Member Info for Hexam

""We find it earlier so we don't need to continue hashing for the remaining of the time." Brilliant now we are all disagreeing with FG.""

I find it best not to take what he says literally. He's clearly not an expert (nor am I) but would have hoped he would be advised on what to say by people who are. In this case he clearly wasn't advised (or was advised very badly)!

Mara is the largest miner with about 4% of the hashrate. I think they would want more than that so maybe would want to come to an arrangement with several miners i.e. 'exclusive' but not that exclusive e.g. miners might go with a 10% limit say?

The only way the 2.6x could possibly be true in reality (assuming it does work) is if it is NOT in a pool with other miners (else they would share in the extra 'winnings' and so dilute the impact) AND if you put it on a relatively small number of machines. The more machines it is put on the less difference it has to what you mined before because difficulty would be adjusted to preserve the 10 minute average. In the extreme case if all machines had the software then obviously nobody would mine any extra BTC at all and so it would just become a hygiene factor

So I think miners will want to strike some kind of exclusivity deal - if they do believe in it.

"BOB,what if at exactly 12 noon a bit coin is released,, then we mine a bit coin at 12.04, if we are so quick then the other side of the coin is we could possibly, be ready for the next coin at 12.10 and win every coin before anyone else,it doesnt matter how many machines are looking for the next coin as we will always win,in theory ."

That's not true either I'm afraid as it's not like a 100m race otherwise the fastest runner (miner) would indeed win every time. Instead think of it as a treasure hunt where everybody else is searching in an area that is 2.6x larger. The other treasure hunters (miners) could still get lucky and find the treasure first but it is just much less likely.

That's assuming of course that what QBT is claiming translates to reality which is a very big if (at least according to the market).

"Realise that mining is constrained to 10 minute windows."

It's not actually. The difficulty is set so that on AVERAGE it takes ten minutes to mine a block. It could take much longer or a lot less to mine an individual block and once a block is mined it's immediately onto the next one - nobody will switch off their machines just because a block is mined - they all run 24/7 (unless they are required to shut down for maintenance, power agreements etc.)

"Of course, this is a company that can grow although it's not a growth company."

Exactly Happy :-)

"And always ready to tell you how the company can't grow..."

Has anybody said this?

Hi Stupmy - Yahoo look like they haven't updated for the actual numbers and may not be translating the financials into sterling. There is also the complication for TUI of not all the profits being attributable to shareholders (which tbh I'm not 100% sure of how to deal with but assume only those that are should be included). Usually the P/E ratio calculation is straightforward but for TUI (just like with the RI if you remember) it's not quite that simple!

"Base this on a P/E of 4 against its peers..."

I fear you may have got this from my post where I mistakenly took the earnings from Q4 rather than the whole year. The actual P/E ratio is closer to a more typical 10 but still very tasty looking given the 25% improvement in underlying EBIT forecast for next year.

Another thing to note is that they have relatively low bank debt now - just €0.7bn plus convertible bonds of €0.5bn compared to cash of €2.1bn. So a far healthier looking balance sheet these days with the net debt position driven instead by lease liabilities (€2.9bn) which obviously don't need paying back in the same way as loans do (the future lease payments are simply met out of future revenues just like any other cost and the numbers clearly show they can be met comfortably leaving high cashflow and profit). Even if including lease liabilities in the debt numbers the net debt is actually lower than 2019.

So all in all no surprise to see the strong uplift yesterday and good to see it holding (so far) today. I still think much better is to come but of course we've seen a succession of bad headlines plaguing the industry of late and the risk/fear of more is no doubt holding prices back - but hoping for calmer times ahead!

Oops - sorry I thought a P/E ratio below 4 just didn't sound right!! I was just looking at Q4 profits not full year profits but still a similar message applies - though not quite so obvious! Sorry about that!!

"For balance, I wish to point out that this share is ex-growth. It's a poorly managed company that has no future."

I think that's a bit harsh Happy as although I agree it is certainly not a 'growth company' anymore and arguably has been poorly managed I think it definitely has a decent future - especially if better management take it over ;-)

Great price rise today - just another 23p to go and I'm outta here!

"so EZJ has an mcap of c£3.6B as of now and whilst we have one at £2.9B, whilst we produce more than double their EBIT and 2.5x their sales?? Go figure?"

Hi Mike,

I always work from profit after tax for valuations (as that includes everything and is the basis for P/E ratios) but it's much the same picture. EZJ has a P/E ratio of around 10 (pretty typical) whereas TUI is under 4 (extraordinarily low still). It could be explained partly by different growth outlooks but the most impressive thing for me about today's results was the forecast of at least 25% increase to underlying EBIT next year! So really don't know why TUI mcap is so low given it's profitability which is why it remains my largest investment even after taking some off the table after today's rise.

I think you're right, with the help of a few analyst upgrades this could really fly (sorry, hard to avoid any pun as lift-off, going places etc. are just as bad)!

Pluto has little to do with where ARB is now and being the 'worst miner' (which I agree it probably is). It is because of the desperation sale of the real crown jewels (Helios) and so many new mining machines (all for knockdown prices), the large amount of debt and the small amount of cash (with little scope to raise much more) - plus an ageing mining fleet.

Still trading opportunities as BTC rises but little to no long term value I'm afraid.

"Once boohoo reach their current infrastructure capacity, a 300p share price will hardly be a crazy multiple now will it."

