Member Info for HedgeHogarth

In answer to misterbeck

I'm a long term holder of #HEMO

Was expecting a big re-rate in 2023; it did 250% in January 2023 but has returned to 2.3p. It received startegic investments in Q4 and on taregt to start clincial trials very soon. 3 cataylsts in Jan/Feb - (1) Lifting of FDA clincial Hold + start human trials (2) Results due on their 2nd clincial candidate "CBR" which has inViro proof of Concepr to cure pretty much all known viruses to man and (3) Startegic funding - they will need more cash this year as they embark on trials - they received $880k from a new strategic investor in Q4 following extensive due dilliegnce at a +200% premium to share price

I buld a decent position in both XPF and MMAG in Q4

XPF are growing rapidly in an exciting, rapidly grwoing market. Happy customers, happy employees and based on lots of insight on LinkedIn seemingly absolutely smashed their targets in H2.

MMAG is a recovery play - SP has been hugely beaten up but I believe that a very successful business lies beneath the fear. They came under pressue in H2 due to their net debt and high interest rates. In a nice suprise they reduced debt in H2, showed decent H2 EBITA growth and saw string growth in Consumer tech which is increasingly the dominant part of their business, Deloite are working with them to find a buyer - over 90% share are with Private Equity, IIs and Founders. I'm looking for 200% on this recovery play.

All are high risk - but equally all are potentially very high rewards. That's the way i roll right now

More great signs of success from LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/elisha-khan_uk-dubai-activity-7147661165433692161-ieyC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

£50m feels light given the growth and progress I expect the to evidence in their January Trading update.

If they can demonstarte its scalability, pace of growth and improved profitability - there is no reason why this wont be closer to £100m by the end of FY24

Good question Misterbeck.

Right now I'm fully invested in other things now.

I think we will see ARB do well today and maybe other days this week

But i still have the same underlying concerns around the "halving event" and whether ARB are big enough, efficient enough and smart enough to survive and thrive. They will almost certainly need to raise in Q1

SO - I do think there will be a pull back at some point - but not before it hits a new 12mth high.

If it got to 40p or higer it could raise decent money that will be materially increase there chances of thriving in 2024 and beyond - and at the same time limt the number of new shares that need to be issues, reducing dilution.

I wll stay out on the way up - but I may go short again if i can time it correctly ahead of the raise.

I expected Hemo CAR-T to enter trials in FY23 - but that is history now.

I now as certain as I can be that Hemo CAR-T will enter trials - and hopefully in the near future with Prevail ready and waiting to lead on the trials. The patient selection will be critical - I imagine Hemo will want to target patients who have run out of any other clincial options (so have probably already had several treatments) but retain the strength and no side issues that would affect theire response to CAR-T.

There has been an imbalance of noise in respect of the dafety of CAR-T. Hemo CAR-T is designed to help the most needy, terminally ill patients in the first instance who have extremely poor clincial outcomes today, For many there is little or no further clincal routes to tacke. Here's a couple of articles that discuss the safety of CAR-T in cancers:

https://communitynewspapers.com/coral-gables-news/study-car-t-cell-therapy-safe-and-effective-even-for-high-risk-patients/

And sentiment is increasingly bullish on Biotech and CAR-T specifically in 2024

https://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=208885

Good luck everyone :-)

Good luck Accountant - I absolutely agree with you

Ironcially - the outcome here will be driven by accountants; the underlying business IMO is strong with an experienced and highly motivated team, a loved brand and a strong growth in Consumer Tech revenues

However - managing the debt down, meeting bank covenants and managing the business to improe EBITDA (absolute and %) are key.

It give me confidence that the CFO is their newest addition to the leadership team having joined in FY22. He brought his experience of working as a CFO (and other roles) in small businesses.

The ownership structure is not yet clear for 2024 - we start the year as we started the last one but it will be interesting to see the next update on the startegic process to find a suitable buyer of the business.

