Member Info for Hexam

HC - Maybe I was a bit loose with my wording. If BTC does hit $100k then I'm pretty sure they can last at least a year, I just don't think they will necessarily survive much longer than that (and by 'much longer' I mean 3+ years). In a year difficulty will probably be at least 4x what it is now (especially if BTC rockets) so I don't think $100k will leave them in a much better position than they are now - and it will only get worse after that (unless BTC keeps on rising quickly).

I agree they could get to 25p in the right circumstances but, to use your word, I can't see them ever 'thriving' again.

I think any bull run needs to sends BTC close to $100k for them to survive much beyond 12 months and even then I think that is all they can do as they are so far behind in the race that they can't catch up the rest. I don't feel they'll be in a position to raise enough money to clear debts and certainly not to do that AND have enough leftover to grow meaningfully.

I just cannot see them surviving long-term under any scenario - even if BTC goes way beyond $100k (as some believe) as they'd still just fall further behind those who already have the capacity to grow and eventually difficulty will catch up with price and they'd start sinking again. It could still be a bit of a rollercoaster until then so probably some trading opportunities especially if the bull run is soon and big.

Seif was unremarkable but tbf that’s probably what they needed to plug the holes and stop the ship from sinking altogether - which he did. The new guy needs to do something extraordinary still to keep it afloat. They took a worryingly long time to find someone so let’s just hope the delay was worth it and he is capable of pulling off a miracle.

Being cynical I would say a nice juicy salary and having come in after the damage has already been done he can hardly be blamed too much when the seemingly inevitable happens so shouldn’t be too much risk to his reputation.

Well the folk on the QBT board are already dissected the wording, found the 'clues' and seemingly solved the mystery. Reminds me of the 'good' old days here - maaaaaybe.

I’m just pointing out what you said is untrue and can easily be proved as such. You can keep peddling this particular lie if you wish but it is you who will end as embarrassed when BOO report their next results and any uplift in RevB sp doesn’t show up in BOO’s results. Up to you.

Just to be clear Jeremy it doesn’t. I’m used to you making up stuff and getting everything wrong so I usually just ignore your posts but you only have to read the last results RNS to know that what you are saying is blatantly not true.

If you don’t understand the wording please ask someone to help you but in the meantime please stop misleading people.

What shows in BOO’s profit line is about 27% of whatever RevB show as profit - it does not depend on sp at all unless they sell the shares.

Just to repeat, none of the RevB sp rise will show up as profit for BOO unless they actually sell the shares. It won’t even show as paper profit.

Do you mean grow by £1.5bn as the revenue is already £3bn? I'm not sure that's at all likely but if they can hit their operating profit target of 6% then I agree this will have a huge impact on the sp whether the revenue is £2, 3 or 4 billion. It will be a tough challenge though and I'd be happy if they just get most of the way there as that should be enough to raise the sp significantly.

“TA is for trading not investing for the long term. In calm conditions”

Agreed Wolf, TA can be a predictor of short term movements due largely I think to the self-fulfilling element especially if algorithms are designed around certain patterns. These will still obviously be overridden by any major news and for any LTH are pretty meaningless unless looking to trade at that particular time.

It’s seems though that a lot of people are obsessed with the day-to-day share price movement (and possible reasons behind it) but if you have confidence the company will come good, and it does, the share price will follow. It’s not going to significantly recover just magically all by itself though without major news or indicators that signpost improvement. So personally as a LTH I don’t care too much whether a share goes up or down a bit on a particular day so long as I remain confident in the long term prospects and think the current sp reflects value against these.

For BOO I am still confident so am waiting patiently for positive news - though admit up days still feel nicer than down days!

"Why do you feel the need to bite ?"

Well, you did practically invite me to by naming me specifically and 'quoting' me.

You are right I have not researched TA in detail - I just do not believe in the whole concept, just as I don't believe in horoscopes (which I haven't researched a lot either). I admit I may be completely wrong on both and they may have far more meaning than I give them credit for. It's just an opinion and I gave reasons for it - I don't expect everybody to agree with them.

What I do strongly disagree with though is simply because it involves mathematics that this in itself makes it any more credible. As far as I'm aware (correct me if I'm wrong) there are no formulae, rules etc. that have been proven to give a certain probability of an event happening (unlike when rolling a fair die or tossing a coin where you know what the exact probability of a five or a head coming up - or when launching a rocket exactly what the trajectory should be if nothing goes wrong). So even though the TA may suggest probabilities and even give values to them there is no way of isolating factors and validating these. Any maths is just either in determining an historic event/value (e.g. a 100 day average or whatever) or making a prediction that is based on implicit assumptions and which can never be proved. So for example even if you believe from your analysis that there is a 60% chance of something happening it either will or won't but you will never know if that 60% was an accurate figure or not (there is no proven mathematical formula and you can't run the same 'experiment' hundreds of times to find out).

