Member Info for Hexam

I thought withholding tax was only paid on dividends - which are unlikely anyway for miners. There is no tax on gains so long as you are investing via an ISA. So as far as I can see, for all intents and purposes, investing in US miners via an ISA is tax-free (unless they start paying dividends).

“That aside, if btc is at 100k then smart people who continually test their hypotheses like James from Incest Answers , and Sebastian the bitcoin mining guy both think Argo would be safe at 100k.”

It may make them safe for a while but $100k is certainly not enough to make them profitable post halving so they need more to survive longer term. If James or Sebastian think otherwise then maybe they are not as smart as all that but I suspect they aren’t suggesting that (as they are better than most out there - though neither is infallible). It’s better really to draw your own conclusions than rely on others.

"but btc is going to be safely above 100k (average predictions are 130k)" - is it? Those are just predictions of from people with vested interests (predictions were very similar two years ago - they didn't turn out to be very good at all did they)? It could be a lot more than $100k or a lot less than $100k - point is nobody knows hence the risk.

"and that is more than enough for them to regain profitability". No, it isn't. Come halving they will need BTC to be a lot more than $100k to be profitable.

"a raise to wipe out the debt and expand is easily on the horizon" To do both would need a raise north of $100m. Seriously?? How's that going to happen for a business with only a slim chance of being profitable and that couldn't even raise $10m last time? Also they need to replace their ageing machines before having thoughts of expanding.

I admire your enthusiasm but your post is very misleading - and that's putting it mildly.

"Detractors will wang on about halving and profitability."

And what's wrong with that? I agree completely that sentiment and the view that "Fundamentals won t matter once hype strikes in. Stupid money will buy anything" means that the price could still rise a lot higher. The boring old profitability etc. side though means it won't last forever and the pain will be felt when the inevitable raise(s) happens and the bubble will burst completely when they finally run out of options. So there is hay to be made whilst the music is playing - just be careful to get out before it stops.

I see chats didn’t get a dictionary for Christmas. Shame.

...of course HC the public's pockets aren't so deep so even if there is a lot more interest now I still can't see a direction changing amount being raised.

*there will

HC. I agree, I don't think their will be much appetite among institutions given their balance sheet etc. but if they make it available to the public then I think it could be a lot more popular. Just look at this board - it was pretty dead only a short time ago but now many are just seeing a bandwagon to jump on again - never mind the financials!

"Thank you. Just curious on your recommendation based upon your research (of course not financial advice)

At the current price of 24.5/25.5, is your recommendation to buy, hold, sell, or short? I’m not trying to catch you out, just curious. Thx."

CD - Not sure if that is aimed at me but I would never give any recommendation of what others should do with their money and even if I did I don't have a crystal ball that says what the price will do short term. It could easily double or halve in the next few weeks depending on BTC, news on ETF, FOMO, a raise or whatever,

The fundamentals are clear cut though and have been covered here many times, and no amount of FOMO or ramping can get the sp to the dizzy heights it once was (i.e. £3+) so be particularly wary of anybody suggesting it can simply because it did before. With the stock rising fast there will no doubt be plenty more rainbow chasing rampers with their talk of rockets going to the moon and their wild conspiracy theories, and of course also plenty of trolls trying to urge you to sell before Armageddon arrives. My only advice would be to ignore both extremes, do your own research and make your own mind up with your eyes wide open as much as possible.

“Shouldn’t the valuation be based upon future earnings”

Exactly, that’s my point. ARB cannot make any earnings post halving unless BTC is well above $100k, let alone enough profit to justify its current mcap. There will also be significant dilution well before that.

The numbers just don’t add up for ARB and if, as some believe, BTC does climb well over $100k then other miners will do much better than ARB - especially those with heathy balance sheets and large HODLs.

Just spend five minutes looking at their costs, their debt and their assets (including the age of their machines).

It certainly seems to be an intriguing game of chicken. The mcap is now well above any reasonable valuation of the company and is being driven along purely by hype and FOMO so when do the company decide to raise and when do PIs start taking profits (or, like me, lower losses) off the table? I suspect the company and most PIs are at least waiting until the ETF news breaks in the expectation that it will be positive. Longer term though this sp is just not sustainable and somebody has got to blink first. I already have, and will do so again if it gets to 30p.

Cheers HC - and a very Merry Christmas to you too! Signing off now for a few days :-)

I think cash breakeven is somewhere between $25k and $30k BTC. So anything above this would see their total cash position improve BEFORE buying any new machines, paying off any loans etc. So their cash position should already be improving but not nearly fast enough to make much difference and this figure will simply get higher of course unless they expand and then it will double with halving. Of course there is also the no small matter of loan maturities coming up.

“I’m talking a positive cash inflow for the group Hexam, not positive from a cash cost basis”.

Not sure what the difference is unless you mean after any debt repayments or new capital outlay?

Tbf HC Arb is already comfortably better than breakeven on a cash basis just not profitable yet or generating enough cash to make a serious dent in the debt pile or help the company to grow meaningfully.

“To say Bitcoin is useless is also a bit silly as well hex ?,”

I didn’t say it was.

True Plutuq but if gold didn’t look pretty and have a multitude of others uses then its value would be an awful lot lower than it is.

As for the notion (from a different poster) that fiat is useless that’s just silly. It may have its faults and some may think it is not fit for purpose but I find it useful just about every day - and I’m sure plenty of others do too including its detractors.

“However, that does not give you a complete picture. miners earn a lot from other activities specially during last few months.”

ARB earn nothing on top of the 145 BTC other than any credits when turning power off (in which case the BTC drops). That figure already includes the transaction fees and they have no other source of income that I’m aware of other than those credits when they aren’t mining.

I can’t see any way they can get to £1 before needing to dilute (to deal with loan commitments, buy machines etc.) bar BTC going absolutely beserk. They are still running at a loss (so P/R ratio is negative at the moment) and would need BTC to go up to at least $100k to make any profit post halving.

Never been called any sort of 'angel' before, negative or otherwise. Bless you.

A lie is not any less a lie by repeating it Suthy.