Member Info for HeadInTheSand

As I am HITS, I can easily explain why I bothered to knock up a quick spreadsheet, showing the distribution of revenues between Mercuria, ANGS and SEL, allowing for variables of monthly gas pricing and actual production obtained.

Firstly because it took me about 3 minutes to create. But mainly it was inspired by George's relatively recent lunatic prediction of "1.5 million therms equals £7.2 million of revenue". That was such a blatant exaggeration that it inspired me to take a look at the actual reality of things.

Bottom line? At production levels of 1.5 million therms per month, effectively 100% of production is hedged at fixed monthly pricing over the next three years, so the total revenue earnable from that production is entirely known (ANGS/SEL's share is £24 million between them).

It's basic stuff - and any even vaguely serious investor or potential investor will have doen the exact same thing.

Bottom line? If monthly production remains at 1.5 million therms throughout the three year hedge period, ANGS will struggle to make any nett profits out of Saltfleetby during that time. Which is why a successful sidetrack is crucial.

I'm not in the least flustered. Despite the permanent misdirection from the ramptastic squad, this has only and ever been about "how much gas and by when?".

There remain two crucial milestones that ANGS must both hit. First, full production of at least 1.125 million therms per month by July 1st. I would say that is now do-able - and of course, George is saying 1.5 million therms from June 1st. We'll see.

However much more important is getting to an increased monthly production level of at least 1.75 million therms from October 1st. And that's going to require a successful sidetrack, if ANGS wants to make any nett profits out of Saltfleeby over the next three years.

Not long to wait now to see which way this one finally breaks.

The point being made DoneK - as I am sure you knew anyway - is that without a successful sidetrack, ANGS would seem to be set to generate precious little (if any) nett profit over the next three years.

However, it's good to see one of the permanently uber-positive agreeing that the success of the sidetrack is literally crucial.

Oh dear...

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Gideons
Posts: 2,591
RE: Last chance?
Today 14:50

Mirasol and Silly Buttons are the same account Eh Headinthesad lmfao!

Good spot Gideon's :))))))

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Gideons has mixed up his accounts again. He thought he was logged in as Sparrowhawk1 (or another of his several IDs) and has accidentally replied to himself.

He keeps doing this - and that's the core problem for those permanently looking to deceive. They keep having to remember what they've said and which mask they're wearing when they're posting. Priceless.

BV, what on earth are you talking about? I mean I'm by now long-used to your deliberately ignoring inconvenient truths and instead resorting to Gideons-esque trite insult because you've got no other response...

...but this is apparently a new level of imbecility? Are you okay?

Gideons is giving his Sparrowhawk1 ID another brief bit of exercise, I see... same old, same old.

I disagree, WG... well, in part. The decision may get bounced at local level, but if it is, I'd say it's fairly nailed on to be won on appeal, given the current state of play of things.

BV I didn't see your question on UKOG and dilution?

I'm not an avid UKOG watcher. I decided a long time ago that Sando was a joke... which amusingly is a view that his long-term number one fanboi Gideons has recently magically come round to entirely agreeing with (unless of course he's flip-flopped back again? I don't pay much attention)).

I'm not sure what relevance a question on UKOG has to ANGS anyway?

Gideons, I acknowledge that the only way you have of trying to explain away the posting of less than positive views on ANGS is to try and make the ludicrous argument that ANGS has shown such consistent brilliance, transparency and competence that anyone being less than impressed simply must be some green activist Putin fan, but that's sadly the most farcical and most childish piece of blatantly obvious false reasoning.

However, it seems to be all you have...

Gideons my being less than impressed with ANGS's to date unbroken record of non-delivery and massively missed self-set deadlines and cost estimates has literally no relevance to my firm belief that the UK needs to be as energy self-sufficient as possible.

Sure, this doesn't mesh with the green activist mythical smear you eternally trot out... but it's hardly a difficult concept.

Presumably because Georgs and LSE have such a stellar record of accuracy?

George: "1.5 million therms in June is worth £7.2 million of revenue." No it isn't. It's worth c. half of that... and it wasn't worth anywhere near George's claim when he made it either.

LSE: "Investors can expect 1.5 million therms from May." No they can't as the company itself has since had to clarify.

As to Brockham, it'll come as no surprise to those who know my position on fossil fuels that I hope permission is granted on the 27th. It may not be, depending on councillor nervousness about their own seats, but if refused, it'll be passed on appeal.

I see Gideons giving one of his other many IDS another run-out...

Why would I hate that? I wish that the site had been brought back to full production months and months ago, as ANGS assured it would be.

The company has most recently stated its hope that full production equalling 1.5 million therms a month will start from June 1st. That's exactly six weeks away and it will be interesting to see if it manages to hit this latest revised estimate.

If this does actually happen, better late than never. And more importantly, getting to full production by July 1st latest is one of the two crucial milestones that categorically must be achieved in time because of the hedge, the other being the drilling of the successful sidetrack needed to augment monthly production by Oct 1st.

The latest hogwash to be spread is surely that ANGS continued with construction and provisioning on site during all or part of the long weekend just gone by, as vociferously insisted upon by both RT003 and now single post Slotracer as well.

Only two possibilities here.

Either no construction/provisioning too place between Fri-Mon and this was just made-up ramptastic BS

Or ANGS blatantly contravened its planning permission.

Take your pick. It has to be one of the above.

Why doesn't everyone just look at the UK specific ICE gas futures pricing, which is the same data that ANGS has itself said it uses?

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices

Jun 22 current gas pricing as of right now = 197.75p per therm.

Looking at or quoting US pricing is pretty much utterly meaningless.

Nice try, but no cigar... you had no clue. Possibly because like so many others, you only joined LSE very recently - on March 18th.

You have to love these deeply researched genuine investors... the ANGS AGM took place a week ago on April 5th.

I've given you the link to the hard data. Take a look for yourself, if you're not allergic to facts, that is.

PS on the 10th of March, the quoted Jun 22 gas price was trading between 286p to 331p per therm.

The easiest place to see UK sterling gas futures pricing per therm is here. It might be worth bookmarking:-

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices

June 22 is currently trading at 233p per therm.