Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Gideons, you say:-

"George is enfatic the wells will do 1.5 therms. I think he knows it will do more."

George has been both enfatic and emphatic about many things in the past - including the recent past (1.5 million x 130p = £7.2 million, anyone?) - none of which have turned out to materialise.

You "think he knows it will do more"... you also were convinced he told the market that first gas would be reached by the end of Q1 this year.

Gideons, don't be even more ridiculous than usual.

As of yet, nobody knows what the sustainable flow rates will be from the two producing wells.

Sure we have George's recent stated hope for 1.5 million monthly therms - but as the undeviating and substantial lack of accuracy of all his promises, projections and predictions spouted to date demonstrate, he's not going to be headhunted to take on the role of Mystic Meg any time soon.

B_F, agreed. ANGS will quickly know the sustainable flow rate pretty quickly after full production start, but we may not get real info on that until much later via the official OGA figures. It's hardly unknown for any AIM O&G micro-cap to trumpet "amazing" initial flow rates, then omit to mention any rapid subsequent dropping off (Sando, anyone?)

That would depend solely upon my view on how likely it is for ANGS to meet the two milestones I've specified in a timely fashion

News on wet testing may cause a minor spike in the SP, out of relief, more than anythign else.

However, I believe the market is waiting on two far more significant key milestones, namely:-.

1. Full production start with confirmation of consistent flow rate.

2. Sidetrack successfully drilled with confirmation of the sustainable increase to monthly production.

Unsurprisingly, Gideons' secondary ID SparrowHawk is (of course) determinedly avoiding the question posed, namely, what exactly are the inaccuracies in any of the less than droolingly positive posts in this particular thread.

This is because there aren't any.

Hence all he can resort to is his ludicrous "anyone not utterly smitten with George must be a member both of the KGB and of Extinction Rebellion" childish nonsense.

Why is someone "green" for pointing out the exceedingly distant relationship with the truth that some of George's recent pronouncements have had?

SB is just stating very easily verifiable facts? Oh hang on, I forgot... Gideons and his ilk are violently allergic to facts.

Oh and PS, George has already u-turned on his "1.5 million therms of production by May" projection.

Ignore very easily auditable facts? Strange advice indeed.

Every single one of those debts/liabiities is a matter of public record, as per the SANGS website.

ANGS only becomes debt-free if (and only if) the as yet unattempted sidetrack doubles monthly production.

As for revenue? In the 12 months to end June 2023, at today's forward gas pricing, the field owes Mercuria (the part yon the other side of the hedge) £32.5 million, utterly regardless of how little or how much gas is produced.

So, if the sidetrack is unsuccessful (like the other 4 attempts to sidetrack from Well SF07 have all been), with a monthly production of 1.5 million therms, ANGS and SEL would share gross revenue of £6 million between them out of Saltfleetby.

Obviously if it is successful and does double production volumes, then that shared gross revenue increases dramatically to £36 million in the same period, given current gas futures.

Depends which debt you're referring to.

Warrant debt? About £1.6 million.

Loan debt? About £14 million, including interest.

Liabilities on the three year hedge at today's future monthly gas pricing? About £74 million.

To put this more correctly, three weeks until George's latest issued estimate in a series of endlessly revised projections. He still has a little leeway on this, needing to get to full production without fail by July 1st.

Not yet. They have apparently measured pressure form the two previously producing wells.

The expectation recently and repeatedly set by the CEO from those two wells is 1.5 million therms of production a month. Not too long to wait to see if he's finally right on something.

I totally agree with Crocqman and Oktane.

The only thing I'd add is to underline the importance of the word "profitable" in Oktane's well-put "the share price will not go higher until real confirmed profitable sustainable production happens".

And here it is hugely useful to work out the very significant effect that the three year hedge has on what gross revenues get left to be split out between ANGS and SEL. Having done this, IMO at production levels of 1.5 million therms per month (i.e. without there being a successful sidetrack), ANGS will not make any nett profits out of Saltfleetby over the next three years, given their already incurred liabilities and obligations.

Needless to say, a successfully drilled and production-doubling sidetrack would be a complete game-changer. Obviously reaching full production by July 1st is massively important - but actually, increasing that production by October 1st is even more crucial.

Everything is speculation up util those two points - and at the moment opinion can literally only depend upon how much faith anyone is prepared to put in George's latest set of endlessly revised promises and projections. And that depends upon how ready anyone is to completely ignore his undeviating track record to date.

George has been saying 1.5 million therms a month (= 4.86 mmscfd) from the two existing wells for some time now.

Given his track record of never erring on the side of under-optimism, the chances of it being more than that are vanishingly small.

Gideons, I said "by" Oct 1st. If the field is to be nett profitable for ANGS over the three years of the hedge, the sidetrack a) needs to be successful and b) needs to kick in by Oct 1st.

Interesting IQ asked about whether gas production would need to be suspended while any sidetrack is attempted. It' s about time ANGS gave a clear answer on that.

An SP of 50p in 18-24 months??? A £650 million MCap??? Nurse for TT please...

I think the wrong and largely irrelevant trigger points have been chosen.

Full production (providing it turns out to be 1.5 million therms a month) 2nd half of June at best. SP 1.5p-1.6p based on emotion/relief.

Successful sidetrack kicking in by Oct 1st and doubling monthly production to 3 million therms? SP 5p - 6p. (This would be a total game changer).

No successful sidetrack? SP drops back from current levels, because in that case, ANGS will struggle to make any nett profits out of Saltfleetby while the three year hedge is in place.

Buying Chelsea FC?

Absolutely bang on the money, Oktane. It's as blatantly obvious as it is mildly depressing, isn't it?

Gideons is clearly going to use his SparrowHawk1 account (and others, no doubt) to try to deramp the share. Then if the SP falls, he'll reappear as Gideons, the ID he reserves for uber-positivism, claiming to have forgiven Yanis and to be back in - and for the long-term.

Rinse and repeat. It's a particularly unpleasant and dishonest way to attempt to make a few quid, IMO.

Fractionally more interesting is the fact that (presuming he ever actually held any shares) he chose to flip when he did? He obviously isn't expecting any significant upward SP movement any time soon, despite his reams of ramptastic nonsense...

This remains - as has been said just a few times before - solely about how much gas and by when,

The words "Gideons" and "principles" should never be mentioned in the same sentence - well not unless separated by the phrase "hasn't got any".

This is the most flagrant and most laughable piece of pantomime I've seen in a while. Gideons spent weeks and weeks posting 30 times a day, every day, assuring one and all that the SP is about to explode... then despite this, (allegedly) sells up in a huff, thus missing out on the multi-bags he's promised are literally days away. Very plausible...

Gideons has obviously not met his posting KPIs and has had his boiler room contract cancelled.