The Good signs for me coming into 2024 are:

- Momentum in Consumer tech from H2 2023 (and its contribution to EBITDA growth)

- Over 90% Shares still with Founders, Privtae Equity and IIs

- Opportunity to drive the performance of Kiosk Network harder in 2024

- Strong likeliehood that interest rates will decline quickly from Q2 onwards

- Improved Consumer Confidence

- Outlook for Android resale values looks encouraging; Samsung S24 launch not revloutionary which will help retain value in S22/S23 models

- And most importantly - the share price is at a 'battered and bruised' 11p valuing the business at liitle over £10m. That significantly undervalues the business that I see here - providign the company continues to manage the debt position in the short term ahead of lower interest rates later in the half.

Good luck to all holder - let's hope for a great year for MusicMagpie and the re-rate we hope for

Indeed it is and absolutely justifies my reasons to close the short position I took between Christmas and New Year.

Im going to remain on the sidelines

But a big, genuine good luck to all shareholders. Just woke up to see BTC at 45k and looking bullish. I imagine that will send ARB to a 12m high today.

Great shout Blastoid - done

Said poster has blocked me on Twitter because they don’t like the truth - the irony

Here’s to a peaceful and 2024 - good luck everyone

Hemotruth - no, that is not what i said. And I have not been 'pumping'

I still have over 50% of my portfolio in Hemo and remain as happy and optimistic as I ever have

Howvever, as per my post below, I understad that the weight og Hemo in my portfolio was too high; It's still too high in theory, but at least now I have spread risks a small bit

You are very bitter individual; sadly, you offer little or no value to this bulletin board. I'm not sure why you are here tbh and dont really care. My guess is you simply are not capable of providing a valuable contribution

I've not seen it HT

I wil take a look now

Really liking the recent tone of the forum.

At times, the bears and trolls have made this a difficult forum to engage with - which is pretty rubbish when you are a LTHer and want to discuss the risks and opportunities

I remain heavily invested in Hemogenyx - although not as much as I was 12 months ago. I'd become too overweight in Hemo and needed to better balance my portfolio. I may see if I can free up some funds in the week - as we must be so close to clincial trials now; we've not heard anything for 5 weeks.

Lessons to Learnt in 2023

Despite trying to set my own 'realistic' expectatons around timelines and progress - everything tends to take that little longer. I understand that it is imperative that things are done correctly and to a standard that maximises the probability of success in trials.

There is a great team at Hemogenyx; they will be working incredibly hard to deliver the objectives and outcomes agreed with their line manager and Vlad. They will barely think about shareholders and nor should they - we have to trust the team that they are doing everything they can to bring success.

An Ask of the Bears / Trolls

If/when we get the news we all hope for (e.g. Clincial Hold lifted, FDA approve revised IND, clincial trials starts, further strategic funding) this will represent genuine, tangible progress which should increase the valuation of Hemo as a business.

I will make a promise - I will happily engage and support any member on here that wants to make a case for the share being a 'buy' or 'sell'. All i ask is that members be genuine, stick to the facts, be respectful and recognise any counter points.

Lets make this a great BB - an example to others. I recently has a go at taking a short position on ARB - I made somedecent money and posted a fair bit on the ARB board. I happily shared the position I'd taken, and backed up with facts and fundamentals for why I felt the share was overvalued.

Agree - I spotted the cash. But felt that it was still a useful and relevent share.

I don't expect there will be many sharedholders that would say no to a deal in the next 12mth for half the £1.2Bn

SP today 2.3p

SP if bought for £600m = 51p

Thanks for the kind words Guiness25.

Hope you enjoy the NY celebrations and have a very happy new year.

It feels like we are due a good year as Hemo shareholders. The science is on track - the lentivirus splicing being the one scientific blip in 3 years.

As much as it pains be to say it, i guess you are right that holding 2p was a good thing. tbh, nothing would have surprised me having seen such volatility here - the market seemingly has not yet woken up to the opportunity here. Yes, it is not without risk, but all that risk and more is already in the share price.

