Member Info for hitman1a

Bit of a dip from £4.58p.. but :
01-Apr-22 RBC Capital Markets Outperform - 480.00

Was that a 5.3m volume trade at 451.90 at 12.12pm ?.

We have the B share prospectus being issued on Monday 4 April. Guess they will use the average price this week as a guide point for conversion.. say £4.55 ish.. When the larger funds read the terms , we might go higher even with the ex-div date approaching.. Personally I don't think the share price will fall 14.7p on ex div day. The market should shake it off and head higher over April and May. We know we get the B shares capital return money at the end of May, so perhaps we can still get in below £5.00.... Even the dividend money might not be able to be reinvested below £5.00 either..

Quite a few Insurers are up as well, so this looks like a sector re-rate, as well as a bit of enthusiasm on Aviva. Think we have quite a bit more easy upside to climb as the tranactions take place.. Think we will still climb on ex-div date as well. GL

Congratulations on your gain.. UBS RAISES AVIVA TO 'BUY' (NEUTRAL) - PRICE TARGET 480 (460) PENCE

So perhaps 480p is a nice destination point in the short term.. 6.5% yield.. plus we keep the dividend as well of 14.7p..

Good start today.. and nice RNS confirming the company is still buying back it's own shares.. Ideally they wanted to complete by 31 March, so perhaps they have a bit more to do this week.

We know the destination point is about a 5.5% yield,...some say higher.. but at 31.5p : that's an SP of £5.72.
There is no bad time to buy...in a rising trend .. to share consolidation.. assuming it gets approved.

I believe the Board of Aviva want this share above £5.. I don't think there is any need to play this: just get in :

eg: SP £4.50 , ex div is £4.353, div 14.7p.. no loss
eg: If SP is £4.353. and company pays out £1.. number of shares is about the same as capital return payout..
So you get £1 cash and SP is £3.353 : no loss
eg; on share consolidation.. 4 x £3.353 is the same value as 3 shares at £4.47: no loss

But the dividend pot gets shares with a lot less shares: And the big funds chase yield.. At £4.47 the yield is 7%.. which is very generous.

BUY.. ..and definitely don't sell trying to play it..

The share consolidation combined with keeping the dividend pot the same moves the Company from one that pays a 5% dividend to one that pays 7.5% .. there are plenty of funds out there that will mop this up and drive up the SP.. ie a fund manager collects 7.5% and gives client 3% and keeps the rest.. Guess we have to wait for 4 April to see the B share scheme..

The £2,000 loss you described should turn into a profit situation once we get pass £4.50 .
At £4.50 , 31.5p /£4.50 is a 7% yield and will attract new buyers .. pushing the share price higher imv..

Ex div date : 7 April
Dividend Payment : 19 May

B share scheme circular: 4 April
Record date : 13 May
Cash proceeds on B shares : 31 May

We know the B share scheme numbers will be adjusted to ensure market comparability of the shares before and after the consolidation.. so at the moment , I don't think I will lose out.. The B share value is after taking off the 14.7p final dividend, so it will either be slightly less than one for one on the B shares as the £3.75b is fixed , or slightly more than 75% remaining shares after consolidation, so perhaps 76% or 77% .

But not long to wait for details.. only 4 April , I guess as the dividend and B shares cash is paid in May, that's when the main turbo boost to the share price will happen. That's an awful lot of cash that has to find a home..

GL. and hope the markets are more positive as we get to Q2 / Q3..

Quiet morning , movement in line with general market . Roll forward 10 weeks and we should be moving to £5 imv

I started selling at 27p , but most in 26p range , then went long on Aviva , and am looking forward to my dividend and share consolidation , JS leaving is a big loss , even if things will be quiet for a couple of years , If you ever attended an AGM and met him , you’d be disappointed to hear this news .

Think JS has looked at the 2023 production estimates and jumped ship. My estimate is 4x the 2023 hedged amount of 3.5m

Good volume today and some big buys..

Nice .

Good start today, in-line with rest of market. should continue motoring upwards as we get nearer to transaction dates

I agree. we need the transactions to take place.. and of course what do shareholders do with the B shares cash.. Personally I will just reinvest it back into Aviva. . as I expect most shareholders to do.. which will turbo charge the share price.. nice..

Bought some more today too.

You’ll have to wait until 4 April to see the exact share consolidation ratio, but let’s assume it stays the same. So I expect the share price to increase to say £4.50 on consolidation date , So the 15000 shares would we worth £67500 plus £20000 B shares cash , give £87500. At £4.22, it’s currently with £84400, so a £3,100 gain. I actually expect the share price to climb to nearer £5 as people chase the dividend yield , … the dividend pot is shared between much fewer shares .

Deutsche .. today.. probably done the same maths as us based on new dividend yield..

My view is the yield will always be slightly less than L&G.(6.7%) so 31.8p/ say 6.1% is 520p

Activists want better returns.. seems like a win win for everyone..

Still can't believe this is so low.. given what is coming.. I'm adding when I can as it could be nearer £4.50 on ex div day given better macro events.. and the better yield should take this to £5.. £6 would be better but perhaps £5.30 as per the brokers suggest is feasible.

Yes, fewer shares but 2022 dividend pot is shared between less shares. Yield will be much higher than now.. say 8% rather than 5.3% today.. so shares will go higher.. 8% is like a Guaranteed Annuity Rate from an old style NU pension which will be bought up.. £5 plus target. imv.

Looks like it's motoring today.. 5p increase in a flash..

I've added more today. We have the share buy backs supporting the share price until 31 March.. I'm not sure how much left they have to do.. but it feels good and we have the dividend due soon too.

Secondly we know the dividend pot for 2023 is shared with fewer shares once the consolidation is done, which enables them to give 33p/share (2023). So if your happy with 5.4%, then you'll probably get the B shares payout money and reinvest into the ords.. as the new yield would be much higher than today which should push the share price higher as well.

We should start to motor on in Q2 once all the transactions are completed..

EU says they want to be independent of Russian energy by 2027, Think Brent will continue to fade .

Think this will be up tomorrow, target 418p, about the same increase as next dividend .