Member Info for HedgeHogarth

Please ignore the ‘tenses’ (bloody spellcheck on phone)

Good luck to all, whether you are long, short or just right :-)

And always have an exit strategy

So much rubbish posted on here in the last 24hrs

The bottom line remains the same here. Hemo are on the verge of going clinical. As many in here may recall, I suspected the clinical hold would not be lifted in December. Based on last RNS, I suspected it may land early in the new year.

Nothing has changed in my view.

An RNS must surely land soon with an update.

GLA

Thanks to those members who have shares their thoughts and addresses some of my points.

All my posts are in good faith and are correct to the best of my ability.

@clskbull. You are correct, my post should have said that argo is one of only 3 of the biggest 17! Showing gains in last 24 hrs. See link

https://companiesmarketcap.com/bitcoin-mining/largest-bitcoin-mining-companies-by-marketcap/

Hexam - if my comparison on direct costs is not correct and I’m not comparing apples with apples then please accept my apologies for any confusion

I watched an interesting update tonight on the bitcoin miners. It compares and contrasts some of the relative moves. Worth a watch….

https://youtu.be/RuxtYUkr0hI?si=UOrMYMvxGSYJzl51

The two things that convince me most here is the need to raise Cash in the short term. And the fact that the mCap has increased exponentially in such a short space of time. If is now at a level that looks unrealistic for a company with $70m debt and unlikely to be cash accretive in Q4. Despite the 150% yrs increase in bitcoin value. Finally, the upcoming halving event IMO will spell the end for the weaker miners. Time will tell who they are. To survive, Argos best chance is to raise money while SP is at this level. It could raise £20-40m now and hep secure its future

Let’s see what the next few sessions bring. I may have called this wrong but I’m still in the money right now so contrary to one poster’s observations I have not lost any money.

It does not have to be a short term trade

I may want to hold it all the way down to say 15p. That may be 1 day or 10 days - who knows.

If I am proved right about ARB using this as an opportunity to raise - it could moved down very quickly

Rarely, its a weakness of mine that I'm very aware of

Would you like to hazard a guess at whether the 1m transaction at 16:37 today is a buy or a sell?

It is a big one!

@jimiimi

Hence my point; the numbers you are referencing are not an accurate indicator of what has been bought and what has been sold. The buys represent the trades at a price which are mathematically closer to the "ask" and the sells are trades at a price mathematically closer to the "Bid"

The reality is that the buys and sells will always be very similar across the day. A buyer needs a seller and vice versa

GordonBennet - enjoy! and I'll pass on your wife's vaseline

I'm watching a few things....

(1) The Bitcoin price - down 2% today. Chart showing a double top which is a bearish sign which seems to be reflected in what looks like a bearish pattern in the last week. I think we may see $38k before we see $50k

(2) I'm interested in the mismatch between Argo and some key benchmarks:

(a) Of the 17 biggest publicly quoted Bitcoin miners 14 of them are showing share price decline over 30 days. Argo is the outlier

(b) Bitcoin is up 150% YTD, Argo is up +300% - i expect to see a correction shortly

(c) The ARB cash balance - $18m spent Jan-Sept. Only $8m remaining in the bank as of 30th Sept, It is now 3mth later and the $8m is almost certainly sub $5m now. So i expect the company to raise money sooner rather than later

These are all 100% factual with the exception of their Q4 cashburn which is my best estimate - it could be better or worse than my estimate

Jimiimi

You sound like you are very green

(1) You cannot possibly know that more were sold than bought today

(2) Thinking ahead is what investors should be doing - I'm not unique

But it sounds like you are happy with the late comeback.

Mysteryguy - sadly you seem to have misunderstood the halving event due.

Argo are a minnow in the Bitcoing mining world - saddled with debt, and on target to make a loss of $30m in FY23

The halving will cut block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins, doubling mining costs per bitcoin. Miners are mitigating this by adopting more efficient machines and optimizing energy use, building cash reserves, and hedging market risks.

Currently, publicly listed miners mine at a cost of $10,000-$15,000 per bitcoin, said Wolfie Zhao, head of research at mining consultancy Blocksbridge. Once the halving happens, these costs will double, bringing miners’ breakeven point to $20,000-$30,000; Argo was $17k per bitcoin in Q2 and $11k in Q3 due to exceptionally high power credits (teh underlying cost excluding the $2.8m power credits was actually $18k)

Whilst Argo's cost per bitcoin may improve a bit - It is at the wrong end of the market range and if they remained at the Q3 performance inti FY24 - their cost per bitcoing could be as high as $36k vs 'best in class' @ £20k

Food for thought....laugahbale to think the halving event is good for miners

"So whilst they will hit a cash problem at some point, at the moment they look ok to me"

Hexam - you need to remove those "rose tinted specs"

They have burnt $18m between 1st Jan and 30th September.

