Member Info for hitman1a

It has to be valued at the same yield as say BP.. so if we say $200m is 4.6% yield. then HBR SP should be near £3.25

Enquest ? not so sure they will have anything outstanding to say production wise in early Feb 21, but most of us are now here to see the deleveraging take place and SP gain momentum for 24mths..

I got a reply from Enq IR.. same as what others probably got .. they won't talk about individual wells .. they only issue revised guidance if production materially different to what they expect.. so wait for next operation update in late Jan/early Feb. I assume Magnus is now repaired.. working.. and production same or slightly above average production for 1H 2021.

All oil stocks seem to be down this morning despite Brent being $75.56. Low volume day , more sells than buys.

HBR FCF same as Enquest for next year.. (but HBR spend $1.3b on capex too).. Think the HBR dividend yield of 4% isn't high enough.. BP a better bet. So HBR is a sell until the yield gets attractive.

When Enquest issue a dividend.. perhaps post Oct 2023.. if the yield is the same on a market cap of £735m. (39p/share), a 4% yield would cost just £29.4m ($40m) . I think that's affordable but disappointing for shareholders.. so 8% would be fairer to compensate for previous requests for money.. Clearly the capital gain from 19p to 39p is also a nice carrot too.

At least we reviewed the EV number. Debt reduction over 2022 should see the SP rise 5p every Qtr....plus sector rerate.

Enq stuck on ner ner , ner ner, 19p

20p by end of month.

now 18.80p , think he just bought back in.

Sungam
GMO

What you saying Ammu.. another gearbox failure .. 5 place grid penalty..?

Tell more

How do you know Ammu.. did you ask IR? It was a simple gearbox change. I would think Storm Barra would be causing more issues for everyone in the NS.

The SP is closer to 19p than 18p.

If the gearbox wasn't fixed , the SP would still be going down.

The last RNS said it would be operational with the benefit of the new wells and modifications by end of Nov.. add a week extra just in case.. but Bob can fix anything.. assume it's done.

Fair enough.. I have us at 58k today and tapering off 10k , so midpoint 53k for 2022

I could round up to 54k if we have a good innings.

Great News on Brent and Omicron.. Whales are coming back to support Brent.. 1H 2022 $75 average is fine, but it's likely now to be higher if Omicron wipes out Delta and we return closer to normal in Spring.

Still 3 weeks left to close the year.. so always a chance we will see another RNS from Enquest to revise down yearly production.. We would be like a one man band gold miner taking a couple of weeks off over Xmas ..

Found out today Zopa are closing down their P2P business today. It's been a good little earner over the years. Apparently trust has broken down with certain sectors .. ie : my word is my bond no longer means what it once used to be..

Google is waiting.. will be Feb 2022 operations update give us the boost we need? .. probably not. There's a danger the estimate for 2022 production will be lower than we want.. think Barclays printed 54k for 2022, but maybe our midpoint maybe nearer 50k.. even if we fix Malaysia and drill a couple of new wells at Magnus..

Magnus is supposed to be our best asset in terms of future new production.. yet where's all the data ? to prove it's worthwhile drilling more each year..?

I went to planning meeting last night.. it's best to evaluate our investment like a Councilor would examining a proposed new development..

More or less sideways to end of month.. 20p target.

Your right. Google needs to see a healthy "equity number" in the balance sheet.. It's not necessarily debt anymore but when will we see a decent balance sheet. ? The current process is taking place in very small steps.

Still don't know if Magnus is performing better, but I guess they need a few months of new data to give us an average.
18p is below the placing price of 19p.. not good for morale.. but I'm relaxed with Brent near $72 and deleveraging in reasonable chunky monthly amounts..

HI Pelle ,from your $700m FCF for 2022, what’s your net debt reduction for the year ? . assume we start with $1290m on 1 Jan 2022

Hi Pelle
what's your FCF for 2022 with Brent $75 for 1H 2022 and $80 for 2H.?

rather than the $85 used by Tarmak.

Seems like a low volume day.. my 18.20p top up average is expected to be in profit by eod.. Brent back to $72..

Just enough green to pay for my meal at Dishoom tonight...18.50p ought to be enough.

We all know Goldman advise SA .. GS seems to think oil is oversold and demand is higher than the price would infer.. so the 400k increment is probably modelled on Goldman excel analysis. Russia probably wouldn't cut anyway..

Glad we got the meeting out of the way.. Really needed Russia and SA to reduce 1m each to balance the market in Q1 2022. Guess they are happy with the reduction in revenue.. Maybe it's reverse phycology..

On the plus side, I'm not sure we will see much of the extra 400k in Jan 21 get to market.

Jefferies also agree with JPM.. B of A was also saying the same things a couple of weeks ago ($120) mid 2022 if fully reopened

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Jefferies-Fully-Reopened-World-Could-See-150-Oil.html