Member Info for hitman1a

Nice article , target price improvement very dependent on interest rate cuts of 175bp over say 18mths. , Think I can wait and collect the dividends along the way .

5 day chart , half a cup .

At 225.2 today and 227.56 yesterday. Average 233.7

21.33 forward div, so 9.12% yield. Think on a good day it will reduce to 8.75% (244p)

Current sentiment feels like it's going towards 10% , like MNG and Phoenix.

Guess we need a major overseas acquisition and a huge extra buyback afterwards from the cashflow, and I mean massive, like £100m.

I sort of agree with you and have also read your previous comments , Just that a daily buyer of 2m shares per day over say 44 days or less should collect the low hanging fruit .

2m shares buy back at say £2.27

Must admit i still think the buy back will push the share price back up to £2.50 eventually .

When does the buyback start ?

Bought in today using my recent Aviva dividend . Nice yield and perhaps 10p upside over next few days .

The FID on Bressay gas should be completed by year end.

No further discussion on extra buy backs or dividends, what we have now is all there is ,

The Board are mainly focused on the next acquisition to boost production from 40k/ day to say imv around 70k/ day , Perhaps a portfolio of assets rather than one large one , but most likely overseas ,

And also doing the deal without another rights issues , so probably with a large extra loan .

Once completed, the market cap will adjust accordingly to say 25p plus imv , and they expected to do something between 6 and 18 mths time .

Excellent recovery in share price by end of day . Look forward to the next dividend and perhaps at least one interest rate cut before it . Aiming for 4% by end of 2025, and say £5.50 share price . That’s 61p gain from today and 3 more dividends (say 12p, 24p,13p): Total gain say 110p per share over 18mths

As expected, the Dividend money arrives when the SP has fully recovered. I still expect this to be around the £5 level at year end, so thinking of purchasing more in December 24.. which gives the opportunity to get bank interest or other opportunities for the next 6 mths. GL

Push to 480p when the ECB cuts interest rates in June.. BOE perhaps slightly later in Q4

USA can stay higher for longer in 2024 and then start cutting in 2025.

Forward div of say 36p , @7.25% still gives £4.96/share . I guess anything at 7.5% ,ie £4.80 or below will be picked up quite quickly .

Great start to the day and at least we don’t have someone like Cevian selling into the rise . Think even when it’s goes ex div , the buy back machine will go in extra heavy to bring it back up to £4.80 . Lower interest rates in 2H should keep it at this level . £5 plus doesn’t seem unreasonable .

The company has been the subject of takeover speculation, with the Italian insurer Generali reportedly looking at it.

Blanc shrugged this off as “random market chatter”. A number of UK companies have attracted takeover interest recently, including Aviva’s rival Direct Line, which rejected a £3.1bn offer from a Belgian insurer as “highly opportunistic” last week.

“If you look at most UK stocks today, you would say that they’re probably not at the valuation that they should be at”, Blanc said, pointing to Brexit, the pandemic, the turmoil around the mini-budget and other issues.

“Certainly, we would say that there’s plenty of room to go in our share price. But we are really focused on the things that are in our control, which is the brilliant performance of the business.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/07/avivas-profits-rise-as-demand-for-uk-private-health-insurance-booms?ref=biztoc.com

It's not only the increase of say 5% in the dividend cash pot , but also the reduction in shares via the buyback process, so double benefit..

Add in some interest rates cuts in the 2H, and target a yield of 7%, based on the next dividend being say 35.6p, gives a target share price of £5 plus this time next year.

We are only at the level today where we should have been after the "return of capital" , but things went the wrong way after SV Bank and interest rates climbing.

The 2025 buy back will keep it above £5.

Buy back starts tomorrow ( 8th March). Hopefully they spread it out during the day, but my impression on the last one was that they like to do their shopping in the morning.

Got my shareback and it reads well , Perhaps 35p dividend next year with interest rates declining at somepoint should see this head to £5 over 12mths, or most likely by end of this year, well done Aviva

Thought they said 22.3p

I just hope after spending so much money on all these small acquisitions, they generate enough profit to pay for the annual buybacks , let’s hope we get one.