Member Info for hitman1a

BLOOMBERG headline mentions Opec chief says next decision will help speed up oil recovery.

Yep it's pocket tap time. Roll back those cuts further. It's not just Asda's price .
OPEC + members are skint.

SP nearly out of the Porsche model range

Good spot. life changing sponsorship .

I do recall AB sponsors quite a few more on top of the ones Enquest pays for..

Exxon North Sea bid deadline was end of October , wonder if we made a no cash upfront bid ?

Probably best not to watch TV and use the phone at the same time Spindok.. Eating a Cheeseburger or Mayo Chicken whilst driving should be ok, but a Big Mac would be too messy.

Currie of GS says to be long on oil , but only after Winter.

So we need to see capex cuts for another 9 mths and at least 6 mths of a vaccination program to release pent up demand for holidays etc and normal 2019 oil usage.. China is already at 2019 levels, but Russia and Saudi thinking the West is just months behind is wrong. It's at least 6 to 8 mths , so they should dial back production cuts to -9.7 in 1H 2021 to help the price.. Anything below Brent $55 should be a signal that immediate action is required. They can invade a country without too much thought, but dialing back oil production is too hard a decision to make.

https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Goldman-Expects-A-Structural-Bull-Market-For-Commodities-In-2021.html

Iran imv preparing for a blockade next year after Trump is out of the way.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-To-Import-North-Korean-missiles-In-25-Year-Military-Deal-With-China.html

American Airlines saying only 50% seat demand on domestic flights in US, just 25% seat demand on International at the moment.

South West slightly more optimistic.. only losing $12m/day.. releasing the middle seat in planes soon to sell more tickets to try and get back to break-even.. ( albeit with benefits of handouts). Confirmed waiting for vaccine and better testing to get back to normal..

Brent near $43 and we need $55 average over next 3 years to eat up the debt : Pfizer /Oxford/J&J all need to deliver . CEO Adobe sits on Pfizer board and he mentioned in the Bloomberg interview last night that they were optimistic.. Shale should start to decline in Feb next year at the same time vaccines get going.. so $55 should be achievable so long as OPEC+ don't dump all the extra production onto the market too early.

Wasn't that Obama speech last night amazing....

Bloomberg just had a headline . # Heavy oil scarcity to boost Canadian oil sands prices next year. #
Guessing pipeline completions will give takeaway access to supply US shortages in 2021?

So 2H 2021, once vaccinated people are going on holiday again. WTI might be $55 by then to encourage more production to keep up with demand.

Just nice to know what we would get. A couple of bidders in auction might deliver a reasonable price.

Perhaps Enquest should also put itself up for sale and see what offers it gets. I think Cairn could swoop in for say £500m.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Suncor-May-Sell-Stake-In-North-Sea-Oilfields.html

I do remember looking at the Brent charts in the dream.. just a glance with my left eye.... but it was around $52.45 before the jump to $80 .. so we have some time yet before the big event.. Predictive text says cause is either an attack on Saudi installations and/or a blockade of the straits by Iran.. With Trump gone, Iran gains confidence and it sets off a sequence of events .

Pencil in Brent $52.45 for 2021.. and then the Iranians respond with their version of "make my day".

I had a dream last night.. I saw Brent spike to $80 plus , .. but I woke up before I had a chance to look at the Enquest share price.

Just wondering what would cause a jump of such magnitude..
1: Change in OPEC policy : from protecting market share to setting a price range.
2. Change in US President : Trump to Biden and change in fracking permit policies :
3. Change in availability of vaccines: from none to 20 plus in 6 mths, boosting worldwide travel
4. Larger than expected natural declines.
5. Larger than expected capex cuts.

Will they all come together as a Category 5
GL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-china-54582150
£45.. first queue of many to come.

I'm still thinking Pfizer vaccine will get US emergency use approval in third week of November 2020 and UK Oxford will start injecting care-homes residents in Jan 2021. People over 50 can travel abroad if they have been vaccinated. Brent will get boosted to $50 plus when long-haul airlines re-start, .. which depends on the pace of the vaccination program.

We need a process of adaptation to get as close to normal as possible whilst waiting for a jab. 10p is very undervalued if you think a vaccine is just around the corner.

Barkindo just said Opec and Opec+ will do what it takes to prevent another collapse. Wait for next meeting on 30 Nov/1 Dec to reassess where we are..

Nice to see the Bonds extended to Oct 2023. wonder how much debt we will still have by then. IF the IEA says there is currently a 4m bopd draw and Shale on current fracking crews will tail off another 2m bopd, that leaves a gap for OPEC/Opec+ to fill. Guess it's just too early for any new action but bodes well for higher prices next year.. I would prefer Opec to dial back to 8.7 mbopd for 6 mths from Jan 1, rather than add in another 2 mbopd to fill a gap which hasn't appeared yet..

https://electronicsward.com/2020/10/13/shale-binge-has-spoiled-us-reserves-prime-investor-warns/

It's best not to rush in.. plenty of assets about that will be dressed up with makeup from Revlon/Chanel/D&G/New Look now harder times are here.. Probably time to admit like the Majors, we shouldn't be investing more money in the oil business.. so only the best hand me downs should be looked at.. and only if AB thinks Enquest can add value with no cash upfront.. Brent $55 doesn't seem too far away.. I wonder if Enquest are still comfortable saying the business can support $1b debt in the long term.. If so, then the banks will be willing to support more acquisitions.. So it baffles me with 65k/day we are sub £200m market cap..

https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-aramco-strategy-insight-int-idUSKBN26S17V .. nice to know what they are thinking.

Seems to me if the PMO acquisition price is valued on current market and debt, we should start climbing as soon as actual debt reduction becomes more visible. Nothing new , but the PMO issue confirms the theoretical plan that our market cap should trend upwards towards Cairn. I guess we spent our September cash on Bressay and other bits. But perhaps the Company should issue a monthly RNS advising how much has been repaid against the RCF.. $25m/mth seems like a good start for Q4 2020. If Cairn get the Indian money, they could acquire Enquest. Maybe Chrysaor and Cairn will fight over it.. Seems like 60p in 3 years time is on the cards, just based on debt reduction and a $50-$60 Brent price as per what Saudi think might happen... I'd like to see annual capex restricted at $40m/annum and decom expenses in the same ballpark. No more drilling for at least 2 years.. not even low-cost ones that have quick paybacks.. Still think money spent on share buybacks enhances value for shareholders better than the low-cost drills.. Someone has to have a conversation with the bank.. give us permission to repurchase some every month.. reverse out the damage from the rights and placing.. Bill Gates says rich countries could complete vaccination programmes by end of 2021, so perhaps another 2 years beyond that for the rest to catch up.. Airlines international flights perhaps normalize in 2024 . Saudi nudged up the Nov basket to $43 and still no sign of Shale declining production this quarter.. perhaps beginning of Q2 next year..

Saudi are just waiting for Shale and others to decline.. keeping quiet .. surrounding the enemy and watching them starve to death without drawing a sword.