Member Info for hitman1a

I'm slightly concerned about the low $70s pricing which could be with us until next summer.. Tarmak has some excellent excel analysis but has used $85 as an estimate for Brent in 2022. Perhaps we can trend again to $80 next summer but there are some like Deutsche that last night were looking at $60 next summer. Others like JPM looking at much higher in 2H 2022 , but admitting an OPEC+ pause in Q1 next year will be required.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/oil-will-hit-125-a-barrel-in-2022-150-in-2023-jpmorgan

Brent $80 plus is what Enquest needs to boost the SP.. but low $70s isn't enough to attract much attention, even though it generates good cashflow..

26-Nov-2021.. , they might have added even more over the last 2 days.

moving from 3% to 4% is a good move.. part of me thinks it brings down their average.

I thought you had contacts in the industry Ammu.

1. Can you confirm Kraken is producing on both trains.
2. Can you confirm Magnus is back to normal production from this morning.

Thanks in advance. 20p by end of year.. but that looks conservative..

Guess we have reached the bottom ..

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-ceo-says-current-vaccine-likely-protect-against-severe-covid-omicron-2021-11-30/

Seems like getting everyone to take the booster is the best policy... albeit there are some who still haven't had a single shot.

Albert Bourla, chief executive of rival vaccine maker Pfizer/BioNTech said he was "very confident" the jab works against all known mutations of coronavirus, including Omicron.

But will still make a new one within 95 days..

£1k. 5577 shares at 17.628p.. this helps the 19p batch bought on 24th Nov.. average 18.31p. Added to the 18.09 2K batch gives an overall average of 18.2p . which should be in profit by Friday.. Still think 20p by end of December 2021. ( 25p April 2022).

Google is waiting.. Guess in the back of my mind I knew not to hold an oil stock going into Winter, but the GE acquisition really helps the cashflow and monthly deleveraging. Thinking OPEC+ will not bring anymore oil onto market in Q1 2022. Yep , 3 mths,

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/morgan-stanley-cuts-q1-2022-brent-oil-forecast-omicron-risks-2021-11-29/

eta 30 Nov 2021 9.30am Aberdeen

Google is waiting patiently .... will the equity value on the balance sheet rise?..

20p by end of Dec 2021 is what I expect.. and somehow 39p by end of 2022/Q1 2023 (64.5% of expected equity value on balance sheet). 20p is also roughly what I expect 64.5% of the equity to be valued at on the balance sheet on 31 Dec 2021.

Petronordic expected at Scapa Flow on Dec 3. It left Rotterdam at 4.11am this morning and is heading to Aberdeen.. eta 30 Dec 2021 9.30am

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/after-todays-crazy-meltdown-what-oils-fair-value-goldman-has-answer

Natural gas was more expensive today, so I'd expect some more suppliers like Bulb to go to the wall. Enquest will be getting a bit more revenue too.

SA Medical say the cases they saw are in younger people and symptoms are mild. Medical companies say they would need 6 weeks to make a new vaccine if needed and 100 days to start deliveries .

Would prefer Opec + to hold any further rises for 3 months to restore confidence.

Hi L7.. good points

I found this earlier in year: the movement is positive $343.3m

11. Financial effects of the Capital Raising and the Acquisition
On a pro forma basis and assuming that the Transaction and an RBL drawdown of $600 million had taken
place on 31 December 2020, the EnQuest Group would have had net assets of $278.7 million, compared with
net liabilities of $64.6 million reported as of 31 December 2020. Please refer to Part 9 (“Unaudited Pro
Forma Financial Information”) which contains an unaudited pro forma statement of assets and liabilities,
prepared to illustrate the effect of the Transaction and an RBL drawdown of $600 million on the assets and
liabilities of the EnQuest Group as if each had taken place on 31 December 2020.

RE EP disposal value.. I assume it has been written off to zero but costs us say $100k/mth to keep it at the dock.. Think they did give the figure once .. might be slightly more.?

forgot the £/$ ..but expected to be
31p / 31 Dec 2021
61p / 31 Dec 2022

Balance sheet at 31.12.20: -64.6m
Restatement on D Tax Magnus Add $155m
Add 2021 profits/placing Add $365m
Add Deferred Tax Adj GE Add $347m
Balance Sheet at 31.12.21 $802m (42p)
Add 2021 Profits Add $600m
Add EP disposal value Add $150m
Balance Sheet 31 Dec 2022 $1552m ($1.5b) (82p)
Number of Shares 1886m

A number of estimates.

31/12/20: (64.6m)
restatement on Magnus:

Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be suspended from 12pm today until 4am on Sunday. From Sunday onwards, new arrivals in the UK will be required to quarantine in hotels.

My first impression was flights would be cancelled for a long tine, but the above from Sky news indicates is just temporary.

Think Goldman are bullish on oil, apart from if the Iranian issue changes.. but the new variant does affect demand.. so think OPEC+ should keep production as it is for say 3 mths and then re-assess. Topped up £2k at 18.09p which might be the high of the day.. Still expected 20p by end of December.. and then the balance sheet to start repairing itself very quickly thereafter.. South Africa doesn't have a high number of daily cases.. only a few thousand /day.. but what resources and policies do they have to contain the new virus.. If it's similar to what China would do, then they have a good chance of containing it..

European funds can only find 3 oil companies that meet Paris climate criteria of 1.5% . So I'm not expecting any RNS from the main stream funds.

We still have say positive $343m deferred tax adjustment to make post GE , plus FCF 2022 : say $600m, plus say EP disposal say $100m.. potentially $1b in wealth to create over the next 12 mths and add to the balance sheet from 30 June 2021, plus 2H 2021 profits..

It's easy to forget the big stuff.

Seen one Fpso listed for sale with a broker guide of $20m and another sold by Bumi for $40m. Also seen Orcadian Energy receive interest from several providers for an FPSO.. ..Seen another sell for $57m, with new owner spending another $240m. Guess EP starts with a price tag of $50m.. plus whatever mod cons and extras are on board. A charter to Orcadian or similar might give us a better return .