Member Info for Hexam

Apologies BobSocks - I misunderstood what you were trying to do (and it was very different to what I was trying to work out). I can see why you needed to program it for your question.

"lets kick the 'pomposity' out of the door"

Great idea! Perhaps starting with the 'my lawyer is bigger than your lawyer' kind of nonsense?

"If you even half believe that, then why on Earth are you investing in AIM shares?"

Seriously? Just look at the rhetoric of CEOs and the actual outcome on many AIM shares - and main market come to that (CINE, IOG, ARB, HE1 etc. etc.). I don't claim to be doing anything more sophisticated than gambling on AIM. All I have done is do what any half-decent gambler does - evaluate the odds given against the chances I think it has. As part of that I've simply bothered to work out what the actual result might be on revenues if the 2.6x was true (and it's huge). I hadn't seen anybody else do anything similar on this board - instead it just seems to be childish squabbling and name calling between those with entrenched views.

So I do think it's a 'sensible' and 'reasoned' decision. Like all investment decisions it is simply trying to pick shares that you think have more value than the sp suggests based on research and evaluation. The situation here is just more extreme than with most companies i.e. huge rewards, for huge risk. If I thought the chances were one in a million I wouldn't invest anything. I think they are around 1 in 10 or 20 and as the rewards would I think be much more than this if successful I've invested. It's not rocket science.

"and surely his cue should be a good giveaway as to where talks and the company are"

I wouldn't trust any AIM CEO. I much prefer actual, verifiable evidence (but that's just me perhaps). If and when they produce any then that's when the rocket will take off - which will probably too late for anybody not already invested hence taking a chance now.

"Typical preparation for "What a great investment this was, I was so clever. I analysed it carefully and invested just at the right time and the faith in my analysis paid off handsomely"....."

Nope - preparation for expecting to come out with nothing but if it does come off I just got lucky that's all. It's a very high risk, very high reward gamble. Nothing clever about it - just not being dumb enough to think it's a sure thing or even very likely.

That sounds like over-engineering to me. The business and its drivers are very simple and a random number generator will just give random results. Rubbish in, rubbish out. Just perhaps a worst case scenario, a best case scenario and a few in between - and assign your own probability to each - should do the trick but have at it with the program and good luck interpreting the results!

"so it seems the miners are happy"

I really don't see any evidence of this - it's just all talk at the moment and speculative supposing - which is why I rate the chances of it actually happening as very small (though not quite as small as the market seemingly does). So I'm in for a small punt and am under no illusions as to how high the risk is.

"Yes Hexam the market does not rate their chances as being high I would say the market is giving them 5% chance of success."

I'm going with about 5% but I think the market is giving it less that 1% . 'Success' being 2.6x being delivered in the real world - with deals to match.

"I think it will be slightly more flexible than a spreadsheet."

I'm sure it will be but it doesn't need to be - not unless your building a whole probability model rather than a few simple scenarios. For example if they did a deal with MARA (who have 4% of global EH) and they put it on all their machines and they gave the same uplift as in testing (i.e. 160% though obviously this doesn't quite give 160% extra BTC for MARA - more like 144%) and they share 20% of this with QBT how much revenue would this generate for QBT?

I make it around $150m p.a. initially, based on $40k BTC, compared to a current mcap of around $30m. So the size of the prize is enormous - it's the chances that are very small. Would be interested though in what your program generates?

"I am going to be sad and write a simple program that demonstrates how much coin QBT will turn once it is in operation"

Bob - I'm sad enough to have done that already and as with all things BTC it was pretty straightforward. You don't need a program just a spreadsheet, a few parameters and a handful of sums. The payoff is obvious and huge - it's the chances of success that are unknown and that everybody is gambling on.

To be fair Zesty I don't think they can pull it off either but as you say the rewards are huge if they do and I think their chances are a bit better than the very low sp suggests. So I've risked a tiny amount which I think I will very likely lose but if the odds are landed will turn instead into a very handsome sum indeed. In the meantime hopefully there is another tease of progress that will lift the sp and give me the opportunity of a free ride with my remaining stake.

Yes, the sp will rocket the moment they announce the first customer but it will do that regardless of the BTC price. A high BTC just gives the rocket an extra boost. If there is no deal forthcoming then it won’t get off the launch pad at all whatever BTC does.

So unlike miners the price of BTC is only a secondary, much more muted driver as has been clearly seen lately. The deal, or even the latest tease of a deal, is king and all that really matters.

The market clearly rates the chances of any such deal as slim, certainly much, much less than 50/50, but stranger things have happened - even a proper White Christmas (not just a few flakes in the Cairngorms)!

Not sure why you think the debt pile has only reduced by €250m in 2023? The debt has gone down from nearly €5.3bn to $4.2bn and net debt from €3.4bn to €2.1bn. Unless by 'after capital raises' you mean not allowing for the €1.1bn from the equity raise (after repaying state aid)?

In any event the current 'debt pile' of $4.2bn includes $2.9bn of lease liabilities which will simply be paid out of the now ample cash flow when the lease payments are due. The real debt is only around $1.3bn which doesn't sound much of a burden at all to me given the company's size and profitability. I certainly can't see any need for any further capital raises now that they are back to profitability and the debt is under control - unless of course they are on the acquisition trail which seems very unlikely!

I think quite of few of those ‘buys’ are actually sells judging by the prices.

Exactly Fleccy.

Cheers Savage - though apologies again that my 'interrogation' came up with the wrong answer on P/E initially. Helps to read the right column! :-(

I haven't posted much on TUI as not too much happens and luckily it is a board that doesn't suffer much from either trolls or out-and-out rampers - so not much gibberish to counter. Also I tend to post less on investments I'm more confident on and TUI is probably still top of that list :-)

I'm not suggesting Mara at all. Just saying that they are the biggest.

Think it's just a typo. Should be 200ma at 40p. Whether that still means anything either depends on how much faith you place in such things.

""We find it earlier so we don't need to continue hashing for the remaining of the time." Brilliant now we are all disagreeing with FG.""

I find it best not to take what he says literally. He's clearly not an expert (nor am I) but would have hoped he would be advised on what to say by people who are. In this case he clearly wasn't advised (or was advised very badly)!

Mara is the largest miner with about 4% of the hashrate. I think they would want more than that so maybe would want to come to an arrangement with several miners i.e. 'exclusive' but not that exclusive e.g. miners might go with a 10% limit say?