Member Info for HedgeHogarth

Talking of "buy out" news we have a potential Contender enter the fray

TR1 just RNS showing a new 1% shareholding

Regardless of whether he is or isnt interested in bidding - he's an experienced executive running small businesses and expert in Consumer Tech....

Check him out here

https://theorg.com/org/mission-labs-1/org-chart/damian-hanson

and here

https://www.uktech.news/news/founder-interviews/circleloop-founder-damian-hanson-20231117

Major Shareholders Summary

Insititutional Investors Up to 40-45%

Schroder Investment Management: 12.5%

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Group Limited: 4.6%

abrdn Alternative Investments Ltd: 4.5%

Puma Investment Management Limited: 2.5%

Premier Fund Managers Ltd: 1.3%

Oasis Management Company: 1.2%

Rathbones - 2%

Premier Miton Group: 1.1%

Bank Julius Bär & Co Ltd., Asset Management Arm: 0.9%

Close Asset Management Ltd: 0.8%

HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited: 0.7%

Founders, Directors and Employees @31%

Steve Oliver: 11.25%

Walter Gleeson: 9%

musicMagpie Employee Benefit Trust: 8.5%

Martin Hellawell: 0.9%

Ian Storey: 0.8%

Matthew Fowler: 0.2%

Private Equity @ 15%

Northern Entities: 14.5%

Public Hands - 11-12%

Major Shareholders Summary

Insititutional Investors Up to 40-45%

Schroder Investment Management: 12.5%

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Group Limited: 4.6%

abrdn Alternative Investments Ltd: 4.5%

Puma Investment Management Limited: 2.5%

Premier Fund Managers Ltd: 1.3%

Oasis Management Company: 1.2%

Rathbones - 2%

Premier Miton Group: 1.1%

Bank Julius Bär & Co Ltd., Asset Management Arm: 0.9%

Close Asset Management Ltd: 0.8%

HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited: 0.7%

Founders, Directors and Employees @31%

Steve Oliver: 11.25%

Walter Gleeson: 9%

musicMagpie Employee Benefit Trust: 8.5%

Martin Hellawell: 0.9%

Ian Storey: 0.8%

Matthew Fowler: 0.2%

Private Equity @ 15%

Northern Entities: 14.5%

Public Hands - 11-12%

Josey

I was refering to the definition and data in the attached link

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMAG.L/key-statistics/

Yoi are correct about the 7m Cannacord shares sold - they add to the c54m oublic float - However, I did not want to move into the realms of assumptions - I do not beleive 'the public' snapped up 7m shares from Cannacord"

Do you?

Which is why I do think there is more than meets the eye on the Cannacors disposals. I do not beleive in co-incidences and I don't beleive an 'elite fund management team" would oversee thei £24m investments reeduce to £2m over 2 years and then suddenly dump them during a MMAG strategic review.

The question we do not know is where have most of those 7m shares have gone - possibly nearer 9m by the time we get their next Form 8.3

I have heard lots of positive things here - but It is not clear what the business case is, or why those think this is undervalued

It has £30 mCAP

Currently not profitable

£11m Revenue in 2023 - (up from £10m in FY22)

It expects to delivere FY24 revenue of £14-£17m - It is good growth but not exactly exponential growth that would justify a huge valuation. Perhaps it will turn over a profit if it delivers to the top end of that range.

I'm not trying to be nagative - I'm keen to understand what makes people think it is undervalued. Is it speculation about a take-over or a commercial deal?

So Cannoacord sold enough to provide the liquidity on Friday

This left them with a nice round '5m' shares - so a small possibility they stop there

However, my expectation is they continued to sell yesterday - given all the buying where else would the shares have come from?

So maybe we see another RNS from them to show they are down to 2-3m

Imagine what the share price would have done on Friday if it had not been for 2m sold by Cannacord

Yesterday we moved up - and we will find out today whether there was further big selling b Cannacord.

Either way, they will sooon and run out and with such a small floar - it's no wonder the charts suggest a return to 22p. Could be a second big successful call of the year by Zak!

