Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Barclays cuts Aviva price target to 553 (620) pence - 'equal weight'
Half year results 10 Aug, Interim div ex div 18 Aug ..(paid 28 Sep): Would prefer 11p and leave 20p for final next May (total 31p)
Guess I'd like to also see a 5p special div in Jan 2023.. as it's a long wait for the juicy final div next May.
Would also like to see the sp back to 440p ish.
From the last results, we know from the Q&A, the amount that Aviva might invest is minimal.. I got the impression it was practically nothing. ie the odd project here and there..
The only thing I'm interested in re Solvency is the excess of 192% over 180%.. that if Aviva can't find anything to do with it.. ( and Amanda said it has to meet a very high bar).. then it will be returned to shareholders.. I prefer the extra dividend. Might have to wait a year to find out.. but given it's a profitable business, there's no point letting the excess increase each year..
The bond markets are giving say 7%/8% so it's hard to push Aviva past £4.40(7%) to £5 now until it decides what it's going to do with the excess cash above Solvency 180%.. It's at 192%. so the 12% is worth quite a bit.. I think 6p extra dividend over say 6 years might be on the cards.. which would give 31p plus 6p is 37p / 7% : Target 529p . I'm against another buyback.
Eventually we will get there.
Sorry KO, I should have said 2025. Feel better. ? .. Yes at Stratton , we always look at the facts..
We also look at HBR as a barometer. If that goes up,, it will drag Enquest with it after a few days.. There's a lot of technical ability here at Stratton that often gets over-looked.
Think the TLW/Cairn merger just highlights the weakness in the industry after a 7 year bear market.. irrespective of high oil prices.. If Enquest were to do the same, it suggests there probably wouldn't be any premium. All the small caps that survived are walking wounded in comparison to what they once were. Think I once held Tullow at £4 plus..
Might be an interesting OPEC+ meeting tomorrow which could steer oil prices back down to $100 over the next 6 mths..
And I still think Enquest will fade to 30k/day (break-even) by 2015 unless it picks up a few older fields for no equity injection.. and deploys it's expertise to obtain higher production. Ok, these techniques only really improve things for a couple of years, but if you have several of them, at least your making money for equity.. At the moment, everything goes towards debt reduction..
Think the AGM will be interesting with JS in a bit of limbo job wise.. Will he now stay..?
I always thought total costs were nearer $960m /annum once you included BP profit share.. and there was a 32% deduction to gross Malaysian production which has to be deducted from the figures Enquest provides..
No doubt 2022 production and deleveraging looks good but what are the projections for 2023, 2024 and 2025.. Perhaps an FDP might be submitted by 2025 for either Bressay or Bentley, but by 2025, production might have declined to perhaps 30k/day.. which at $100.. gets you just above break even.. Then to start either project, you'll need mega financing and another RI. Think AGM is 17 June , so I might attend and ask a few questions.. ( only have to buy 1 share).. Interesting the 2027 Bond is now below par so is better than 9% yield which will become very interesting if it falls further..
These tax payments wouldn't matter that much if Brent was trending higher into a higher production period.. so I guess Enquest will have to step up it's short payback drills even more.. hopefully a new plan will be revealed at the AGM.. and the SP will start motoring upwards.. otherwise I fear like baldness, it starts off slowly and then becomes a bigger issue.
Perhaps we will see more money reinvested tomorrow to take us to 440p, At the moment I haven’t seen that much . 460p would be nice if the big boys think a good chance a bit extra via solvency ratio excess will be released towards end of year as second interim div .,
DJ has gone negative .. from 422 to 411 is about the same as the next dividend.. eg estimated 11p.. Perhaps we are channeling in the 410p/420p range until we break out to 440p . Perhaps a second interim dividend in Dec.. of 6p.. or increased first interim dividend.. Doesn't look the II have reinvested their £3.75b back into AV, so perhaps they might start something next week..
I can only see the B shares cash in Barclays ( no div yet) .. SP seems to be dipping so has worked out a better price than the 415/416 I got yesterday via HL. Currently 411.70.. Done half at 413.3 , will wait and see if it dips more..
Still nothing from Barclays , neither capital or div.. pleased the share price is recovering today with the rest of the market, and did have 75% of my holdings with HL , all of which was reinvested yesterday.. At the end of the day, only a minor amount from Barclays yet to reinvest at somepoint.. Almost 421p and 423p is really the point at which I don't get back the same number of shares..
Not sure how much of the £3.75b will be reinvested , but it doesn't look like that much has at the moment..
Just reinvested cap and divs in AV via HL.. Had to manually transfer div cash.. ( easy to do)
£4.15/£4.16. better than 4.23) . If the Times article is correct, then next years div might be 37p rather than 31p.. given Solvency II ratio and excess over 180% being released to shareholders if the business can't find another purpose for it.
Still have the holding in Barclays to do.. ( when they get round to it). Might get it lower than £4.15.. as it wouldn't be good to have all the brokers issue the cash all at the same time.
GL.