Put simply we are all just looking for clues - we just look in different places depending on what we believe. I just happen to put a lot more faith in fundamentals and management actions. Other use TA much more whilst some seem obsessed with what shorters are up to or what MMs may or may not be doing. There are many others methods I'm sure and any number of combinations of them. None of them are perfect as at it all relies on guesswork and judgement in the end but everybody just has to find what they believe in and feel comfortable with. So let's just agree to disagree?

OK, I'll bite. Yes, TA employs maths but not in the sense that it 'proves' or accurately predicts anything (unlike with building bridges, rockets or the movement of the planets etc.). It relies on assumptions like what has happened before will happen the same way again which will never be exactly the case with sp behaviour, and often very far from it as it is not following any proven rule or law as to the certainty, or even the probability, of something happening - even if there are no other influences. And of course there are plenty of other influences, like macroeconomic, profit warnings/upgrades, poor product design, management performance etc. etc.

I could equally say astrology is maths based (as it uses the movement of the planets) but I'm not going to live my life by it. I would cross a bridge though as I assume they've done the maths right and there should be little risk of anything else going wrong (though it can do very rarely). I'd be less keen on going up in a rocket though as whilst the maths may be perfect there is more opportunity for unexpected bad things to happen!

So I confess I am not remotely interested in TA and find the reference to patterns in the graph (often with funky names) every bit as fanciful as the pattern of the planets in the sky are in determining my future according to my horoscope.

That said, in both cases there is an element of self-fulfilling prophecy. So for example if a horoscope says you are going to meet a tall dark handsome stranger you may go out looking for one and find one. If a chart suggests a resistance point or gives a bullish/bearish sign then enough people may act to make it a reality. Just my view though and if others want to believe in it then that of course is up to them - I'll just stick to my tea leaves :-)

Also, just to add, that I've never noticed anybody making predictions using TA being any more or less accurate than anybody else - though those using TA usually cover every possibility so can claim they are right whatever happens!

And that £60m or so that is forecast is for the adjusted profit - would expect the unadjusted number to be a loss still.

But it's what happens moving forward that matters and the painful history of how Capita got to where it is (and the sp with it) is just that - history.

The challenge now is whether they can reach their 6% operating target (and more). How successful they are in that (or not) will determine where the sp goes but at least they seem to be moving in the right direction now.

Well he’s still made more money on Capita in days than I have so far in years (as I’m underwater) so I’m certainly not going to knock him!

He may also not be paying tax (ISA, SIPP, below threshold, losses to offset etc.)

“Now responding to green bars that he cant respond to.”

He also seems to be responding to his own post so looks as if he’s filtered himself. Impressive.

I thought selling at a profit WAS the actual point of it all so banking one doesn't seem odd to me especially if they think the next move is downwards. And 1.5p is still around 8% so not too shabby for what might only be a few days 'work'.

Chaotic flip-flopping make-believe I think just about sums it up.

Fair enough Trisor. The UT is of some interest as it sets the closing price but it's not as if any of us can trade at that price. Other than that I'm baffled as to why it's made such of a fuss over especially whether it's on the 'buy side' or sell side' as that just tells us if there was more demand to buy or to sell at whatever the price was that maximised the number of trades in that particular auction. Can't see why anybody would care, especially a LTH.

“It’s not on the buy side”.

Trisor - I don’t know whether it is or it isn’t but does it matter at all? The UT is of very little relevance, unless of course you actually take part in the auction, and whether it is on the buy or sell side has even less importance.

As many of us have been saying for some time it's all very well winning contracts, getting a new CEO etc. but the thing that really matters is profit (and cash flow). It's only when they demonstrate they are serious on this and will actually deliver on it that we'll see the sp rise significantly. So the repetitive hype from the likes or NoFear and Sharehead or the attacks from AIM are just exaggerated claims (at best) to serve a particular agenda.

Today saw some real (not just words) and significant news on this - albeit unfortunate for the staff involved - and the sp moved. If they can follow this up with more savings, particularly around property, better margin contracts or other things to improve margins on the path to their 6% operating target AND finally be rid of the one-offs that seem to endlessly drag on the overall results, then the sp could really rocket. If not and this just proves to be an isolated sticking plaster then it will stutter again.

The next update should be telling, though I think it will be a little longer before we get a really good idea of the rocket's trajectory. I'm just glad I'm on board for the moment and feeling a bit more confident than I was - but certainly not complacent as there is still a lot more that needs to change. All just my views of course.