The minute we see either 'significant new investment' or a attempt to acquire 'Hemo' the true underlying value of this business will be revealed.

People have mockd some of the valuations that JHFH and others have put on this business. But check out the link below - AstraZeneca has just bought Gracell Biotechnologies for £1.2bn - Hemo are not that different and only a little behind the stage at which Gracell are right now

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/astrazeneca-buys-chinese-car-t-biotech-gracell-in-a-1-2bn-deal/?cf-view

https://www.gracellbio.com/pipeline/

The ONLY people who are in trouble here are those who had a short position ahead of the absolutely sparkling RNS that landed by surprise pre Christmas. Who needs Santa Claus :-)

I think anyone who bought at 0.6p will be rewarded - they just need to be patient

I expect this stock to get a lot of interest in the new year as we embark on a bullish 2024. It will represent a real 'comeback' for some of the battered small stocks on AIM and FTSE.

Contrary to the posts below - £3m will actually go a long way but more importantly the hurdles and distration have gone and paved the way for a mutually beneficial partnership going forwards to build on the £3m.

The business has survived a tricky few years - but has emerged intact with the best yet to come

Pretext - The SP of 17.5p is in line with the SP 1 year ago. Last year it then dipped a few pence before a +40% rise at the time of the Trading update.

January

- Further directors buying very likely

- Trading Update for the 12mth to Dec 31st expected w/c 22 Jan (I'm expecting stellar results)

March

- Results for the 12mth to 31 Dec (but with year end changing, the full results will not be formally out til Q3 as it will be a one-off 15mth FY)

Looking forward to seeing their growth plans for FY23 - I know they are keen to maintain their tradjectory of growth

The quick answer to this is a firm, 100% "no"

The slightly longer one is:

1 - there is no 'hold up' with the FDA

2 - Hemo CAR-T was put on clincial hold within the FDA stated timelines. The reason for the hold was clearly stataed by the company: it was a single issue they needed to resolve with splicing of the lentivirus

3. - We do not currently know what stage Hemo are at - We know the lentivirus has been remanufcatured to address the clincial hold and in the hands of Hemo. We do no know yet whether IND has been submitted to FDA

4. The issue you have linked to is well known in scientific circles. Hemo's partner "Penn" raised the issue years

5. The FDA are not stpping the use of CAR-T - they are just making sure that consultants and patiens are aware of risk.

6. Hemo are targeting a disease in which the patients are seriously and mostly terminally ill. The risk of side affects is hugely outweighed by the therapeutic success of CAR-T

Very impressive Pumky :-)

I make it £18.98m raised post IPO (on top of +£10m raised as part of admission) at a blended rate of 2.34p (which happens to be the cuurn SP!)

That breaks down as follows:

£10.4m - Mint @avg of 1.9p

£8.58 m - Other @avg of 3.15p

Worth noting that £3.9m of the Mint funding was at an average of 3.7p

The remaining £6.5m was at 1.5p as part of the unplanned premature closing of the facility

Happy New Year everyone

Here's a toast to a 'positive and juicy' RNS from Hemo early in th enew year :-)

Good luck everyone and Happy New Year

Agree growthinvestor

Since the Brexit debate - very few people are prepared to have a meaningful well mannered debate and be prepared to change their view

I am NOT one of them.

I agree with Ian Gibbins and that is why I took the position - However, being new to shorting I probably lacked the convinction and the funds to play a 'fiver setter' so i tooks som profit and ran.

This is partly due to reading some of the posts on here - whilst the numbers were on my side, their is no accounting for hype and momentum .

Bitcoin is likely to be pretty volatile in the next few weeks / months. It's hard to say how that will play out on ARB - a lot will depend on the timing of its raise

LOL @Bigyellowpig

Let's revisit this converstaing in a few weeks time shall we? ;-)

As for ARB - my position is now fully closed and I will leave you all alone

hasta la vista