Member Info for HeadInTheSand

"Ruth and her multiple alias druids..."

Dear oh dear. I thought we'd got past the green XR activist nonsense, but obviously not. RT003 is clearly committed to keeping the memory (and idiocy) of his erstwhile hero Gideons alive. Who knew he was such a fanboi?

" Is it any wonder large trades are flooding in day after day? It's not PIs buying these large chunks, it's funds, institutions and HNWIs.

Follow the money."

Hang on a second... at a total market cap of just £17 million, acquiring a notifiable proportion would only require an outlay of £510k. That is chump change level to "funds, institutions and HNWIs".

So Tigra if your theory is in any way right, where are the TR-1s?

IMO the volume is high because of the substantially increased amount of quick flipping going on. There's considerably more evidence to support that - and a complete absence of evidence pointing to any institution or individual building any sort of even small stake.

I did forget to mention the famous "8% revenue over-ride" the lenders get ongoing once the loan's been paid back - but although a very nice £9 million quids' worth over three years for doing nothing, that's small beer if the sidetrack performs as George has been eager to claim.

(I can't help wishing I had shares in Mercuria, though...)

Oh for balance, if the sidetrack is successful and does double production volumes say from Oct 1st, then that would mean the total three year gross revenue from the field rises from c. £95 million to c. £180 million at current mark to market futures pricing.

Mercuria would of course still get its £71 million over those three years (it really is in a win-win), but the remaining c. £109 million would get divvied up between ANGS and SEL.

As I said, literally transformational. But also pretty digital - It's all about that sidetrack.

It's all about how much gas and by when (as it always has been).

With no sidetrack, at current mark to market gas futures pricing, 1.5 million therms a month delivers c. £95 million of gross revenue over the three years from July 2022.

Of that £95 million, Mercuria gets c. £71 million, courtesy of the hedge, leaving ANGS and SEL to share £24 million of gross revenue. Out of that and within that three year period, the loan has to be paid off (£14 million inc interest). So, £10 million left, out of which three years of field opex costs need paying - say those are a very stingy £1 million per annum.

That would then leave ANGS and SEL to split the remaining £7 million between them. So... £3.5 million each over three years. Out of which ANGS itself needs to pay off the £1.4 million Knowe CLN (next year)... leaving it £2.1 million to cover off three years of its other G&A costs.

Which is precisely why the sidetrack is absolutely crucial. And if it is and kicks in by Oct 1st latest and does double production levels, that would literally be a transformational game changer. And if it's not... well, work it out for yourselves.

Tygra, I am not sure you're right.

Yes of course Mercuria (the party on the other side of the hedge) is only interested in money - and at the moment using mark to market gas pricing, it's contractually guaranteed in excess of £72 million on the 3 year hedge swap contract differentials. It is going to want that cash, come what may... and the SFBY asset solely in its own right is eminently sellable for a large amount.

John, the figures you quote are really out of date.

1.5 million therms a month is the expected production from the two producing wells. That's 54 million therms over three years. ANGS has hedged 52.375 million therms over those three years, ergo 100% of non-sidetrack production as near as dammit.

As for August? The hedged quantity there is actually 1.125 million therms (as it also is for July and Sept). Come Oct 1st, it rises to 1.75 million therms a month for 9 months (so in excess of the 1.5 million monthly production forecast).

All of which goes yet again to show that a successful sidetrack is by far the most crucial thing for ANGS to achive. Crank the numbers and you'll see that without this, they'll struggle to make any nett profit at all out of Saltfleetby over the next three years. Equally though, with a successful sidetrack that actually does double monthly production to 3 million therms, they'll make a very tidy sum indeed.

Leaving aside the boring cheap shots from those who dislike facts...

It is true that June (and just June) is one single month of major opportunity for ANGS. If - as George still promises - it could start full production on June 1st (12 days' time, so not looking too likely) and if that full month of production delivered 1.5 million therms, then at current June gas prices, that would deliver £2.64 million of gross revenue to be shared between ANGS and SEL. And equally every day of slippage would means that an £88k gross revenue opportunity is lost. That's not a small chunk of change at all to a company that has been in a zero revenue position for so long, so yes, every single day really is important.

Obviously this does not apply in any way to July or thereafter, courtesy of the 36 month hedge, during which period available gross revenues on 1.5 million monthly therms to ANGS and SEL plummet.

Odd post by Crocqman above? Not displaying his usual logic and sangfroid? Looks like he's finally been sucked into the tribalism too... shame, really.

I suspect the lack of volume of posts is down to two things. Partly, because there have been notably fewer ridiculous claims being made, but mainly because everybody's waiting to see how the actual reality of things turns out for ANGS over the next four or so months.

Yanis, it's not long now to see if you're right.

My view remains that there may be a small relief-based/emotive spike caused on news of wet commissioning starting and/or news of first gas. But even with ANGS's shall we say chequered track record to date, surely nobody thinks there's any doubt of these two being achieved in the near future? I don't think that's in question for a second.

Now, news on the actual produceable amounts of gas... that's surely much more significant, no?

Yanis, I don't think the market has any doubt that gas will flow. I am beyond certain it's instead interested in how much will flow and by when (as it always has been)..

