Member Info for hitman1a

£3m. , could be larger order filled today

Andurand Hedge fund lost 10% last week according to headline on Bloomberg this morning.

They bought 392,800 shares yesterday at an average of £3.073377, so spent about £1.2m

There are 37 working days left till end of Feb 2023 ( including all of this week), and I estimate $40m balance remaining to repurchase.. so at the same purchase rate.. perhaps £1.2m/day over 28 days in total..

I think they do the majority of the repurchasing at the beginning of day (80%) , and then the remainder before the US market opens. Let's see if we get an RNS today.. If we do, we should expect a similar pattern tomorrow : ie a 5p jump tomorrow am.

Good sign the SP can move up another 10p this week/ month : £3.20 target

Deleveraging $1.1b over 2023 should add £1/share so at somepoint this will pop up . £4.00 end of year sounds reasonable imv. And collect a couple of dividends along the way .

Increasing the dividend pot from $200m to $250m would give a yield nearer 8% , a quick fix to the share price , which I think would then trade nearer the £3.75 mark .

The current $100m buy back has to be completed no later than end of Feb 2023, I guess 60% has already been completed, which leaves about $40m split over the next 7 weeks , this will support the share price.

Another $300m buy back for 2023 could also be announced in March when we get the final accounts and it would be good to know which quarter they expect to be net debt zero . Deleveraging would imply the share price should rise.

Assuming oil prices start to rise in Q2 after the China holidays and COVID exit , there’s plenty of potential upside to the share price, if they focus on more shareholder returns.

Back in with 100k shares at 20.6p . limited upside due to WFT, but a rise of even 1p provides a decent percentage return. . Just about enough for a new phone . GL

The FT article I read this morning is much better. The LDI is specific to individual pension funds so you may think no problem for shareholders of Aviva, but the FT article also points out that over many years, pension funds have massive exposure to amounts invested in corporate bonds. Money graded BBB etc. so if this is affected by some bad debts as we enter a recession and higher interest rates, then it would cause a large write off in the accounts. The amount of write offs might be substantially higher than the amounts it earns from higher interest rates.

I expect the S& P 500 to fall over Q4 due to weaker earnings and that will drop the FTSE 100 by a similar amount and indeed Aviva as well. Didn't want to sell out last week but it's a very long wait until the next dividend but there's a chance I'll be able to buy back lower in December, early next year, once the US reaches peak interest rates. No doubt people will also switch out of equities to high interest savings accounts now as well.

We are only at the start of the switching process. Part of me thinks Aviva was at 7% yield, about a 6% premium over base. So as base rates rise to say 4%, then the Aviva dividend needs to pay a higher percentage to keep some people invested. If we aim for 9% or 10% and ignore the bad debt risk, the SP might fall to £3.44(9%) over Q4.

I agree, the BOE action only lasts for a couple of weeks, then long dated gilts start to rise again. And then another cash call.
This could wipe out a large chunk of spare cashflow that was steered to equity (dividends), especially if people can't afford to keep paying the monthly pension premiums and pensions linked to RPI liabilities keep rising.

"potentially starting to emerge in pension funds." very worrying.

Live to fight another day. I don't believe 2 weeks of BOE action on long dated gilts will solve this issue. If anything I expect gilts to rise even further, Sold out for now.

Buying gilts/bonds for 2 weeks is just temporary. so the mortgage market doesn't implode by Friday. All those Tory members who voted against Sunak made a mistake. The 5yr gilt was about 5% last night, fell upon announcement and is now climbing back up, so the bank's announcement hasn't made much difference. Kwasi will have to resign as I have no confidence in this Chancellor. The job should go back to Sunak. I assume this mini-budget needs approval and will not get approved.

Also disappointed with Aviva share price given FTSE seems relatively stable today. And I also thought as interest rates rise, Aviva SP would be improving with the slightly better margin. Guess the Aviva balance sheet has some issues on gilts. I have read some pension funds are getting margin calls and have to inject cash into their funds? Could explain some of the negativity on the share price.

