Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
https://www.cityam.com/budget-exclusive-hunt-weighs-up-price-floor-on-windfall-tax-over-fears-key-north-sea-project-could-collapse/
Seems positive?
Last year, selling a week before ex div would have been better from memory, but I'm targeting £4.75 by year end.. so pick up 31p in dividends this year and from 450p , 25p in share price rise.. 56p in returns.. if you just hold.. Supported by new buy back scheme and slightly better dividend next year.. GL
Last year it trended higher to about £4.60 and then a week before ex div date faded into it , so yes selling at £4.60 ish would have been the best idea , But this year is different , We have the update on the 9th and the expected buyback starting , so I expect the drop post ex div to be supported . At the moment , I still expect to trend higher this month. We saw £4.50 this morning and I think we will see it again tomorrow.
They haven't mentioned any special dividends.. just final dividend of 21p and buy back to start when final accounts released. (9 March).. Amount of buy back is still unknown, but could be in the £200m-£300m range.. perhaps higher .
I still expect from 440p to push the SP to the 465p range before the ex-div date (think 31 March) , and I can decide whether I want capital gain or div.. So I could be selling before ex div if it goes up as described.. just depends how good the update on 9 March is.
I think Hunt realises he has made a mistake , he should make an adjustment, at least say it only applies on production that realises a price of say $100 plus , and b/fwd losses can be used against the windfall tax as well , I topped up a little today. We could have a little SP positivity into the budget , even though oil prices are weaker.
They said they were going to start another buyback scheme when the 2022 full year results are issued on 9th March , subject to market conditions . Given the ex div date is 31 March , I think this could rally after 9 March so long as the buy backs are juicy enough ,
Secondly at 440p , even if it went to 419 ex div allowing for 21p div, I think it would rally back to 440p fairly quickly given the new buybacks would run for several months . GL.
1. Bloomberg article reported a couple of days ago Chancellor confirmed no additional windfall taxes on oil companies in next Spring Budget , in reply to Labour Q . Increasing it more would discourage investment , Think Hunt has got the message. Shame he can’t amend it to be fairer. Ie it only applies if oil is above a certain price and windfall tax only applies to profits made above that level.
2. Bloomberg headline today indicating a $7m bet on Brent topping $100 by late May
We need to do like others.. increase the dividend pot from $200m to $225m or even $250m with a special dividend to stop the larger investors trimming their holdings.. and secondly show how much cash we can commit to buybacks in 2023.. albeit this might be difficult if they want a large overseas acquisition.. Too early for them to say anything. Will have to wait till 9th March full year results for extra info, but I would have thought they would have delayed it until after Wed 15 March Spring Budget. So guess AGM on 10 May is when they can reveal 2023 buy back info or special div that could strengthen the SP assuming the budget doesn't inflict anything else. Target 348p in late Q2 with Brent in $90s
The £/US exchange rate is nearing 1.25 , so $200m doesn't go as far as say 1.10. Think they need to boost the dividend pot to $250m and as others have said confirm $400m plus buy back for 2023 . Nothing said as yet so the SP is in limbo..
Currently 6% yield.. so that can be improved with higher oil prices.
My Cousin works in the oil industry in the US, and Linda is on the board of one of the companies he used to work for. My guess is Linda looks at how well the US oilers are doing and thinks investing more cash and also her expertise into the UK might be a waste of resources. This is also confirmed by what she has said recently.. We could see something dramatic. Personally I'd like to see HBR swallowed up by someone else. 25% premium on today's price.
Guess there's a small chance the March 2023 budget might tweak the rules.: eg: minimum floor price ..
Back to 170p/therm. Good recovery from lows of 130p/thm last week , well above the average realised last year , even though we have some hedged lower down . Could this explain the weak Sp last week given HBR is 50% gas ?
Assuming Brent averages nearer $90 this year, rather than $80.. then you could do something like this:
1. $800m to take it to net debt zero
2. $200m dividends ( increasing to $250m)
3. $200m buybacks ( increasing to $400M)
Nobody starts or continues a business with 75% tax , so best return money back to shareholders. They can definitely carry some debt into 2024 if they have a larger buyback (say $500m) this year.. and then repeat the same into 2024.
Peel Hunt cuts Harbour Energy to 'hold' - price target 325 pence
Next line down after Barclays so 325p looks like the base. If Oil prices trend higher over 2023 then we are looking at significant extra revenue. I think China will reopen quickly and oil prices will be $5 higher at the end of Q1. Collect the dividends and deleverage and hope Pell Hunt increase the share price target.
At the end of the day $200m dividend pot translates into 20p annual dividend , so about 6%.. Increase the dividend pot to $250m and I'm sure Pell Hunt will increase the price target towards £4.00