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It must be only a day or so , there is a spelling mistake . Cedit facility . Plus the credit facility is $425m as of Feb 2020, so why advertise $475m Dec 19. We must be back to deleveraging from Sep 20 and I want the 3rd Sep to emphasise this . SVT shows how cheap loans from BP are compared to the others . We need to be in capex maintenance mode for 2 years , pay off $1b, reduce annual interest costs and then look at Bressay only if it’s tied back to Kraken . Small refinance in early 2023 to allow for Bressay capex and cashflow timing as we get to Oct 23 , perhaps just another simple credit facility.

Good sub sections on Analyst Coverage (emails of analysts), Debt (nice summary) and Factsheet ( easy to read) summaries)

Nice effort..

considering OPEC's latest revisions to its forecast included a decline in its demand expectations and a substantial increase in supply from the Americas, it is unlikely that the group would revise curtailments any lower,

analysts at TD Securities explained.

As demand growth continues to normalize into 2021, OPEC+ supply discipline and US shale oil industry weakness all suggest that the existing inventory overhang should erode materially over the next four months and beyond.

A fierce rebalancing should continue to support prices for the time being.

“Based on the average projections of various institutions, including OPEC, EIA and the IEA, it is estimated that the world will reach about 97% of pre-pandemic oil demand during the fourth quarter - which is a big recovery from the huge falls in April and May,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Maybe China in Q4.. but ROW needs a bit more time.. If the above happens we have a large supply deficit in Q4 draining worldwide stocks at a very fast rate. If the OPEC+ cuts taper into 2022.. we are going north to Brent $60 very early in 2021 and staying there for some time. We should get Brent $50 by early Oct.. 16p plus imv.

Quite a number of recent interviews on Bloomberg regarding Airlines/Airports and Cruise ship companies.. all working hard to add more measures to restart and increase business activity. I'm ok with Brent $50 by xmas and stability next year say at $55/$60 .. a decent year in 2021 should get the market cap near £500m.. and we have fresh assets in Kraken, Magnus and Malaysia to carry us forward.. The older assets were worse than expected.. our mistake we invested when we did. Bressay seems like a gift if it can be attached in the same way as the Western Flank.. In a way we have a much better business model.. reserves are better and debt should over the next 18 mths get down to comfortable levels. I aim for debt levels around $500m, plus any extra for Bressay development.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Are-Oil-Prices-About-To-See-A-Correction.amp.html

$60 Brent target first half next year ...nice

https://m.investing.com/analysis/the-energy-report-oil-flows-200534285

Good timing , Brent grinding higher and perhaps the UT today and yesterday confirms an imminent breakout.

The turnover has been so low.. it would need a $5/$10 improvement to encourage buyers to pick up low hanging fruit..
If we are above $50 at the time of the interims on 3 Sep.. how does that change AB's outlook. Surely with costs of $27 in 2021 he would be fairly upbeat on cashflow.. but just need to stop being a company that accumulates tax losses.

Thanks L7, I had forgotten about the Sep hedging date reply. I do remember several discussions at the time about non-Kraken oil being sold in an environment where the screen price and actual price achieved might have had a $10 discount in the general market for everyone, so will be glad this segment ends in September.. that bodes well for Q4.

Very impressed with the interview i just saw regarding the Russian vaccine. It has 2 vectors so can be used for the second dose too.. is different from Oxford vaccine as it's already using a base approved years ago so already tried and tested on Ebola patients.. so no need for 3rd phase.. Apparently 20 countries have placed orders with the Russians for 1m doses. and it will be manufactured in 5 countries..

Personally i'd like to see a tablet form that can be produced and taken much easier.. like Malaria tablets.

Short term SP problem is we have hedging at $33 and $45.

For the full year, EnQuest has hedged approximately 8.1 MMbbls of oil with an average price of c.$45/bbl. In the first four months of the year, c.2.9 MMbbls of oil hedges with an average floor price of c.$65/bbl, c.0.5 MMbbls with an average floor price of $52/bbl and a further c.0.7 MMbbls with an average price of c.$31/bbl were settled. From May, EnQuest has hedges in place for c.4.0 MMbbls with an average floor price of c.$33/bbl.