The buy-back scheme won't start till next April, and it was subject to market conditions, so doubt it can be brought forward to support the share price today. My dividend income from HL has arrived, but it's in cash waiting for US market to open. Wait and see. Last Thursday we were stable at 440p , no issues. It's the Chancellor who has ruined UK confidence.

(Sharecast News) - RBC Capital Markets lifted its price target on Aviva to 510p from 420p on Tuesday.

"Given its strong capital generation, we expect that Aviva can balance enhanced shareholder returns and reinvestment into growth - an area that has historically been a key concern for investors," the bank said.

"Our analysis of Aviva's balance sheet indicates that not only can Aviva undertake buybacks of up to £450m per annum, it can generate growth to support a long-term dividend per share compound annual growth rate of 4% per annum."

RBC, which reiterated its 'outperform' rating on the shares, said this results in Aviva offering a sector-leading cumulative total capital return yield of 33% over 2022E-24E.

"Despite this, Aviva's dividend yield is 14% higher than its historical average," it added.
At 0940 BST, the shares were up 2.6% at 436.40p.

Good recommendation in my view: Target 460p with Truss policies working well for likes of L&G and Aviva.
Buy back can't start till next March, but juicy final dividend should also attract buyers next year. Long wait, but perhaps £5.10 is realistic in 6 mths time. GL

Excellent . exactly what we wanted to see.

It was difficult to watch with this sub $4 for quite a while , but enough in the report to deserve this re-rate and much more to follow. Well done to all holders.

Barclays cuts Aviva price target to 553 (620) pence - 'equal weight'

Half year results 10 Aug, Interim div ex div 18 Aug ..(paid 28 Sep): Would prefer 11p and leave 20p for final next May (total 31p)

Guess I'd like to also see a 5p special div in Jan 2023.. as it's a long wait for the juicy final div next May.

Would also like to see the sp back to 440p ish.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/sunak-to-meet-insurance-execs-for-talks-on-big-bang-solvency-ii-reforms-12641125

Check out ticker code INVP. Director sell with initials F T

Lol

From the last results, we know from the Q&A, the amount that Aviva might invest is minimal.. I got the impression it was practically nothing. ie the odd project here and there..

The only thing I'm interested in re Solvency is the excess of 192% over 180%.. that if Aviva can't find anything to do with it.. ( and Amanda said it has to meet a very high bar).. then it will be returned to shareholders.. I prefer the extra dividend. Might have to wait a year to find out.. but given it's a profitable business, there's no point letting the excess increase each year..

The bond markets are giving say 7%/8% so it's hard to push Aviva past £4.40(7%) to £5 now until it decides what it's going to do with the excess cash above Solvency 180%.. It's at 192%. so the 12% is worth quite a bit.. I think 6p extra dividend over say 6 years might be on the cards.. which would give 31p plus 6p is 37p / 7% : Target 529p . I'm against another buyback.

Eventually we will get there.

Hope your right.. Guess Bumi are working on plans on how to change the FPSO to accommodate it.. but I'd give them some time.

Sorry KO, I should have said 2025. Feel better. ? .. Yes at Stratton , we always look at the facts..

We also look at HBR as a barometer. If that goes up,, it will drag Enquest with it after a few days.. There's a lot of technical ability here at Stratton that often gets over-looked.

Think the TLW/Cairn merger just highlights the weakness in the industry after a 7 year bear market.. irrespective of high oil prices.. If Enquest were to do the same, it suggests there probably wouldn't be any premium. All the small caps that survived are walking wounded in comparison to what they once were. Think I once held Tullow at £4 plus..

Might be an interesting OPEC+ meeting tomorrow which could steer oil prices back down to $100 over the next 6 mths..

And I still think Enquest will fade to 30k/day (break-even) by 2015 unless it picks up a few older fields for no equity injection.. and deploys it's expertise to obtain higher production. Ok, these techniques only really improve things for a couple of years, but if you have several of them, at least your making money for equity.. At the moment, everything goes towards debt reduction..

Think the AGM will be interesting with JS in a bit of limbo job wise.. Will he now stay..?