Member Info for HelloSanDiego

If Wikipedia's up to date and correct, Solenta holds just under 60% of this company's shares. Three other investors owns 5, 5, and 20% each. So is it a foregone conclusion the 75% vote will be in favour of cancellation?

Everything I've seen suggests they won the Gibraltar contract in February last year. But as of September the work hadn't actually begun because of political delays out there. I haven't read every RNS that's been out since then. But I've looked at their last report and searched for any articles about the project. So I'm not sure how I've missed anything.

"As far as one can reasonably ascertain..."

True. But a number of companies are working on it, and when one achieves it MWG are well positioned to provide the technology to actually put it into use.

Is that $4bn just a random number you chose, or is it based on any price estimates, manufacture costs, distribution costs etc that are available?

I think 1-1.5bn is a plausible takeover value, based on prices I've seen for intereron and the expected number of doses required in the next few years. That would make around £10 per share.

The difference here is that back in April we knew it would be months before any major developments (i.e. results being announced), whereas this time around we could get news of approval or even takeover at any time.

ChrisToffer - This doesn't even have a name. Besides, I think Richard Marsden said Synairgen couldn't handle distribution themselves, so I think they're still weeks or months away from getting this to patients. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if it isn't approved this week or even next.

Remdesivir was already manufactured and ready to go. So don't count on there being quite so much urgency here, necessarily.

That's the down side though, as I see it. If the only value here is in Iclaprim, that means two possible outcomes for Hercules: 1) Gain ownership of Iclaprim, or 2) Spend half a million on a 20% stake in a company that owns Iclaprim (and, possibly, little else). In which case it possibly does come down to what deals are made behind closed doors.

I don't think it's a coincidence that its price has hovered around the same price as the Hercules warrants though, fwiw. But the reason for that also looks unclear.

Didn't (3) already happen? I thought the Hercules debt was written off in exchange for the option to buy 125m shares at 0.42p. I also wondered if that might be how the buyer could get enough remaining shares to put them over the 50%.

I also thought that the assets guaranteed in the 'perfected security' arrangement only reverted to Hercules in the event that Motif end up bankrupt. I'm completely unsure about any of this though. I'm not an expert.

Mark@1973: I've noticed that. It seems to have been the same things repeated over and over all day for the past month, a little speculation, some opinion but mostly trolling.

I know some of the developments have been a little vague, such as the MR04 notification from a couple of weeks ago and exactly what it exactly to. But since you seem to have researched this more than most people on here, I have a question about the RTO process that you might be able to answer. If an RTO simply involves a bidding company acquiring a majority stake, how could they go about doing that if the shares are suspended? Is that possible, or are we just betting on somebody acquiring them before suspension next week?

There's plenty to talk about. We could list all the possible outcomes and discuss the diferent routes to each of them to try to weigh up the likelihood of each one. There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm to do that though.

Could someone with more experience in pharma stocks share a little insight on at what stage the larger companies move in with takeover offers? Phase 2, phase 3, approval or later?

Also, assuming the best case scenario, how quickly could regulatory approval be granted given the unusual circumstances? Weeks, potentially? Thanks.

If they can come up with a test to detect the virus before people are symptomatic, I can see how that could make a big difference to the cruise industry.

I wonder if there's really much benefit to having these systems installed for Covid detection. Water treatment sites have been manually testing since forever and I don't see how they would have much to gain from having a machine do it, when you weigh up the additional cost and need for maintanance. It's a completely different scenario from an industrial plant that needs to continually test its output to ensure toxins aren't escaping, which I believe is what these systems are designed for.

I still think this company has potential and is a world leader in what it does. But jumping on the Covid bandwagon seems like little more than a marketing gimmick to me. It might be one that politicians are happy to jump onto, but still.

I just had a quick look and an NHS website states that the previous trials "indicated that SNG001 was well tolerated during virus infections and provided significant lung function benefit for asthma patients", and the trial specified that participants had to be taking "regular inhaled corticosteroids". I'm no expert, but it sounds to me like it's not an issue.

Can anyone briefly explain how an RTO could actually be carried out if the shares are suspended? I was under the impression a bidder had to acquire a majority of shares and that's the takeover done. But if they aren't tradeable, are there other routes?

@Antonios - I think it'll be late this evening before the US gets hold of this news. I also think the company have planned it so that there's a string of positive announcements to come out of Synairgen in the following weeks. My opinion only, but I won't be selling today.

My mistake. I got this confused with another stock.

The RNS from a day or two ago said Acacia were out.

If this gets suspended and the shares weren't tradeable, what are the ways an RTO could actually be carried out?