Member Info for hitman1a

Brent $78.47. Strong chance 20p plus by end of month.

25p by March or earlier.

A few share repurchases , wish we could do that.

Lon:CNE , Google is calling it Capricorn Energy , rather than Cairn ?

Brent now $75.56 ; always a good chance with Omicron in the news being considered to be mild, we could see Brent improve $10 to $85 again over next 30 days. So a boost in SP of also 10p timed with a decent late Jan update for the 2022 year..

We have seen this boost happen many times. sometime starts in late Dec, sometimes late Jan.. but if conditions are right, it will happen.. Volume is very low.. so not expecting anything until after Xmas. Just don't know when the whales will boost the Brent positions.. another week or 2 of mild Omicron headlines ought to be enough.

Got £1k at 18.187 5,438 shares

I tried for 5mins to buy when the market opened.. wouldn't let me buy at 17p
Only just now it offered 18.21p

Spread was 17p/22p pre open, so 17p was expected..

Try for 19p given Brent $74, even if volume is low.

Must admit I now know too many people who have caught Covid, thankfully they all seem to get better after 5 days.

Merger with Lundin.

It needs to be $100m annually.. any less like $50m or $25m and the yield would be too low.. the SP would collapse. We pay about this much in annual interest, so once the debt is gone.. we can pay the same out to shareholders.

At 8% on $100m ,that's an SP of about 50p. Only problem is I think they won't want to pay $100m. HBR is only paying $200m annually, but is a much larger production company,.. only plus is the FCF is predicted to be the same.. $500m/$600m per annum.

Barclays have predicted Enquest net assets of $1.2b at end of 2023, add deferred tax and and extra $10 /barrel over 2022 and 2023 (Barclays used $60), we could be near $1.9b net equity assets.. 8% is $152m.. so let's see what Enquest actually achieve for shareholders.. Barclays in July 2021 predicted a price target of 39p in 12mths time (July 2022).. I still believe this is possible 6 mths further down the line in Dec 2022.

GL. Just need to prove it Google.

Well done Modestus..
Brent is still $71.50 ish.. Enquest can just keep quiet and bank the cash.

Chilting has some concerns on production numbers.. so perhaps that is playing a bigger part than we would like to admit.

I had a dream last night.
I saw a one and a half line letter indicating HBR would be transferred all of the assets of Enquest. It wasn't an RNS. It was like a memo from one consultant to another. The share price hit 36p in the morning once the info leaked although it fell back to 26p by lunchtime.

Perhaps HBR will want to swallow up Enquest for the future cash flow and tax losses.

I had a little victory on SOU and ploughed the £39 profits into Enquest.

We are below our 19p placing price.. so we are definitely in the take a free sample/ multi pack larger than life cashew nut bargain zone of Costco.

Don't top up over the next 2 weeks , spend your money on presents.
GL.

Relax.. save your energy for next year..

$500m FCF for 2022 based on Brent $60 with production at 54.8k /day : which Barclays predicted in July 2021.
JP Morgan overweight too.

Cash is King.

Lewis was robbed..

Very low volume today.. which normally continues over next 2 festive weeks
Enquest need to deliver decent sets of half-yearly accounts that show "equity" improving..

Hi Pelle

I think the existing bonds will run to maturity.. Oct 2023, but the new Bond (effective Oct 2023 +1 day) of $Xm can be arranged 12mths to 18mths beforehand. The signing of which then allows our secured debt facility to extend into 2024 onwards to finance another project.. JS will decide .

From the 11 June 2021 RNS "new senior secured borrowing base debt facility (the 'new facility') of approximately $600 million and an additional amount of $150 million for letters of credit for up to seven years".. from date of signing of new Bond.

For example, as of Oct 2023 ,Enquest could end up with a new 5yr term $500m bond and $750m overdraft facility (unused) and cash in the bank of $310m based on $50m net debt reduction from 1 Jan 2022 of $1,290m. Net debt Oct 2023: $190m.

Feels like HBR is dragging us down (now £3.52), I expect it to test £3.25.. and achieve same yield as BP.

We ought to be able to spend $50m..on initial dividend.. which at same yield as above and $/£ 1.32 conversion.. gives a 43.6p share price target. Not too far away from Barclays 39p target.. Can we afford it in early 2023? yes.. but perhaps we can only pay it after the existing Bonds have been cleared in Oct 2023.

Do you mean the Doug Heffernan types?

Which aisle ?

1. Once you get to initial dividend stage.. and the distribution is too low.. the SP is expected to decline to match market yields... eg HBR.. not saying the next dividends wont be higher given the capex they spend.. but we want to avoid the same happening to us.. At the end of the day, you need to spend a lot to maintain 200k production/per day.

2. JP Morgan seem to pop up when they are planning something with Enquest imv.. so perhaps a fresh bond is being prepared and they want the SP higher by March 2022. That's what I would do.. present a new bond when the 31 Dec 2021 accounts are presented in March 2022.. I expect the SP to be 25p anyway by then...

3. Still think 20p by end of month is attainable.

4. Deferred Tax adjustments and usable losses.. Monthly FCF to deleverage.. 39p by end of 2022 is still my target too.

It's all talk really until Google see's it in writing.. let's face it. we still have major hurdle early next year with the 2022 production forecast. Will the market like it.. ? and of course Brent stability at $75 plus.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/371268/magnus-flaring-enquest/

Got mentioned on the HBR board.... but all sorted now..