Member Info for HelloSanDiego

"Government's Chief scientific adviser - The UK has 'turned a corner' and is on course for up to 50,000 new cases of Covid-19 per day by mid-October"

That's ten times as high as at the (current) height of the pandemic, in April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084

"On 7 August 2020, Motif BioSciences, Inc. received a notice from its lender Hercules Capital Inc. ('Hercules') as to their intention to foreclose on the collateral, of intellectual property of iclaprim."

That was from the September 1st RNS and is the clearest indication I've seen regarding the ownership of the Iclaprim IP. I think it makes it clear that as of August 7th it was still owned by Motif Bio. The Sandoz/Novartis patent is for a different form of the drug.

I've read that the 'intention to foreclosure' is a necessary technicality in order to ensure that the perfected security interest (i.e. Iclaprim) is actually awarded to them by the court in the event that the debtor (Motif) is declared bankrupt. I don't think there would be any point in trying to foreclose on an asset the debtor didn't even own.

I'm not a lawyer though, so don't believe a word I say.

"We will have to agree to disagree then...GL!"

This is one situation where I'd be happy to be proven wrong. But either way we'll know soon enough. GL.

"If we are talking T/O you cannot dismiss our potential for other diseases"

I'm not dismissing it. I'm explaining that that potential was valued at 6p per share at the start of the year. Without Covid it would now be at 30-60p assuming positive COPD results. On approval for that and asthma, I'd say around £2 to £2.50.

You think Covid safely adds £20 to that?

"the starting point should be the MC once they announced the start of the trials"

That's another theory. Then again, so is the $230m deal they had in place with Astra Zeneca a couple of years ago.

If we get a working vaccine next year and cheap, reliable, mass-produced test, how much do you think this will be worth for treating Covid going forwards? And what company would gamble billions on that?

£20/30 per share?

There's no chance they're going to make £3-5bn from Covid. That sort of money is realistic with approval to treat other lower respiratory tract viruses. But that's a long way off with substantial risk along the way. Anyone with any sense would be thrilled with £7 to £10 per share in the next 12 months. They were 6p at the start of the year.

"it won’t be any good to anyone if it were ready by mid next year"

I think it's safe to say people will still be suffering from the disease beyond next summer, so those people will benefit. It looks like I might have misunderstood re: manufacturing quantities, though. I thought scale-up was only now underway. But it's unclear from the latest interview whether that's the case.

I definitely think there are too many on here assuming that approval will be granted this year, though.

"they started to make it last March"

I know, but I haven't heard any mention of the quantity, and as it's been in trials for several years they must have been making it even earlier than that. But in last week's interview Richard said they were currently dealing with scale-up.

My thinking is that with the cost of manufacture vs sale price and demand for it, they're willing to pay to manufacture so that there's plenty ready on approval. But I think that looks more likely to be next year.

There's a strong possibility that approval would do nothing to reduce infection rates. We've also got further trials underway and Richard Marsden said in last week's interview that there was a long lead-time for manufacture.

For those reasons among others, I don't think approval will be granted before early to mid 2021. The price could definitely go up in the meantime on news of a partnership or buyout, but it's not guaranteed.

"Come back when you have a better grasp on, well, everything !"

Ok, I'll try again. The case fatality rate of the 1957 flu was around 0.7%.

For covid 19, it's currently average at around 15 times higher. But yeah, snowflakes. Right.

"Do you guys even know that the 1957 flu was much more savage?"

That's incredible. It's almost as if people saw what went wrong and used that knowledge to reduce the damage this time around!

Here's a tweet by Steve-O from Jackass asking a leading cardiologist/famous doctor how SNG001 will help in the ongoing War on Covid.

https://twitter.com/seesthedanger/status/1302330015317594112

Btw I know nobody wants to call it that after how things turned out with the War on Drugs and the War on Terror, but we need to face facts now you guys.

Since inhaled Interferon beta isn't currently used it's difficult to estimate a price for it. But the injectable solution is around £150 per dose. If Synairgen were to receive £50 profit per dose, the millions of doses that Richard Marsden's talking about producing before the end of the year would earn them £150m, assuming 3 million doses for this year. Next year is anybody's guess.

My opinion is that £7 to £10 per share is reasonable in the short-term if approval is granted. But if it proves effective for other illnesses it could be worth several times that in the longer term.

"HelloSan... with everything as it is now? You are talking absolute rubbish ...!!"

It's not the most persuasive arguement I've heard, but you're entitled to your opinion. Time will tell who's right.

I was under the impression the paper hadn't been published yet, so peer review still looks to be some way off. And I'd bet good money that EUA isn't days away. I'm hopeful it will happen before Christmas, but that's definitely not guaranteed.

"with the RNS landing on Monday morning"

I'd say there's zero chance of an approval or partnership/takeover RNS arriving on Monday. Judging by RM's comments in this week's interview, I'm hoping for something significant next month. But even that's far from certain.

"Thank you"

No problem. I was concerned that their rise might be a response to Synairgen's RNS this morning, so I thought it was worth a look.

"They will more likely to be jumping all over verona an all American company doing similar things to sng"

Their headquarters is in London and they've been on the London Stock Exchange over ten years before they listed on Nasdaq. Their registered office is in Cardiff. Also, they're not doing similar things to Synairgen. Their drug is a bronchodilator. It's comparable to the blue inhalers asthmatics use. It could be of benefit to people with lung conditions, but it's not an anti-viral so it's not Covid-related.

"Can anyone more informed please explain why the primary completion date is set for Feb 2021 and trial end date may 2021?"

It takes time to find the required number of patients that fit the criteria who are willing to participate. The end of February 2021 is less than six months away and there'll be disruption caused by Christmas and Thanksgiving, among other holidays. I'm sure they'll do what they can to get it completed as quickly as possible.

"Approximately 5x. Could that mean a deal could value 5x 0.5p so 2.5p?"

It was $18m (which could potentially change after being reviewed), so at the current exchange rate it's more like £13.5m. But the listing itself also has a value of around £0.5m and the company currently has $0.8m cash iirc. Hercules Capital has warrants over (what would become) 20% of the company, which would raise another £750k or thereabouts, while diluting the share price. But then there's the $7.3m debt that needs repaying from the proceeds of Iclaprim, and the staff need paying too. So imho the shares will be worth somewhere between 0p and 5p each in the near future, maybe more in a year or two. I really don't think it's worth us trying to estimate a value tbh.