They just burnt $6m in Q3 - this included the benefit from +£2.8m pwer credits and seemingly excluded the cost of the final demployment of new blockminer units.

They entered Q4 with $8m in the bank (having spent double that in 9mths). At best, if they held Q4 neutral, they don't have enough cash to fund 12mth operation and at worst they may have spend $4-5m and yrgently require cash.

Jimimi

If you think BTC goes to $60k - Argo will simply NOT make money

It's not making money now and when the mining yield halves in April - it will need the BTC price to be c$80m to stay as they are.

The increase in BTC on a minute by minute basis may excite some but I don't believe Argo are generating cash even with a bitcoin price that is 150% up YTD.

Thanks growthinvestor20

I will take your feedback and reduce my posts - I was genuniely seeking some debate; from my perspective I could not be clearer about this share's true value. I was keen to hear other's opinions to challenge and perhaps counter my research. But all i really heard was (1) Hype (2) Crazy 10 and 20 bag predictions and (3) people expecting a rinse and repeat of 2021. (but sadly, the company is in a very different position now)

It's paying £10m in interest payments a year (significant increase in debt)

It has sold its biggest facility

Facing a Bitcoin Halving event that is a genuine threat

Oh and there are an additional c230m shares in issue vs the startt of 2021 - That's a 73% increase

Thanks Hexam. (I had considered your point on Bitcoin Value)

"BTC is a lot higher than it was in Q3"

Correct - about +20% increase. Based on this and Operational updates they should generate +$4m revenue in Q4. I expect this to be partially offset vs Q3 due to power credits received in Q3.

"and they are also benefiting from higher transaction fees"

Do you have a view of what this might deliver by way of additional revenue vs Q3?

They also completed the deployment of BlockMiner machines in September - based on standard terms I would expect this to negatively impact Q4 cash burn.

So I expect that they were not cash accretive in Q4 - I would estimate that perhaps they spend c$4m of the $8m left in the eban at the end of September

I'll be honest @growthinvestor20

I did my analysis on ARB and was quite frankly shocked at why the SP is so high. As i said earlier - I value this stock at 10p

So why am I here?

Two fold - (1) because i have taken a modest 'short position' on Spreadex at 31p this morning and (2) because I have done my homework and sharing it with others on here - and may help 1 or 2 avoid a loss here based on my analysis.

(99% of the time I only ever invest in long term positions and have had to endure so much negativity from those who have seemingly gone short - if you cant beat them, join them! esp. as my analayis valued company at nearer 10p.)

My analysis on Cash was actually undercalling the challenges here IMO

ARB reduced its debt in H2 when it sold Helios for $60m - but still brought $76m into FY23

I earlier posted that Cash Burn for the 9mth to Sept 30th FY23 was $12m (Taking the balance at 31st Dec and 30th Sept). What i failed to included was the additional $6m that Argo raised at 10p a share in July

So cash burn has been $2m a month in FY23. With an $8m balance as at 30 Sept, there must be a real danger that cash is dangerously low now (3mth later)

If you keep your fingers crossed - I'm sure it will Scott. Who am I to question that logic

Not bad for your fifth post!

lmao

Argo is in $70m of DEBT ($10m of interest payments per year)

Argo made a $10m loss in Q3

Argo needs the price of Bitcoin to go to $100k just to break-even

Argo started the year with $20m Cash and ($76m) DEBT - Net Debt of ($56m)

As of 30 Sept, Cash had reduced by $12m, Debt reduced by $6m. Cash remaining $8m and $70m debt oustanding)

Based on cash burn of $4m per quarter - Argo needs CASH desperately

I am expecting to see a placing any day now given the inflated share price

This share price values company at £170m c($200m). That is a lot for an unprofitable compnay with $70m Debt and cash running out.

The much anticipated halving eveny is not far away now - It will NOT be good for miners who will see half as many bitcoins in return for same effort. So for Argo to standstill they need the price of Bitcoin to double - and that would still leave them with $70m and unprofitable.

The Yanks are going to be well hacked off if we wake up to a Placing tomorrow....

ARB is up over 300% YTD

Bitcoin is up 150%

Its factually incorrect to suggest that the increase in ARB is not keeping pace with Bitcoin

The complete opposite infact

Maybe this is the final pump before the dump?