Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
600p is correct , as per recent Morgan Stanley broker update yesterday.. bull case.. ie if your happy with 5% , then you'll buy even more as funds become available,
Other brokers are 480p/520p which is why I think this will start to trend higher next week... We might get to the 13 May at 480p and reopen on 16th May at 485p plus.. and then move higher once the dividend money gets reinvested on 19 May and B shares money gets reinvested on 31 May. That's an awful lot of money that was happy at 5% and will be delighted at (500p/31p) 6.2%. Any upside to 600p depends on the big institutions.
A new tax year and perhaps some fresh ISA funds will find there way here seeing dividends and a bit of capital gains... It goes ex-div tomorrow so I'm holding for the dividend which is a bit like "cash-back". The destination point of say £4.80 is not too far away.. so I think the SP will trend towards this before the transaction date. In a way this is best as 100% of our shares gain from the upside.. Perhaps £4.65 pre consolidation and £4.85/£.5.20 post consolidation.. I doubt we will be sideways at £4.40 until 13 May.
The B shares have a value of say £1.0169 on 16 May and are sold for same price on 17th May. can't really see a gain .. The original shares carry whatever gain/loss you have.. Well , that's the way I'm treating it until I read something else.
The current dividend yield is 5%. If the share price doesn’t go up post consolidation, the yield will be 7% , I assume the share price will move higher after the event, The current cost of living and inflation will persuade people to ditch any remaining cash isa’ and chase yield. Also the dividend money comes just after consolidation so I know I’ll be buying what I can with those funds . I doubt the price will still be giving me 7%
Clearly we should have sold last week at 4.58p and rebought today at 440p , but I wasn't expecting such a drop even if the Company had stopped buying shares last Thursday.
The 14.7p dividend is fixed, the £1 capital payout is fixed, and the most pessimistic destination point of £4.80 post consolidation seems almost certain.. So just hold and top up imv. £4.40 to £4.80 is a good gain on the 75% balance left and you get to keep the dividend as well.
What is the share price moves over £5+ in June.
We have the B share prospectus being issued on Monday 4 April. Guess they will use the average price this week as a guide point for conversion.. say £4.55 ish.. When the larger funds read the terms , we might go higher even with the ex-div date approaching.. Personally I don't think the share price will fall 14.7p on ex div day. The market should shake it off and head higher over April and May. We know we get the B shares capital return money at the end of May, so perhaps we can still get in below £5.00.... Even the dividend money might not be able to be reinvested below £5.00 either..
Quite a few Insurers are up as well, so this looks like a sector re-rate, as well as a bit of enthusiasm on Aviva. Think we have quite a bit more easy upside to climb as the tranactions take place.. Think we will still climb on ex-div date as well. GL
Congratulations on your gain.. UBS RAISES AVIVA TO 'BUY' (NEUTRAL) - PRICE TARGET 480 (460) PENCE
So perhaps 480p is a nice destination point in the short term.. 6.5% yield.. plus we keep the dividend as well of 14.7p..
Good start today.. and nice RNS confirming the company is still buying back it's own shares.. Ideally they wanted to complete by 31 March, so perhaps they have a bit more to do this week.
We know the destination point is about a 5.5% yield,...some say higher.. but at 31.5p : that's an SP of £5.72.
There is no bad time to buy...in a rising trend .. to share consolidation.. assuming it gets approved.
I believe the Board of Aviva want this share above £5.. I don't think there is any need to play this: just get in :
eg: SP £4.50 , ex div is £4.353, div 14.7p.. no loss
eg: If SP is £4.353. and company pays out £1.. number of shares is about the same as capital return payout..
So you get £1 cash and SP is £3.353 : no loss
eg; on share consolidation.. 4 x £3.353 is the same value as 3 shares at £4.47: no loss
But the dividend pot gets shares with a lot less shares: And the big funds chase yield.. At £4.47 the yield is 7%.. which is very generous.
BUY.. ..and definitely don't sell trying to play it..
The share consolidation combined with keeping the dividend pot the same moves the Company from one that pays a 5% dividend to one that pays 7.5% .. there are plenty of funds out there that will mop this up and drive up the SP.. ie a fund manager collects 7.5% and gives client 3% and keeps the rest.. Guess we have to wait for 4 April to see the B share scheme..
The £2,000 loss you described should turn into a profit situation once we get pass £4.50 .
At £4.50 , 31.5p /£4.50 is a 7% yield and will attract new buyers .. pushing the share price higher imv..
Ex div date : 7 April
Dividend Payment : 19 May
B share scheme circular: 4 April
Record date : 13 May
Cash proceeds on B shares : 31 May
We know the B share scheme numbers will be adjusted to ensure market comparability of the shares before and after the consolidation.. so at the moment , I don't think I will lose out.. The B share value is after taking off the 14.7p final dividend, so it will either be slightly less than one for one on the B shares as the £3.75b is fixed , or slightly more than 75% remaining shares after consolidation, so perhaps 76% or 77% .
But not long to wait for details.. only 4 April , I guess as the dividend and B shares cash is paid in May, that's when the main turbo boost to the share price will happen. That's an awful lot of cash that has to find a home..
GL. and hope the markets are more positive as we get to Q2 / Q3..
I started selling at 27p , but most in 26p range , then went long on Aviva , and am looking forward to my dividend and share consolidation , JS leaving is a big loss , even if things will be quiet for a couple of years , If you ever attended an AGM and met him , you’d be disappointed to hear this news .
I agree. we need the transactions to take place.. and of course what do shareholders do with the B shares cash.. Personally I will just reinvest it back into Aviva. . as I expect most shareholders to do.. which will turbo charge the share price.. nice..
Bought some more today too.