Member Info for Hexam

Yes you are Hedge because all the examples gave are companies/people which were copied because they had the vision first (or at least did it best first) and others followed. I'm not questioning the vision, the rewards or the risk just my scepticism of FG's statement that there is nobody trying to do the same thing - and that I would be extremely worried if they weren't.

You seem to have gone into full on defensive mode assuming I'm saying something that I'm not.

You're all making my point for me. Thank you.

Even if they were far ahead of the game others would still be trying to catch up surely.

“how do you know they’re not, would you advertise it to the world, I don’t think so.”

Exactly Garwood. I’m not saying they’re not. It’s FG that’s saying that not me. As I said, I hope he is wrong as the alternative is really not good in my view.

Haha bob - If I thought anything posted here had any effect on the sp I would indeed shut up and let the most fervent rampers just get on with it as I'd like the sp to go up too. Just genuinely curious though as how some investors don't find it all concerning that there is supposedly still nobody else at least trying to do the same thing. Oh well.

"Because nobody thought it was possible" - and seemingly still don't if they are still not trying and this is despite QBT trying to convince everybody that it is. Once some new invention or idea starts to gets noticed and the huge potential recognised then it generally starts to get copied left, right and centre. Sorry, but the argument that only QBT have the brains or the will to do this just doesn't wash in my eyes. I just hope it's just another thing FG has got wrong.

"Thirdly, Brexit has NOTHING to do with anything we’re facing today"

Daftest comment on the year so far. Well done you, just getting in your entry in the nick of time. There were lots of people (over 17m?) who voted for Brexit for lots of different reasons but I can't seriously believe many did it because they really thought it would make the country better off financially. Then again, reading these boards...

Then answer me this: Why something so potentially groundbreaking and of gigantic value still, after all this time, has nobody else (with much, much deeper pockets) trying to do the same thing? The only two plausible answers to me are either he is wrong, and there are others, or nobody else thinks it's possible and so not worth the effort. I'm hoping it's the first reason.

Am I the only one that thinks that's a bit of a red flag?

"So standard accounting language is used as Ltd axis posted" - Yes, but he also posted "of course those words wouldn’t be there if there were no material uncertainty".

Of course there is material uncertainty regarding QBT as a going concern and it doesn't take an auditor or an accountant to know that - there is no revenue, there are ongoing costs, there is a fair bit of debt and not a great deal of assets. (And you won't find any such wording in the accounts of most other companies.)

So it is not surprising and it is certainly not news (was mentioned in the interims for example) and although the recent placing would have helped a little the "material uncertainly" won't go away until they begin bringing in meaningful and sustainable revenue. So once again it simply comes down to whether deals materialise and the quality of any such deals.

So to dismiss the text as just "standard wording" is nonsense but so is trying to make out this is something extra to worry about above what we already knew. But I suppose it's a good excuse for the 'us and them' merry-go-round to continue. Sigh.

Yes, miners need BTC to double from here to get the same revenue post-halving that they enjoy now - that's assuming they grow their EH enough to keep pace with normal increases in difficulty. For those that lack the capacity to grow much (like ARB) they will probably need at least $100k just to stand still (and that's before questions of debt repayments due). No-one knows what BTC will do - could be a lot more than $100k next year or a lot less - but we do know that it will be carnage if it is the latter.

"Hope people didn’t listen to the persistent Argo knockers"

I don't think you've been listening at all as nobody has been suggesting there won't be trading opportunities on ARB (in fact most have said there will be explicitly). What some of us have said though is that we do not see a long-term rosy future for ARB all the reasons that have been covered many times here and can readily be seen by a quick glance at the financials together with a basic knowledge of BTC mining. That still stands in my view and by the way, ARB may be up 100% in the last month but MARA is up 120% and CLSK 140% - and they both carry a lot less risk than ARB.

"Question was why are they on here 24/7 bashing with negative comments . ?"

Probably the most often asked and tiresome question (or variations thereof) on these boards .

There are least four possible reasons in my view:

1) They are people who think they can drive the price down to gain a good entry point in the same way rampers might do what they do to drive the price up to get a good exit point. Both equally obnoxious in my view and just wasting their time.

2) They may simply like to argue with people on social media and this just happens to be their chosen forum. Again can apply to rampers but at least by being invested the platform sort of choses them. Both sad though. Are better things to do in life but it takes all sorts.

