Current situation20 Sep 2024 11:28
With no meaningful stats or Feasibility Study published, coupled with the surprise raise for the BlueStar farm in I am one of many finding themselves heavily underwater at the moment. But this is not the time for emotion, it's the time for clear thinking and deciding whether to take losses on the chin or to tough it out.
My thinking is this. The BlueStar deal should be rubber stamped by the authorities next week and the first of 6 development wells to be drilled will begin immediately after approval.
I look at the Galactica-Pegasus project and compare it to the potential at Rukwa. Facts I know, the Galactica-Pegasus project is 675 Mcf.
I know that the licence is 5 years, Rukwa is 10.
I know concentration levels average 3%, Rukwa is over 5.
I know flow rates are 3 times more for Rukwa than Galactica-Pegasus.
I also know prices are far higher for Helium in Asia than the states, and I obviously know that Galactica-Pegasus is a commercially viable project.
My conclusions are that Rukwa is likely to hold at least three times more helium than Galactica-Pegasus at approximately three times the price, so my guess is at least 1.9 Bcf, which will be worth well over one billion dollars, equating to $100 per annum for each of the ten years, which in turn would give a minimum Mcap of £500-600m and a SP of 4-6p, probably a lot higher.
It's only a guess but enough for me to hold during Q4 to see if I'm right.