Yes, it will. You believe BOO will meet or even exceed their own targets. I'm sceptical given the increased competition and their poor record over the last couple of years in meeting guidance but if you choose to believe them without much doubt then fair enough. Just means you're much more optimistic than me.

To get to a £3 SP though they would be need to be worth approaching £4bn. I cannot see how they could come close to that unless their after tax profits (not just EBITDA) were well north of £300m UNLESS they can show prospects of future growth much higher than 10% p.a. The US venture could be key to proving me wrong, let's hope so, but you are valuing a company more on the business it used to be (and environment it was then in) not on what it is now or is likely to be. Too much living in the past and trying to apply the same logic again as then - rarely turns out well as things change.

"I don't think half the people that post even realise how big boohoo and its infrastructure are"

That's exactly why they are not comparable to THG and HC (among other reasons) and why they won't see again the crazy multiples on which they were valued before even if they do get back to the same level of profits. Yet again you unwittingly help make my point for me. Thank You :-)

"It's essential not to assume that current market assessments are always accurate" - agreed and in fact they rarely are but I think it's disingenuous to only pick out THG and HC as there are plenty more examples that have gone the other way (particularly on AIM), they are both very different situations to BOO and besides neither THG or HC got back to anywhere near their ATHs (particularly THG even if they had accepted the offer).

Apologies. I thought you were saying £1.50 isn't a reasonable fair value (today) and that £3-£4 was.

I think they will need much more than pre-covid profits though just to get back to £1.50 as they won't be valued with the same views on future growth as before. And just can't see them ever being over £3 again unless something really extraordinary happens.

"It's disheartening yet somewhat amusing that some shareholders believe £1.50 is a fair value for Boohoo."

I honestly thought you were then going to explain why you thought £1.50 was unrealistically high as a fair value - but you went the other way! I don't think they are forecasting margins returning to pre-covid levels by 2025 - assuming you are talking EBIDTA margins which they are targeting 6-8% in the 'medium term' so a bit lower than pre-covid and further away. They say they are still confident in achieving this but given recent misses and increasing competition it's not hard to see why the market clearly doesn't share that confidence (or yours) - hence the value of 34p.

I also believe it's undervalued though, but perhaps 50-60p not £1.50 and certainly not £3-£4. Of course if they start making real progress towards their goal then the market will clearly get more bullish about future assumptions and so estimates of fair value will increase and your own valuation could be vindicated eventually. In the meantime I think it reasonable rather than 'amusing' to put fair value at no more than £1.50 - and probably a lot less though everybody will have their own view of what is reasonable to assume in the future and with what level of confidence.

Hi Speel - I'm not so sure the miners are doing as bad as all that actually. Yes, they are a bit subdued today but looking at the last month they've mostly outperformed BTC and some by a fair bit.

BTC is up around 25% whereas CLSK is up 120% with MARA and BITF both up around 65%. WULF, RIOT and even ARB have also outpaced BTC but by not so much. The only really disappointing one of those I invest in or follow has been HUT which has been flat over the last month but even that is now showing signs of life post merger. Picking a different time period obviously gives different results - especially if go back 3 months but I think the slow reaction by the miners may because although BTC was rising the miners were still losing money (just less of it). Now with BTC over $43k some will now being making profit and all of them will be generating cash so the sentiment may have returned and the leveraging is kicking in.

However, the rises are still not like those we have seen before but I think many investors have now wised up to the weird and precarious economics of the industry. The impact of difficulty increases (including the doubling at halving) and needing to constantly raise to grow, or even just refresh, their fleets means that they may be turning profitable now but how long will it last? As others have also said, they can't all survive long term so whilst there will probably be a few winners (maybe only one or two?) there are inevitably going to be plenty of losers who will fall by the wayside, so it's very high risk - especially if you only pick one or two. Some time though and plenty of trading opportunities I think before the dominos begin to fall.

"Everyone has an agenda. Everyone."

Clearly that includes you then Roger, so what's yours? Just because you have an agenda (by your own admission) it doesn't mean everybody else has one. Personally I post simply because I am interested in investments, like to share/ exchange information (whether positive or negative so long as it is well reasoned) and hopefully pick up something useful on the way. If that is an 'agenda' then so be it - I'd say it's more of a reason but maybe that's just semantics. I suspect HC has a similar 'agenda'/'reason' but that's for him to answer.

I wouldn't dare give investment advice to anybody on this board, not my place, and would always urge people to do their own thorough research including never taking anything on here at face value but to check for yourself.

The only other 'advice' I'd give to GM402 is don't invest in ARB (or any company) simply based on a graph and seeing how high the previous peaks were. Read into why the sp has fallen, it's been covered widely (including on this board and 0134 has summed it up succinctly) and draw your own conclusions as whether it deserves to be where it is and what chance it has of digging itself of its hole. A saunter through the RNS's and latest accounts is particularly recommended.

GM402 - You also say you can't think of any other opportunities but there are plenty of miners in North America that can be invested in from the UK (just need to fill in a simple form if you haven't so already) plus other stocks both UK and internationally that have links to crypto in some way if that's you bag. I won't name any though in case it's seen as an 'agenda' (pushing a share) but just to say a lot of the overseas ones get mentioned on this board as they don't have a board of their own on LSE. Good luck with your researching and investing.