3) They are just negative people who don't like seeing other people happy (the reverse is positive people who don't like seeing other people being negative). Odd, but again different folks, different strokes.

4) They may simply object to the mischief, exaggerations and outright lies told by the worst of the rampers and the dangers all this misleading talk may cause to would-be investors sucked into the hype (especially on a spike). This group is extremely useful and every bit as much as the other 'side' that object to the the mischief, exaggerations and outright lies told by the worst of the trolls and the dangers all this misleading talk may cause to actual investors. The risk is that these 'do-gooders' on both sides get so zealous in their cause they actual become part of the problem themselves.

In short there are good and bad reasons why they may be doing it (and probably more reasons I haven't mentioned) but I think this board suffers more than most with the bad reasons as the ramping is sometimes off the scale and so is the trolling - and they feed each other. And so any benefits from hearing both the positives and negatives - which is key in any board being at all useful - is drowned out by the childish tit-for-tat, abuse, moronic questions that are frequently repeated and all the crazy claims and counter claims.

Merry Christmas.

Alex - I think Rolls and Boo are different in the sense that RR was on its knees during Covid with lots of vultures gathering for the end but if it could survive it would likely thrive. BOO on the other hand isn't in any danger of folding as it has a pretty healthy balance sheet though agree it could be at risk of a lowball offer (although one being accepted is another matter altogether). Its problem instead is in recovering decent growth and margin which the environment, and especially the competition, is making very hard for them.

As Wolf says, the US COULD make all the difference but for me I'll be happy to exit with just some kind of profit for BOO rather than aim for the stars. That's just a personal view though and I could end up exiting far too early but happy to take that risk.

Good post Alex. Rolls has been an excellent stock for me though I’m not sure it’s got that much further to go so I’m going to try to not be too greedy (easier said than done)! Agree with your comments on Boo but personally I think the scope for a rebound is not so great as it was with Rolls as the environment and competition is a lot tougher now for them but who knows?

Must admit when anybody starts a post with "pmsl" I just stop reading. Also anything at all from chats.

"I've always seen little sense in averaging down."

Wolf - I think it depends on the reason why the sp is moving. Averaging down makes sense to me if the price is dropping and there is no obvious reason for it in the fundamentals - so if you thought it was cheap before and you can now get it cheaper then why not? If the price has gone down though because of bad news then there's a good chance it's not better value - and may actually be a lot worse. Similar logic can apply to a rising price. What I don't get though is why people buy at one price one day and then again at a similar price the next day or whenever and keep repeating.

Of course the risk with averaging down is that it is too much like chasing losses in gambling and it might be better to just stop and think whether you were really right to think it was cheap in the first place and also be wary of becoming overexposed in one stock through stubbornness or addiction.

So must admit that without major news I've never bought any stock at a higher price than my previous transaction (if that was also a buy) or sold at a lower price than my previous transaction (if that was also a sell). Just doesn't make sense to me.

PAS - I never said there wasn’t a link, just that there wasn’t nearly as strong a link as with miners. Btw ARB is a poor miner to pick as it has deviated from BTC for lots of reasons - not least the disastrous outcome of its strategy with Helios and very nearly going bankrupt.

"I remember a few people questioning my reasoning for topping up in stages from 35p down to 28p"

That makes sense, but that's not what you were doing was it? You were topping up all over the place and kept topping up at one price and the next time at a higher price. That makes a lot less sense obviously - but you had your reasons and fair play - but once again you are trying to rewrite history.

ARB has gone up with BTC (despite being in a right old mess still) because ARB mines BTC and its revenue is going up directly in line with BTC price. QBT doesn't mine BTC and has no revenue at all (linked to BTC or otherwise). Why would investors pump more money into QBT just because of BTC rising when any benefits of this are still conditional on an unknown (i.e. a deal being done) when they can invest in any miner that benefits unconditionally? There will be a secondary benefit for QBT sp as it makes POTENTIAL revenue better but it will not move in the same way miners (and never has) until they have an actual revenue linked directly to BTC.

As it is investors are gambling primarily on a deal or no deal basis and what will drive the share price much more is anything that points to that deal being more or less likely. Or, obviously, an actual deal.