Well that's that16 Oct 2024 00:31
So despite world renowned geologists from across three continents stating that
Rukwa hosts independently verified (SRK-2020) Best-Estimate Unrisked Prospective Recoverable Helium Resource (2U/P50) of 138Bcf, making it the largest known primary helium resource in the world, with Helium concentrations up to 10.2%, representing incredible high grades compared to typical values of under 1%, and being the largest active rift system with absolutely perfect geology, along of course two companies, as well as the Department of Geology at University Dar es Salaam who all state they think they have discovered massive commercial finds of 'global significance', a particular trader called HappyDazes who happens to be out of the share at the moment says there is no commercial discovery, and there never will be, so I suppose that's that then. I'm guessing he's a world renowned geologist as well? Or is he just a trader, and a really poor impression of one?
Well let's see. Rukwa does appear to be highly commercial, even by Nobles figures. Like HE1 they believe multiple wells will be drilled with each producing hundreds of cubic feet of helium (and like Helium One hydrogen as well). From their shallow drilling their worst estimate just on drilling to date is a P90 figure of 5.4 Bcf, increasing to a P50 of 29.1 Bcf. And, just from their shallow drilling are forecasting revenues of A$700m per annum or £359m per annum, or £3.59 BILLION pounds over the initial licence period. And that's a minimum figure.
Now I've compared all historical reports and CPRs from both companies and to me it's highly likely Helium One will have double the amount of Helium (and hydrogen) that Noble has, so I'm thinking it's BIG. Very big and very valuable. Most sensible people know offtake partners, majors who are multi billion dollar companies, will almost certainly fund all the infrastructure, including the plant production costs, in return for discounted helium to recoup their outlay over time. Every single discovery I have seen uses this model, and in order to be chosen its common they throw in many million dollars as working capital for appraisal and development work.
So there's me thinking the market cap of a company like Helium One could and should be £500-700m in the medium term, 4.5-7p maybe. But I'm torn as this particular trader is really saying I should sell, well at least until he's back in.
I'll let you all make your own decision, just my thoughts..well mine and any geologists across the globe.