But forget the chart, I'm here for the fundamentals. I repeat: THIS IS NOT A BROKEN BUSINESS. This is a growing market with and when you strip out the misleading IFRS15 lease treatment and consider than interest rate will improve in 2024 - you have a profitable business here more than capable of complying with Bank Covenants. There are clearer some players that was to spread fear, but MMAG have traded successfully for 17 years and survived the toughest 2 years that UK businesses have ever had to endure.

GLA

Please DYOR

I imagine there are 'short positions' if not shorts

Why else would there have been a few trolls on here until yesterday

Why would TW be sayinghe has be contacted by 'spooked' lemmings?

However, they wont be particularly big or significant

A quick move to 20-22p

Of course we could hear from MMAG anytime on news of a bidder or perhaps an equally compelling strategic solution.

Good luck everyone

Remember - however hard people try to throw stones at this compnay - 95% shares are in the hands of people who know a lot more than the people throwing stones.

Shorting buffoon Tom Winnifrith wrote today: "I have been contacted by a couple of readers spooked by the musicMagpie (MMAG) share price climbing by almost 20% today to 12.75p

This is a man who's hero is Kelvin MacKenzie - He is no oracle - he just has a few sun readers who beleive his BS

If these shorters were 'spooked' at 12.5p I imagine their sheets were soiled at the point at which 15p was paid today.

There were a few comments that followed the TW update. Even his community are scepitical that MMAG is the basked case TW wants to make out.

MMAG is a loved and trusted brand:

- it has just delivered strong YOY EBITDA growth

- it deliever +7.5% H2 Revenue Growth in Consumer Tech - which will account for more than 80% of their business in 2024

- they have the catalysts and drivers of further grwoth in 2024

- They have survived and emerged from a difficult 2 years in which postal strikes and high interest rates hurt them

- When under pressure in H2 they proved to the market that they can deliver EBITA growth - whilst at the same time reducing net debt and staying comfortably within bank covenants

- the TW arguent is that the Banks will force a sale - but this 'ber case' was fabricated BEFORE (1) the 'stronger than expected' H2/FY tradin update and BEFORE the brighter outlook for FY24 interest rates.

TW started focusing on MMAG back in March 2022, continuting to 'tip' it as a shorting opportunity until 5th Oct 2022

It hit a mid day low of 8.9p on 25th September and did not change his 'tip' until 5th Oct. In the 'in between the share price rallied from 8.9p to 15.7p - no doubt causing some pain to thos shorting it. Ironically, the SP did head back below 10p for up to 12 days after his "tip" to avoid. Anyway the share price then rallied from sub 10p to 46p.

12mths on it looks like history is repreating itself - bouncing off the 10p low.

With only 5% free float and the rest of the shares in the hands of Private Equity (15%) , Founders and EMployees (30%) and Insitutions (50%) - I don't believe the SP here is going to be influeneced by a few Private Investors. I happily built my modest between 11p and 19p.

MMAG is very much alive and kicking, it's compliant with bank covenants, it has demonstarted growth it is startegic Consumer tech category and has contracted revenues already in the bag with over 30k customers on 1 year contracts.

The company WILL have a number of potential strategic options - It's Private Equity partners and Institutional Investors are barely blinked - having chosen to hold after the last big move from 10p to 46p. There have been a few small disposals - but I firmly beleive there is more to it than meets the eye. Why would Cannacord have waited until a Bid Window when the SP was close to its 'all Time low' to take a 95% loss.

For me, there is a BIG tick here from a fundamentals perspective whilst share price is sub 25p and the Chartists seem to like the chart a lot too and calling a quick move

WHy would they be Closing Only PBBtrade - is it down to the size of positon they already have or something else?

