RE: Oil below ESIM in Q1 and Q2 20254 Jun 2025 15:09
My take from the AGM was that Oilers in the North Sea have said they will be out by 2030 if they Government doesn't change it's stance on EPL. Given they said it would take 10 years to use all our credits and losses.. then perhaps half of this benefit has no value. Whatever deal Enquest does has to be large enough to use our credits and losses over a short time frame , ie by 2030. Perhaps the Government will make a change later on in the year, and that's when I see the SP improving.. first by a slight change in EPL (higher Brent price threshold and not tied to gas price) and then a deal. It could come good later on in the year..
In the meantime , Enquest have implemented Plan B and will continue to invest overseas over the next few years, so it has say 30k plus of foreign production by 2030. Enquest Producer is in warm stack, but only has $20m scrap value, other projects like Bressay and Bentley have no value at the moment imv, given current Brent prices.. but looking forward to my first dividend.