Member Info for hitman1a

I don't think oil prices at Brent $110 are too expensive.. but do on the petrol forecourt where I paid £1.65/litre yesterday for diesel and have seen articles quoting near £2/litre today. I haven't read or seen any prices cut on larger engine petrol cars yet either .. but I find wholesale gas prices too expensive .. Was paying £150/mth to Scottish Power... looked online today and was offered their best deal on a 1 yr fix at £780/mth.. Thought I'd pass and go on the variable 6mth capped rate and take my chance wholesale gas prices will be lower in Q3/Q4. Hopefully weather will be milder from April and I can switch the heating off for 6 mths.. I can use the torch on my mobile to see where I'm going in the evening..

Great recovery in SP today.. but Brent much lower after the close which I expected . Articles saying risk of supply shock much less and I'm not sure Asia will buy this tonight.

I bought some Aviva today.. Dow J doing well.. and Momentum feels good for index tracker funds in short term.

Hi KO. I said 25p target intact for Q1 2022. Clearly Barclays will wait for accounts and update and provide new targets for Q2 onwards.

As we saw last October with GE , we were at 27p and fell to 18p by Xmas.. I want to avoid some of that movement if Brent falls away.. I've seen it happen so many times.. If a rise of $5 only sees the sp move up 1p.. then.. like others who have been buying since 2015.. it's best to trim and reset those shares lower .. 2 mths of deleveraging isn't going to support the SP in the short term if Brent trends down $5..$10.. Ignore the media.. Algos and Avanza control the share price. I accept the massive amount of deaveraging is taking place and repairing the balance sheet. 25p seem to be holding well today..

I'm out.. zero holding ..

Although Brent is $124.14.. clearly there is no shortage of oil and no European World War. Think I can ignore all the calls from Goldman and JPM for higher prices and now expect oil to fade down slowly .. as per the futures contracts indicate as well.. Tullow is a good example of reality v shareholders expectations..

Barclays 25p target seems intact for Q1 2022.

I've started to trim down.. £500m market seems fair..

Algo, Avanza, etc can always target 24p if Brent falls a bit more... and it's still a while to the accounts and update.

Poland has agreed to give all it's MIGs to USA. USA is giving a good part exchange deal..

Available free of charge to Ukraine Air Force. ... only fair Ukraine has the tools to defend itself.

BRENT printed $138 on Open, not sure what price it will be when we open, but 30p might be reasonable. BRENT now $129, Should be a good week .

Brent $125 target for Monday ?

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-price-set-to-surge-further-on-iranian-talks-delays-2778724

Bloomberg breaking news : White House considering ban on Russian oil imports

26p plus next week , Brent $117.92

We definitely don't want to reopen the old stuff.. it's a bit like buying back a car you just got rid off .

Oil is a cyclical business. a 7yr bad run is long enough, but the upturn may only last a few months.. as high prices encourage more drilling. Just seen a good interview on Bloomberg/ ( with a different Goldman chap).. Says there is certainly not any spare buffer, so if the 5m barrels /day of Russian oil that exits on ships is stopped, they see $15 rise in Brent for every month it lasts.. I think the US will feel the pressure next week to act and sanction Russian oil, just like Canada already has.. Europe can follow but the gas will probably still flow..

So over the next 2 mths.. irrespective of Iranian oil.. we could see much higher oil prices. ie $150 . But as soon as the West lifts the oil sanctions.. it will come down significantly.. Feel as if that's the sweet spot to start selling rather than the 26p range I have seen so many times... Another Bloomberg guest said today the cyclical oil business is "buy low and sell high.".

Barclays 7% down today.. Risk off.. European financials are getting hit hard.. I'll assume Putin continues his expedition and the West imposes more sanctions. ie Russian oil exports.. Perhaps that might change his course., because nothing so far has..

Bloomberg used the phrase ‘Super Backwardation’ yesterday. Even mentioned there might be rationing in Europe in the absence of Russian oil and gas , China also has a new directive to acquire all commodities , prices doesn’t matter .

Some shorts don’t close because they expect Enquest to fall at the next hurdle , But at these oil prices ? Perhaps the majority will try and close and reset above 30p , Let’s see how high they can stretch it, if they feel a bit of heat today .

"Back in at 21.05p oil is only going one way after the despicable cretin than is putin."

as per BTFATH1 message on 25th Feb

They haven't officially, .....but if you wanted oil, how would you transport it, refine it.... or even pay for it..

Putin is in for the long haul.. so oil and gas prices are going up in what was already a tight market... The market always expected these things to be sorted out quickly but on this occasion, they haven't been.

A 40 mile convoy supported by Belarus can only be defeated from behind by NATO.. and they ain't coming. If they did they could hit the Russians from behind . They are nicely set up in one straight line.. "Leave or Die" is what the Russians say.. and I'm inclined to believe them.. Shame the SP is going up in these circumstances.

Canada banned Russian oil imports yesterday.. Didn't import much but will of course source what it needs elsewhere.

Brent : June 22 is $100.36 : Perhaps $110 when we get there in 3 mths time.

Guess everyone popped out to McDonalds.

Must admit it looks like Putin will just destroy Kiev if needed. Think Brent $110 in a month or two.. irrespective of Iran.

But Enquest ? no real change until the info changes.. Production always trends down unless your drilling.. All we have is assumed decent monthly debt reduction.. A company that's moved away from going concerns issues to one that's still not attractive to the new larger investors.

Many inmates think the same.. but end up back in cell after a short stroll.

All costs to run this are $960m per annum , say $53 per barrel based on upper end of production guidance. Even allowing for hedged production at $78, we still make a decent margin. This will rerate on facts, not possibilities. Even so, nice to see North Sea oil is of strategic importance and potential fields like Bentley and Bressay have become more valuable.

Guess Putin can carry on for a few months, More concerned about food and drink availability for residents in Ukraine. Hopefully open above 21p , Bloomberg suggesting US oilers will perform better than Europeans ones. China now distancing itself from Russia. When will we see a £500m market cap ? Guess BP will decline tomorrow.