Member Info for hitman1a

I was just at the bank.. van turned up with $50m .. driver said "count that" to the cashier... " there will be more of the same next month"..

Morning TTb , Broom and Heather topsides are scheduled for removal in 2024 , so total 2022 and 2023 capex and decom will be at the lower end of estimates imv . Apparently it’s a 3 yr window cycle from start to finish , our decom liabilities % are higher on these 2 assets when compared to Thistle. I’m expecting Kraken Western front drilling in 2024, so 2024 could be the start of a higher capex/decom period, but with no debt interest, it’s all very affordable.,

2021 cash capex and abandonment was estimated at $120m . Even with Thistle 6.1% Decom costs, and £5m Malaysia , it's hard to see even with low cost Magnus drills getting to $250m or more total costs for 2022. Think it will be a tight budget year. General capex was always $50m on a normal year without drilling. FCF should be higher than the market expects even with the leasing costs. JS always indicated the Decom costs/work would be spread over several years, so it will be interesting to see how the costs for Broom and Heather will be accounted for. If they can limit cash capex and Decom to say $175m for 2022, then the market should give us the thumbs up with say average 53k production and Brent prices as they are. Let the analysts work out the FCF and net debt reduction for 2022.

Yeah, from your estimate 2022 FCF $474m ,

I see average 2022 production at say 53k .. 2k extra @ $80 : $68m
Opex perhaps nearer $350m, saving : $57m
Capex nearer $130m but could be much lower , saving $20m
Interest nearer $90m, saving $10m
Decom nearer $100m, saving $50m

FCF now $679m for 2022.. Decom and Capex could be lower.. improving the FCF to over $700m

$ billion upside to equity once you also look at the deferred tax adjustment , 2H 2021 profits, 2022 FCF ... and I'm not even including FCF 2023 and onwards.

Guess we will know next week.. ( perhaps Thursday 3 Feb ) . Think we would like to end 2022 still producing 50k bopd with net debt $500m. We would have been near 60k bopd at the start of 2022 if the riser had been attached in Malaysia.. Maybe we will see some aggressive drilling plans on Magnus next week, still low cost but more of them.. I already found out last night a contract has been issued in Malaysia to do workovers over 6mths starting in March.. so guessing riser will be attached by late Feb..

The Hydraulic Workover Unit (HWU) is a versatile, cost saving and safe tool to perform sand cleanouts, change-out completions and to repair casing leaks.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/01/27/uzma-unit-bags-enquest-job-worth-rm30mil

https://www.enquest.com/investors/corporate-governance/financial-calendar

Brent back to $86.25..
SP back to 20p tomorrow.

Buy the dip

US orders it's diplomats families to leave Ukraine.

The Magnus issue related to a re-installed gearbox that needed replacement.. Guessing it was fixed as per the TU indicated towards the end of November.. I accept it was what Enq IR believed to be correct at the time.

The doubt arises because we were told Malaysia would be fixed in Q4 2021 and then at the last minute told it would be Q2 2022. So proof that even Enq IR are a bit out of the loop until the very last minute.

I agree the market needs updating.. but given money is now flowing out of Bitcoin and Tech.. some of it might now flow into the best oil stocks in a rising oil price environment,.. We need these larger caps to rise even more to drag the minnows like Enquest up as well. The idea that a leveraged oiler like Enquest should rise even more in a high oil price environment seems to make sense but in reality fails as investors look at its past record..

The next TU should be ok in terms of production.. with a focus on large debt reduction, health and safety.. easy drilling opportunities... A separate RNS on the same day re bond refinance might also be on the cards.

I still think Google needs to see some decent numbers before any real re-rate.. so March 21 and Sep 21 are key points in the calendar, but we should keep priming the market with good TU info on Enquest during the year as Brent rises..

Guessing there is a very large to fill at 20.50p

If you mean AB has said in the past that Magnus is now our best asset and it isn't fixed.. then perhaps we just continue fixing it. We will always need to spend money on the topside to allow for long life extension with new wells in the future.. Parts do wear out just like my 14yr old boiler.. Lucky my neighbour's plumber fixed mine this morning for £50..

I've reviewed some people on Linkedin.. many people on there work for Enquest. all appear to be competent with lots of experience.. one chap detailed his work on Magnus before he was promoted.. looking at his CV experience timeline, there were problems with Magnus in 2020 as well..

Let's see .. they recognised in 2021 that many Magnus parts needed changing.. a bit like in Dubai when there's an upgrade available , it's always worth doing.. We have money now , so lots of things will get done.

Let's pray it's not a "oops" update..

You just know they are going to mention something, but then again we don't have any old assets left.. this time could be different..

Think 3rd Feb , being a Thursday looks the best bet for the Ops update.. ( last year was Thursday 4th Feb)

Which then gives us a good 6 week run to the 2021 Accounts in late March and 25p target.

Netflix down 20% in pre-market.. as per Bloomberg..

I think we doing ok as other oilers are down too on very little volume. Deleveraging is a slow process, but at least it's happening.

All the more reason to invest in the North Sea for independent energy resources.

Russia looks like it will make a move , Putin knows he can take it .

The Enquest Factsheet on the website shows data as of 31/12/20 for 3 prior years.. grim reading when you look at the erosion of equity... 2021 FCF numbers won't be great either .. enough to wear out all investors.. I'm still clinging onto the 2021 earnings, capital raise and deferred tax adjustment to make the equity position at 31 Dec 2021 look more attractive.

But 2022 and 2023 FCF should be fantastic for equity, assuming Google sees the proof. We are only 19 days into this year , so the cashflow earned so far won't budge the share price much further yet given we have some 2022 hedges capped at $76.

At the moment I believe Goldman are right about oil prices trending to $100 in Q3 and Q4.. and I've already indicated 39p for end of year.. Everything is set in place. The Feb update needs to WOW investors with potential numbers for 2022.. ie FCF with various Brent prices..

I thought they said Magnus was fixed , but haven’t told us the new production numbers .

SP Consolidation.. even with Brent now $88.56

Sideways travel until the market gets more/ better information..

Brent $88.50 Goldman have to be right some of the time..

$90 soon.