Thinking we could still reduce debt by $200m to $1,100m by end of year and then more substantially next year, perhaps to below $500m by 31 Dec 2021. Albeit I expect the FDP on Bressay to be submitted in early 2021 and some cash to be used in 2021. Say 1m bopd /mth at average of $41 ( 45+45+33) : is that say 50% of monthly production? The Sp should still move up with Brent, but only when nearer the $48-$50 range. Brent wants to make a move to $50 over the next 10 weeks.

Certainly slept better last night with the Bressay reserves. but i think we need to watch out for Chrysaor. They should be thinking of buying Enquest next year once the FDP has been agreed. All other old assets now gone and just left with a clean slate of Magnus, Kraken and Malaysia.. plus development potential.. Sort of think we should now be valued nearer to PMO , ( Above £300m): ie 17.7p

Feel 13.6p with a run to 16p over the next Qtr makes sense for short term money.

Hi L3T, I tend to look at the Statoil FPSO Peregrino for what is possible to do. Impressive enough that one FPSO is able to service 2 very large hubs, but also various articles show what Statoil has done when expansion after phase 1 is out of reach of the existing facilities. Normally 3 yrs plus when you order something top side, but phase 1 normally is injectors and producers tied back to FPSO and Enquest said this morning it's low cost drilling. I think 2 years from Jan next year should be ample time. Western Flank was about a year and I don't think the pipeline distance of 12km from Bressay to Kraken FPSO is an issue

Avoiding a new FPSO, and a tieback to Kraken FPSO, means low cost drilling at Bressay similar to what Enquest does in Maylasia, bring a bit on at a time, Just like Enquest has done with the Kraken Western Flank. Perhaps $50m 3 well drill plan, a drill centre , pumping station and a very long pipeline, probably with another pumping station along the way. Do you connect to an existing DC at Kraken, or direct into the FPSO.?.. Given Bressay is only a third of the size of Mariner, bear in mind the lease cost on Kraken reduces dramatically after 7 years, you end up with very profitable oil. It's a good deal for all parties.. I must admit I have been worried if we had enough reserves going forward and this deal sorts the issue out comprehensively. We don't need a RI to finance the drills or extra capex ex imv. It should be very low cost to replicate what has been done on the Western Flank and apply the same on Bressay. Guessing first oil by mid/late 2022 .

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/256109/equinor-bressay-enquest/

https://www.rigzone.com/news/bj_services_files_chapter_11-21-jul-2020-162779-article/

Thought BJ Services filing for chapter 11 this week was a significant event this week. Almost invincible in the fracking sector for many years and now brought down to its knees due to the lack of activity.. this despite a glut of DUCs available. A sign that Shale production might struggle to get production back to where it was. The Brent 200 dma is $48, and Enquest 200 dam is 17.7p, I think we could see these converge in late Q3...

Thanks for the clarity on the numbers L7 and Pelle. just wondering if you felt the Brent price was now pegged to the Opec basket.. ie movements up in Brent happen once the Saudi OSP has been set. I think Saudi plan to raise it $1/month for the next 18 mths , ie over the term of the tapered cuts into Q4 2021. so $60 in late 2021/ early 2022 might the penciled in destination point.

Probably a bit disapointed with a 18p target a year and a half away. But if we get $5 more than the numbers used in the calcs, perhaps we can see 20p/22p in Q4 2021. $10 extra ie $57 in 2021 gets us a proper rerate.. Let's see what OPEC+ can do to get us at least another $5 for 2H 2020. Target $48

Think JS was asked the question and replied the decom works were to be carried out over several years, and they anticipated an annual spend of $25m/$30m .

In many ways , my numbers for Enquest are similar to the AKER BP numbers Jefferies has on the table, which is also a buy,

Aker BP: Costs $26.3, sales discount $3.2 and net cashback $18/barrel. : Total $47.5: but it has a multiple of 4.5