Member Info for hitman1a

One more thing Squif , if the $25 includes all costs including leasing the FPSO , then we shouldn’t include the long term liability in the $4.2b , ....that improves the value left for shareholders quite a bit.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

A vaccine by September 2020.. ( if it works).. there are so many articles in the last 2 weeks regarding treatments and vaccines.. I heard if 80% of people wear a mask, it reduces the infection rate to a 1/12th. …. If I was Mr Nike, I would change the "just do it" slogan to "just wear it".. in my next advertising campaign.

Hi Squif, I guess AB will be judged on his actions.. not that everything he says goes, but we have spent so many years keeping the older assets going to get us though the debacle of Kraken. At the moment i'm content with the closures. Now we don't need to spend good money after bad on projects that are only good enough in a high priced environment. an extra $5 on everything going forward : ie $55 , gets us $1b extra for shareholders.. $60 adds $2b extra for shareholders.. wait and see …. I would think OPEC+ need Brent $55/$60 asap even if demand is lower in the short term.. Long term they can bring back some extra oil to prevent it going too high.. …but I know I wouldn't.

If we are going to deduct $4.2b total liabilities, then we should add the inventory and trade receivables of $360m, which improves the $800m to $1160m. 68c or 55p.

Plus upside when Brent is above $50. We know Shale needs to be around $45 to break even, so I think we will get there sooner than GS thinks as demand will be better than expected in Q3. Capex maintenance only from now on. Disappointed with the 10p close on Friday... expected better, but Brent did improve after the close so Monday could see something positive . 13p if Brent gets to $36 next week.

Would like to see 12p tomorrow by eod.

With extra 1m Saudi cut, better demand and extended opec+ cuts, GS target of $40 in Q4 should be seen in Q3. Perhaps the expected price range between June and September is now $35 to $45, and $50 in Q4 2020.?.

But Goldman is bullish about 2021, recently increasing its WTI price forecast to $51.38 a barrel from $48.50, and its Brent forecast to $55.63 from $52.50. By the fourth quarter of next year, Goldman predicts Brent prices at $65 a barrel— where they were before the COVID-19 outbreak began in China back in January.

My Dec 2021 30p target should be much higher if the above prices are achieved and assuming we pay off the Oct 2021 debt tranche . GL guess 52k/55k production in 2021 would be just fine.

Nice , GS is expecting a deficit in June, so these are good indicators their analysis is correct. Not too happy with their assessment that prices would remain at $30 for Q3, but that was before Saudi announced another 1m cut. GS said to expect $40 in Q4, so perhaps we will see it in early October. $50 by Q2 2021 sounds about right. The longs won't re-enter until the excess has been used which should be noticeable in Q3 when the likes of Ryan Air start a partial service and Opec + extend their cuts as they are for at least the rest of the year. 15p by Oct, then 24p next April, 30p plus Dec 2021 ?

The Saudi oil Minister has said they have to be ahead of the curve.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-says-oil-demand-will-bounce-back-2020-05-1029186826

We should see Brent improve to $50 at somepoint. Goldman says only when oil on floating storage units has been used up. Guess that's Q4, but I'd say slightly higher prices in 2021 going by Goldman's oil demand numbers. As 48 states in US have opened up in some way, I'd say Goldman are correct with June showing a deficit which starts the drawdown of oil stocks and the slow rise of oil prices. At Brent $50 , Enquest makes exceedingly good profits for shareholders and other interested parties like debt holders. If in doubt , wear a mask !

There is a strong likelihood that oil prices experience an extremely violent move higher sometime in the next eighteen months if not even sooner.

Morning Squif,
was referring to oil .. numbers of years left.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/pioneer-natl-rsc-results-call/update-2-top-us-shale-producer-sees-oil-price-recovery-continuing-idUKL1N2CP18M

Currie initially said to expect a violent price reversal upwards in June, and then toned it down.. but Pioneer gives good reasons why WTi might get to $45 this year.. If Brent gets to $50, then we should have a $25 margin to deleverage with by Q4. With $45m/mth.. I can't see the SP staying at 12p.. We clearly need this asap , as we don't have an indefinite amount of reserves.. which puts a brake on the SP flying.. but 40p was reasonable target a few months ago.

That's a useful insight from Currie.. Bloomberg had some interesting people on today talking about 20% of US unemployment. Guess they need to get going soon.. but it will be a slow start up.. as most business' don't want to rehire.. If he's right about the demand exceeding supply in June, then the drainage rate of 5m/day is quite strong and will support prices.. August does look like a nice time for a positive revaluation to say $35/$40.. which gives Enquest the ability to deleverage at $27m/mth and perhaps still drill something at PM8/Seligi later this year as well. ….at the moment I think natural declines and a lack of fresh capex will help show a much stronger drainage rate in Q4... and higher prices.

AB said all production was hedged in Q2.. 2020

Kraken hedged above Brent , the rest below but not a badly at the physical difference between screen and actual..
My understanding is that we get a few bucks above Brent on Kraken and a few bucks below on the rest. In effect we get the screen price I usually look at on investing.com on say a June contract. But it's a floating hedge in Q2. Q1 was fine. April might we ok at say $25 FCF and we should trend upwards from here.. Our ability to deleverage has been curtailed and our balance sheet only adds value if this process is taking place. So the SP will move when this starts again, which might be several months after the price of Brent has recovered to say $45/$50.. as actual debt repayments have to be made.

I guess we need to ask the company again or expert, but if the shipping bunker prices on VLSFO and MGO are $257/$263 on Singapore destinations, then converting tons to barrels at 7.33 gives $35. Less a buck/buck50 for purchasing incentives and we get Kraken at $33 ( investing.com showing $30 at the moment). My guess is 10% premium ie $3 is what we are getting on Kraken , which is also the same sort of impression I got from listening to AB's replies..

Could be way off the mark, but anything that gets us FCF for Q2 is fine with me.. Q3 and Q4 have to be much better for whole countries, let alone Enquest. In fact prices have to be much higher. $60 plus.

Hi Chilting , I read that , the 38% number looks about right , but I have doubts on the premium number . On the shipping bunker price website , does anyone know which one is the best comparison, Does appear Singapore has better prices than Rotterdam in general , so your ship tracking data does provide some comfort, thanks .

When I listened to AB explain our Q2 hedging , I didn’t get the impression that the premium was this much , I was left with it might be a few bucks . We did discuss the larger number earlier in the year when the IMO 2020 regulations came in. At that point the premium was very large... a number in the range the analyst uses, but I doubt it is that number at the moment. ??

Google showing a 1.9m vol trade on chart : 10.45am

Just did another top up with my PMO sale proceeds , but it wasn't the above.

Polyfiller action by SAUDI to smooth the rough patches in Q2.

As I wanted, the Saudis have reduced the discount... from osp

Breaking news. Nice measure to prop up prices.

it needs to be negative to go boom.. imv

I guess a few weeks away when storage is fuller and pipeline carriers refuse to take it.. if they introduce a 10% space buffer then that will put more pressure on producers to decrease supplies and push prices up a little higher.