Member Info for hitman1a

1. Bloomberg article reported a couple of days ago Chancellor confirmed no additional windfall taxes on oil companies in next Spring Budget , in reply to Labour Q . Increasing it more would discourage investment , Think Hunt has got the message. Shame he can’t amend it to be fairer. Ie it only applies if oil is above a certain price and windfall tax only applies to profits made above that level.

2. Bloomberg headline today indicating a $7m bet on Brent topping $100 by late May

I'm just here for higher oil prices by 2H , improved SP from these levels ( I suggested 348p), a couple of dividends and some fresh buybacks.. GL.

I don't think you're ready Rookie1. That's why I pulled your papers and your 4 years behind.

"Don't think.. just do "

We need to do like others.. increase the dividend pot from $200m to $225m or even $250m with a special dividend to stop the larger investors trimming their holdings.. and secondly show how much cash we can commit to buybacks in 2023.. albeit this might be difficult if they want a large overseas acquisition.. Too early for them to say anything. Will have to wait till 9th March full year results for extra info, but I would have thought they would have delayed it until after Wed 15 March Spring Budget. So guess AGM on 10 May is when they can reveal 2023 buy back info or special div that could strengthen the SP assuming the budget doesn't inflict anything else. Target 348p in late Q2 with Brent in $90s

We were 325p on Monday , so I'd like to revisit this at the close.

The £/US exchange rate is nearing 1.25 , so $200m doesn't go as far as say 1.10. Think they need to boost the dividend pot to $250m and as others have said confirm $400m plus buy back for 2023 . Nothing said as yet so the SP is in limbo..
Currently 6% yield.. so that can be improved with higher oil prices.

My Cousin works in the oil industry in the US, and Linda is on the board of one of the companies he used to work for. My guess is Linda looks at how well the US oilers are doing and thinks investing more cash and also her expertise into the UK might be a waste of resources. This is also confirmed by what she has said recently.. We could see something dramatic. Personally I'd like to see HBR swallowed up by someone else. 25% premium on today's price.

Guess there's a small chance the March 2023 budget might tweak the rules.: eg: minimum floor price ..

It’s 50% of $200m declared as first dividend , Given the exchange rate, they need to boost it up a bit , say $250m split equally over 2 dividends.

Back to 170p/therm. Good recovery from lows of 130p/thm last week , well above the average realised last year , even though we have some hedged lower down . Could this explain the weak Sp last week given HBR is 50% gas ?

There was a strong recovery in oil prices on Friday so I think 325p is achievable again next week.. Oil can push up another $5 over Q1..

Assuming Brent averages nearer $90 this year, rather than $80.. then you could do something like this:

1. $800m to take it to net debt zero
2. $200m dividends ( increasing to $250m)
3. $200m buybacks ( increasing to $400M)

Nobody starts or continues a business with 75% tax , so best return money back to shareholders. They can definitely carry some debt into 2024 if they have a larger buyback (say $500m) this year.. and then repeat the same into 2024.

Peel Hunt cuts Harbour Energy to 'hold' - price target 325 pence

Next line down after Barclays so 325p looks like the base. If Oil prices trend higher over 2023 then we are looking at significant extra revenue. I think China will reopen quickly and oil prices will be $5 higher at the end of Q1. Collect the dividends and deleverage and hope Pell Hunt increase the share price target.

At the end of the day $200m dividend pot translates into 20p annual dividend , so about 6%.. Increase the dividend pot to $250m and I'm sure Pell Hunt will increase the price target towards £4.00

At 313 and 311.7, don’t think the Company have done any buybacks this morning , but expect 320p when they do , Normal 500k shares ought to be enough

That could mean just more buybacks in 2023, but I think they can also improve the dividend pot to $250m as well .

Net debt only $800m. All seems very good .

From the Telegraph
Harbour Energy says it is reviewing its UK organisation “to align with lower future activity levels” after the tax rate on North Sea drillers was increased from 40pc to 75pc following months of soaring gas and oil prices.

The FTSE 250 company told staff of the planned job cuts on Wednesday. It has not revealed how many jobs will be lost. Industry sources believe it is in the hundreds. It employs around 1,500 in the UK.

Think you need oil in the $90s range to push this to 26p. Guess Jeff (GS) might be right.. need to wait for Summer/Autumn or whenever it happens. Just a bit cautious of not knowing the 2023 production estimated production range. Normally not as much as I want.

If he now see's Asia as the growth area.. then Bentley/Bressay look like they have been mothballed due to high taxes.

Harbour following the same ex UK route.

Yes KO, "Consultants" even better.. call it babysitting and perhaps it falls under £1k odd jobs allowance.

We know from last year.. Q2 the SP started to get better as oil rose but real SP growth is when the small / medium European investment houses get behind it .. so I think the pattern repeats itself again this year.. Jeff from GS has to be right one year.. For me , I think Harbour gets better performance this year because of the buy backs and dividends and so my portfolio is weighted more towards Harbour this year. GL

Jeff at Goldman says oil at $110 in Autumn if China and others all reopen properly.. so that's 1m bopd extra demand from China and perhaps another 2.5m bopd from worldwide Jetfuel. If this happens and we deleverage, there is upside to the SP, but Enquest need a $50m annual buy back for 5 years plus to fix the share price.. Not too bothered about dividend, unless it's 7%. The SP price will change when the information changes. Fixing the share price is now more important than drilling for oil imv.

Was thinking about a scheme where an oil company makes it's shareholders employees for the day and pays out a salary.. Even with Employer/ee NIC , and BR tax code. this would enable all the costs to be deducted from the P&L , showing no profit for the year and hence no Windfall tax.