Member Info for Hexam

Not sure what the agenda will be from the 'trolls' this week but suspect it will be same again from the uber rampers - a deal is very close, lots of commentators are saying BTC is going to scale new heights and anybody that says anything at all negative in any post has an ulterior and nefarious motive (like wanting to get in cheap) and probably has multiple IDs.

There you go, saved you the trouble of looking at the board next week so you now have more time for other, more useful things. You're welcome :-)

(Of course all bets are off if there is any actual news as there will be something new and interesting to talk about.)

That's just silly. Firstly, I haven't mentioned it that often and even if I had I've clearly stated it is only my view. Nothing at all misleading about having a view even if that view is very different to your own.

"nothing 100% certain but you would have thought it would be damn close?"

No. As I've said before my own estimate is 5 to 10%. Just my view though and not trying to claim they are the actual odds - although they are much more consistent with where the sp sits than it being 'damn close'.

And as I've also suggested before, if you believe implicitly everything an AIM CEO tells you then more fool you - but your choice of course.

"I am repeating what FG has said not making it up."

I'm not saying you are making it up just that you cannot possibly be certain.

You are totally making up the bit about me being JezConnor though. More misleading comments from someone who claims they are never misleading.

You keep saying you don't write misleading posts Jambone but the one you've just written is hugely misleading. It suggests it is 100% certain that a product will be brought to market, that it will make it 2.6x more probable to mine a BTC block and that it won't be long now. None of that can be said with certainty especially the 2.6x as it has not been used yet to actually mine BTC as far as we know and to validate the claim it would have to be used on thousands of machines.

You keep posting opinion as if it is fact. Misleading.

Yeah, a discussion breaking out on a discussion forum. Weird eh?

Fair enough Plutuq. We just have a different view of what the ‘supply’ actually is. I think it is the number of existing coins and so increasing and you think it is the number of new coins only and so decreases at the halving.

As I said though I don’t think it matters as I think the price will go up anyway (but from the demand side).

…or is that the logic anyway behind what you are thinking of doing Chuz?

It could be a double-edged sword. If all the billions expected to go into these ETFs is new money to crypto then great - it’s a win all round for BTC, miners and shareholders.

If on the other hand a lot of it is simply diverted from people currently getting their exposure to BTC via shares (who don’t want the hassle of buying BTC directly or want to invest via an ISA/SIPP) then this could outweigh any buying pressure on miners’ shares from BTC rising. So almost paradoxically it could be great for miners but bad for its shareholders.

Just a thought.

I'm not sure it is like diamonds or gold really. We know already that there is fixed limit on the number of BTC i.e. 21m so a fixed total supply of which over 19.5m (93%) are already in circulation (less the 'lost' ones of course). The more that are mined the more there are in circulation just fewer 'newer' ones coming on to the market (and even less than the number mined as miners are moving back more towards HODL strategies). It's not like gold or diamonds though where many are used and more are needed for more usage (decoration or industrial or whatever) though of course some 'recycling' occurs.

I think the analogy would be better if diamonds, gold etc were only used as a store of value but they are not.

So in my view the supply of BTC is actually increasing as I see the supply as the total number that can be traded, not just the new ones being mined. HOWEVER that doesn't mean BTC won't rise further as halving approaches and after it occurs, in fact I believe it will, but I think it will simply be because it's more of self-fulfilling prophecy. It's happened before so people expect it to happen again and so will act on that belief and partly because, like you, they view that the supply decreasing is what is driving that.

You could say I'm just arguing semantics and perhaps I am as, perceived or actual, it doesn't matter however you interpret it but to my mind the parallel with precious metals and gems on a purely supply and demand basis is flawed.

The other 'unknown' is working capital movements. They took a big hit on these in Q3 due to a rise in trade receivables but hopefully there will be no big adverse movement in Q4 (maybe even a positive)?

Yeah HC, who wants to talk about the important stuff when there's plenty of vacous ramping to be getting on with?

Though for the record I think it is $8 to $10m less any capex or other one-offs.

There WILL be a raise. They cannot survive without one. Clear enough?

"No one is saying ARB will or won’t have a raise hexam. Except for you."

Well, I must admit the above beats me. No idea what you are saying there. Plenty have said there will be a raise, and I am one of them. And so it seems you are too? Don't recall anybody saying there won't be a raise. So not sure what point you are making, or why give the previous posts.

"You came in this chat and every post has had a negative take." - Lie

"Interested to hear people's balanced views." - Clearly not

"Hexam filter away" - Done, as you add absolutely no value and just seem to use this board as an outlet for your own anger

*Now :-)

Not you are just not making sense.

Yes debt is common in such businesses but in ARB's case it is overwhelming. Also some have very little debt (they rely more on equity raises). Still no articulation as to why ARB's fundamentals are not awful, just deflection. Case closed.

Warrie - every post you make just seems to be about 'trolls'. Anything at all to say about QBT or anything useful at all full stop? At least Jambone and Suthy also talk about QBT a lot. I rarely filter anybody but you and Chats are two peas in a pod and both make an excellent case for the use of the filter button.

None of what you have just said is related to ARB's fundamentals so I guess you do think they are awful after all? In fact you agree the sp is all about sentiment and EFT approval.

Although you do also say ARB are 'primed to take advantage of breakthroughs and new alliances[. In what way exactly? They have next to no HODL or cash but are saddled instead with plenty of debt. I can only think you are talking about QBT but even if their claims are true I don't see ARB at the front of the queue as a client given their much weaker position compared to other miners.