I don't think this is "just one piece of news" away. Here's my personal list of milestones that need to be achieved in order for this to take off significantly> The below in my view on increasing order of importance (and also in soonest to furthest away order as well):-

a) Confirmation of whether a sidetrack will be permissible to attempt without halting production
b) Full production start
c) Confirmation of sustainable full production volumes from the two existing wells.
d) Confirmation of sidetrack start date and timescale required
e) Making the sidetrack attempt
f) Confirmation of what (if any) effect the sidetrack has had on monthly produceable volumes.

I think that about covers it as far as ANGS and Saltfleetby are concerned.

I think there's an awful lot of quick flipping going on. Recent heightened BB activity would very much suggest that.

Howey, I'm not at all sure you and I have "different goals". Mine is all about trying to provide some balance and realism - and I am sure you'd agree that people being as fully informed of as many angles as possible is a good thing.

Where we do (without a doubt) differ is in terms of each of our projected outcomes for ANGS over the next several months. Which is why you're invested and I no longer am. And that's fine.

The number that's considerably more important to know than future gas pricing is the actual monthly production volume.

Because unless ANGS produces more gas than it has hedged, quite literally the only party that benefits from a rising gas price is Mercuria.

You may recall that from the get-go, I have been saying that this is all about how much gas and by when... because that really is all that it is about. I've happily considered the "best of all possible worlds" situation (as one should) and if the sidetrack is successful and doubles production, then as I have said frequently, I reckon ANGS would justify an SP north of 5p.

But I've also considered the other end of the sliding scale, (i.e. no successful sidetrack) and cranked the basic numbers on that too - because that's obviously a sensible thing to do as well. There are plenty here who still just don't get the financial implications of the hedge and don't realise that, if the sidetrack does not succeed, ANGS will struggle to make any nett profit out of Saltfleetby over the next three years.

I cannot understand why anyone rational and genuine would object to both sides of any "what if" situation being put up for discussion. I'm sure you'd agree that confirmation bias is a dangerous thing - so surely counter-opinion is actually the most useful opinion of all?

As for Yanis and other genuine long-term holders, I quite genuinely hope they do very well out of ANGS.

Howey, I would dispute negative "tone". IMO it would be more accurate to highlight content, rather than tone.

I'd also dispute which side triggers which. I would certainly post less often if there were less ridiculous and unsupportable claims made by the ramptastic squad. Not that anyone has time to make any sort of count, but I'd say that the amount of ramptastic posts and posters on ANGS massively outweigh those representing a warier position. After all, even RT003 has only been able to name three more cautious posters, myself included - and that number is very obviously dwarfed by those of an uber-positive disposition.

(Amusingly, and showing the same level of acute perceptiveness which caused him to be a stalwart member of multi-ID Gideons' fan club for we ks and weeks before the penny finally dropped for him, RT003 is still determinedly perpetrating the myth that any posts made that are not hugely positive on ANGS simply must all come from one individual... one has to smile).

Howey, there are genuine long-term holders here... that's obvious enough. However, there are equally obviously IMO a much larger number of those looking to make money by playing the tawdry "get others to catch the falling knife" game (aka "pass the parcel bomb"). As their posts clearly show, the latter would have anyone believe that ANGS is a 120% nailed-on, cast-iron multi-bagging certainty - that's the narrative that they are hellbent on pushing.

I'm one for balance - because a single voice echo chamber is not a good thing and merely engenders snowballing confirmation bias (as those disingenuous short-term traders well know). ANGS is of course not nailed on as an opportunity.

Sure, it's not digital either - full production might be on time (well, it might meet George's latest assurance) or it might slip (it can hardly be early at this stage). And sure, full and sustained production from the two existing wells might be more or less than the 1.5 million therms a month that George is now forecasting. And again sure, the sidetrack will fall somewhere along the scale of failure and production-doubling and it too could be early or late.

But the narrative most perpetrated here is that everything is going to turn out for the absolute best - and even then the predictions made by the less than genuine are often still utterly ludicrous (20p... 30p... 50p just around the corner etc etc). At no stage do such individuals even consider the other side of the "what if" - and indeed to their level best to make sure it isn't mentioned. I personally think that's inappropriate.

I don't understand why there's any lack of clarity on what volumes are needed to meet the hedge commitments? This information was published six months ago.

Year 1 it's 19.125 million therms, year 2 it's 18 million therms and year 3 it's 15.25 million therms, totalling 52.375 million therms over the entire 36 month hedge.

Carpking, I don't claim to be any sidetrack expert at all.

All I've done is look at what revenues are delivered with a successful sidetrack and what revenues are delivered without one.

If you want to find out what can go wrong with sidetracks, why not read up on what went wrong with the last four attempts to sidetrack from the well (SF07) that ANGS is going to attempt to drill from? I imagine it had to be professionals who went to the time and expense of each of those four attempts with some expectation of likely success?

...and as ever, all the deliberately ddeceptive ramp squad can do when confronted with the most simple of factual maths is resort to childish insult. One does wonder what they're so scared of?

It's ever so simple... if ANGS manages to get 3 million therms out of Saltfleety via a successful production-doubling sidetrack by Oct 1st latest, I reckon it'll be worth north of 5p per share as I have said more than once before. Everyone's very happy with that scenario, of course.

But when I mention the other possible alternative, namely that ANGS only gets 1.5 million therms a month out of Saltfleetby ongoing and point out that this would mean it wouldn't make any nett profits out of the field over the next three years, the heavenly choir goes mouth-frothingly crazy with rage.

It's laughable, really. Both scenarios are accurate and both are equally likely. Why try to pretend one doesn't exist?