia , rising to 7k.. and why we need 6 mths to do it. There must be a bigger role for him coming up, together with Farina Khan.

So if we deduct 4k for Malaysia and add back 7k for Magnus ( I prefer using 16k estimate, rather than 18k), we are at about 53k daily production for Jan 2021. It will have to do.. but we need Brent nearer $55 plus our say $3 premium. Then we can deleverage $50m /mth.. but $38.5m/mth is the minimum. The extra $11.5m/mth x 36 gives $414m, /1.36/1695 shares is a valuation of 18p.

At the moment we are at Brent $52, so the extra £45m/mth only leaves $6.5m/mth.. 10p.. we should with vaccines get to Brent $55 within Q1 2021 and see the SP rise to 18p. but i really want 30p.. which means we need Brent $60 plus $3 premium.. All indications are that Brent $60 will be reached in early 2H 2021 and the SP will follow later.

Question is can we maintain 53k/day in 2021.. and will the £/$ exchange rate work against us.

BP want to divest a few assets by 2025. We know from Magnus that these assets need a fair bit of extra maintenance and upgrades just to maintain production where it is. We know BP can give us a loan at 1% for the initial deposit which could be repayable from our 2022 and 2023 free cashflow. So that still leaves us the Rcf to pay off in 2021 , The transaction could be dated from tomorrow with completion in 2H 2021, but cashflow backdated to 1 Jan 2021. We should use our experience from Magnus to pitch a fair offer. Overall the NPV should be positive and give us a good uplift in SP...assuming we don't need another rights issue to fund it. The only caveat is that this week seems the wrong time to issue this sort of RNS, so the 1 trade UT is probably nothing.

Only 1 share : ie RNS in the morning. ?

Speculate BP Andrews and Shearwater assets are coming our way , now PMO don't want them.

If there came a day when people actually wanted this stock.. (apart from regulars).. the SP would above 20p

Even the PMO man said you have to keep drilling to keep your unit costs low.. so Enq drilling the low cost fillers in 2022 is the right decision.

(that's price and posts)

Brent $51.08

Note the time and number of posts on the previous post.. identical.. could be a sign,

The tide has turned

Managed to get 6,000 shares (11.24p) and another batch of 6,626(11.32p)

What a struggle ..!!!

Can sell easily.. but still not able to buy.

Can't buy anything via Barclays..

Once J&J and AZ release their versions. we should see Brent at $55 plus.. light at the end of the tunnel etc.

In the interim.. content where Brent is today, but does feel like we are clutching straws given the SP.