SP17 Nov 2022 11:50
Too much expectation of BENS atm. The company is barely a year old and achieved much. Sp got cooked high on speculation and collapsed as unsupported by hard numbers. Until we have a regular / monthly +ve earnings figures, capable of being scrutinised by an analyst or two, the sp is not going to move in any direction with conviction or sustainability. Currently its being blown up and down by sentiment on very low volume. The hoped / anticipated +ve numbers will only become achievable once we are moving coal in reliable and consistent volumes which will enable aforementioned analysts to set pricing, leading hopefully to uplift of sp. It doesnt matter whether statements are made about 2HWM or 10HWM - the market needs hard and reliable numbers evidencing a track record which probably will not start to become available for at least 6 months. Add into this mix the price of metcoal, availability of trains and recession.
Re the promise of a thumping divi, its not going to lead to a sustainable sp rerate. Nice to have but it wont make a material change to the II market.
This time next year, if we evidence +ve numbers, we might however be achieving real value and a great result for LT PI's.
All IMHO GLA