Member Info for hitman1a

EP cost £757m and had a shelf life of 15yrs, but only had 5yrs of low usage.

Not sure what sort of offers we received, but given the price of a new one might still be $1b, I'd be inclined to wait until someone really wants one and doesn't want to wait 3 yrs for a new one nor want to pay interest on the loan to finance it.

$50m, $100m, but $250m seems about right. Pretty sure we received some $25m bids as well.

15:42 . 1 trade ..so another RNS from AB tomorrow. ?

GL

I've misread that RNS, it's not £1/2m , it's 434k shares (about 81k) .. looks like back of the sofa stash..

He's has some catching up to do.

I've just done another £500 and further £600..

That means AB has to do another £600k to keep up with me.

Fair enough.. I will buy another £500 as well.

Amrita Sen says Brent $85 is expected as an average going forward due to underinvestment.. Also the US SPR is a release of sour crude which isn't wanted by refiners.. they prefer sweet crude.. so 2022 supply looks tight and benchmark prices for WTi and Brent are likely to be high.. OPEC+ will act as a thermostat.. etc. So say 54k at $80 for 2022 gives us a good deal of deleveraging, but we really need to start drilling more short payback Magnus wells in 2022 and 2023 and the Kraken western front in 2024.

Bought £1k.. if AB can spend £1m.. I can do a grand.

GL.

In the US, gasoline in California is say $5/gallon and the average elsewhere is say $4/gallon.. so I can understand releasing some SPR and sending it to the West Coast to help them out.. Use the SPR in local domestic areas to alleviate shortages just as China and Japan are intending.. Otherwise OPEC+ are doing a good job at keeping prices fair for both producers and consumers..

That just leaves the Enquest SP to sort out over time.. deferred tax adjustment to make the balance sheet at 31 Dec 21 look prettier and then two 6mth doses of deleveraging in 2022 so the 2022 accounts look even better when presented in 2023.

Do we have the interest and patience ?.... Will the SP still be 19p or 39p.. ?

Apologies, that’s a quick bounce back to 22.5p. , just rechecked the graph I saw in my dream . GL

I’m expecting 25p towards end of March 2022 based on debt reduction, but I had a dream last night which showed the share price graph on google indicating a bounce back to 24p pretty soon , perhaps by this Friday , GL

How many times have we been to this meeting over the years..

Fish and chips and a free cup of tea at Ikea. over £5.. why aren't people complaining this !

I thought OPEC+ operated to provide a fair price to both producers and consumers..

Not sure what Biden thinks is a fair price is for oil.. A top of the range Nissan Micra costs £21k.. why aren't people complaining about this..

I just read it takes 13 days from when the President speaks for oil to hit the market.. As this release will be spread over several months.. the net increase helps a little.. but I expect global demand for jet fuel to increase substantially over the same period.

Perhaps Brent can stay just above $80 for a couple of years. Just heard brown vinyl tape has gone up in price .. Was paying 84p ex vat per roll. now 1.40ex vat .. Inflation is here to stay and my supplier was saying we were lucky to get the supply.

I agree KO, but we had a shockingly bad production month.. missed our net debt reduction target and profitability.. that said the production just gets produced at a later date.. It's not like a wholesaler who buys 24 doz shampoo on low margin and has all their profit tied up in the last 4 doz.. if any get damaged/lost it hits the bottom line..

20p by Jan 1st.. then 25p by 1 April. based on Q1 2021 actual $150m in net debt reduction and expectation of repeat in Q2. Real deleveraging reducing the going concern risk which always plays a part in stock market valuations.. These are are best assets and they had issues like our older assets.. which is a bit of a turn off for investors.

Market cap always seems to return to £350m but I thought with GE we would settle just above £525m.. Brent is still $79 so 30p in Mid 2022 seems like a reasonable target for me.

Got a reply from Enq IR today on Magnus.
"expectations on Magnus are that production is expected to have returned to normal levels by the end of November. This includes the contribution from the three wells that have been brought back into service"

They can't give individual well or asset data so we will have to rely on OGA data in time.. "Normal levels" would I guess be the 2021 average of 12,640 bopd which Enquest regard as "production below expectations" plus perhaps 750 extra /well x 3.. so perhaps 14,890 bopd.. perhaps even more if we use the 2020 average of 17,570.

This time next week it should all be back and fixed.. call it 16k.. we could be at 58k total on 1 Dec.. and a bit more from Malaysia by Q2 next year.. Brent is $79.72. so just wait for word to reach Ammu and we should see 20p very soon.

GL.. 3 Magpies this morning.. but one is clearly a bully.

I do worry what will happen next year as people roll off their 1 yr energy contracts. Gut instinct is to do some research on the price cap and stay with existing supplier.. as I checked on a comparison supermarket website and moving seems the worst option. Cost would 50% to 100% higher.. That's assuming my supplier is still in business.

OPEC + might consider changing plan if US and others release SPR , What a relief , should see $80 plus again as soon as the airlines get to full speed over the next few weeks ,

We have around 800 employees and contractors.. until Magnus is fixed and they see some evidence of better Magnus production and word starts to spread amongst themselves and people in the industry, the SP looks like it will travel sideways.. Over the last month practically all them have worked on troubled assets. We had issues for 30 days plus.. word even got to Ammu.

I'm not expecting GE to produce anymore . I haven't seen anything to indicate it would.

Once we get confirmation the gearbox compressor has been fixed at Magnus and both compressors are working, we should see the benefit of the 3 wells that have been brought back into service. Guess we can expect 20p once this happens in early Dec 2021 and then bank $50m each month.

The SP should respond positively with a 5p rise every quarter in 2022 to reach Barclays 39p target by end of 2022.

We had poor production in Oct/Nov and now all I see are negative articles for what was a temporary dip.

Thought I heard on the radio it was Australia.. so a bit of relief it's Austria.. Basically behind with vaccinations..

"The lockdown would last for a maximum of 20 days, Schallenberg said.
He also announced that Covid vaccination would become mandatory in Austria from Feb. 1.
On Thursday, Austria recorded 15,145 new cases of Covid-19, setting a new record high for daily positive tests.
Around 65% of Austria's population has been fully vaccinated against the virus, which Schallenberg has previously described as "shamefully low." The country has the second-lowest vaccination rate in western Europe after Liechtenstein.