PBBTRADE99 - I was able to get a Long position at 2.16p between xmas and NY :-)

An RNS could drop an any time as well - nothing has been shared for almost 1 month on the process

It looks like the 10% gang have had their fun - I think and hope they will live to regret getting off the bus at the first stop. I'm taking up the whole back seat and will stay there until the the bus is back in the depot and they physically have to remove me

Something strange was going on - I tried to see if I could increase my LONG position with spreadex - but they would not and could not :-(

Laughable de-ramping

don't get caught in a beartrap!

The SP has a bad few hours and Mr Jinx thinks that means he was correct in thinking the company were experiencing issues

Quite frankly, laughable. I think you will find the drop was down to some ill placed shorting or ill advised selling - NOTHING TO DO WITH HEMOGENYX!

The profit figure is impacted adversly by 23things which is why I prefer EBITDA.

(I have worked in Corporates for over 25 years and always used EBITDA as its a much cleaner measure of the profit in year)

- Amortisation related to rental Assets - timing on rental revenue - assets sitting on balance sheet and >£3m contracted recurring revenue already secured for FY23/24

- Amortisation of increased in IT investment in recent year (already boght and paid for)

- Interest on RCF - 2023 saw the peak of interest rates - this will improve going forward and not be an issue for an ccquiring compnay with deep pockets and/or a as a bigger entity would be able to secure a much more prefential rate with the banks

I'm an accountant and I can assure you that by the time you apply IFRS16 and IFRS15 the profit number is not a very realistic benchmark for profit - the accountant royalty who makes the rules are known for making a dogs dinner of things

They are growing EBITDA back to the levels pre-IPO and with interest rates coming down they will also reduce financing costs.

The business they are in is EXACTLY the same as that of ecoATM who, as shared earlier, were acquired for $350 and have secured $325m additional investment in the last 4 years. You don't see people part with those sums id the recommerce of Consumer Tech is not profitable

Re-commerce as a broader category is booming in the UK

Generations Z and Alpha are big fans of recommerce using the likes of Vinted for their clothes and buying all sorts of things on local marketplaces and Facebook.

Apple and all the majort UK MNOs are big advocates of selling refurbished phones - they cannot get enough of them.

GLA

Oh - and the free float is only about 5-6% of Shares-issued - about 50-60m shares

c30% sit with Founders and Employees

c15% with their original pre IPO Private Equity Investor

Up to 50% with 6-8 Institutional Investors - 2 of which are from speciialist institutions not based in the UK

300 strong UK network of 'Smartdrop' self serve Kiosks (These help MMAG capture 45% of its Consumer Tech which it then refurbs and sells for a profit in 11 days on average)

35k Base of Customers on recurring Rental Prop - >£3m contracted revenue and £multi-millions tied up in rental assets that will come back to MMAG for them to sell on again

2 Brands - They also have US operation : DeCluttr . Not yet fulfilled its potential but recently signed deal with Walmart

End to End circular economy operation - IT and Infrastructure to optimise (1) sourcing tech through website and kiosks, then (2) Recycle, Refurb and Security Wipe operation and capability, the (3) Warehouseing and then (4) Own website and multipiple partnerships with the likes of Apple, Amazon, Ebay, Tiktok, Backmarket

Trusted, popular brand

MusicMagpie - traded successfully in the UK for 17 years

Music Magpie has a Trustpilot rating of 4.4 in the UK (from more than 250k customer reviews)

Music Magpie are the world’s #1 seller on eBay & Amazon based on highest number of seller reviews

Music Magpie is award winning and has great reputation and links with 'key players in the industry.' It pretty much has cleaned up in 2023 dominating it's category....

- Best Recycling Service at the "What Mobile Awards" 7 years running

- Best Online Retailer AND Best Secondary Market Provider at the Mobile News Awards 2023.

- Best Refurbish Company at the Uswitch Telecoms Awards 2023.

And recently winning "Best Recycle Service" in the prestigious Mobile Industry Awards 2023

They have a £30m RBF of which they have drawn down about 50% to fund working capital for the Rental Proposition. Growth would have been greater in 2023 - but the terms of the loan have hampered their ability to grow quicker. That is why they will benefit from new owernership