Member Info for HeadInTheSand

I'll stick with facts, thanks, Gideons. The fairy stories like "First gas by end March!" and "1.5 million therms equals £7.2 million of revenue!" I'll leave to the liars and the dreamers... which are you?

You're right BV. Entirely made up fairy stories are always more appealing than boring cold, hard facts.

Now, as to which of those two is more useful when making investment decisions... that's an entirely separate question.

I see the basic maths is still irritating you BV... unsurprising. It is hard to argue against.

Frankly I normally wouldn't have bothered, except for the wild overexaggerations continually being put forward by those of a more deceptive persuasion.

Agreed Yanis. By far the most important. And then provided there's a a successful sidetrack by Oct, things will be just fine.

Yanis, 200p per therm wouldn't produce £3 million of revenue for ANGS and SEL once the hedge kicks in.

In fact, in July this year, 200p per therm and a production of 1.5 million therms would actually deliver Mercuria £1.78 million, and ANGS and SEL roughly £610k of gross revenue each.

JD-Nau, in the 10th March RNS, Lucan made this still much-repeated statement (though as SillyButtons has said, the company has rowed back on that figure given in more recent answers to Investor Questions):-

"In fact, gross production, of which we have a 51% share, solely from the existing wells and which is wholly unhedged for the month of June, is expected to yield 1.5 million therms or gross revenue of £7.2 million at today's forward price for that month alone."

£7.2 million divided by 1.5 million therms = 480p per therm... except the forward price for June never got anywhere near 480p per therm.

Lucan's figures were actually based on 480p per therm...

The loan is specifically for getting Saltfleetby to production. It can without doubt be used for any costs (inc labour) to do with that. It cannot be used for ANGS board salaries or general expenses (G&A).

Apologies. A brogue full stop.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices

I see one of the ramptastic squad's only tactic is to keep repeating the same wild exaggeration that is very easily proved to have never been true. It's a bit tragic, really.

Stockbob, by repeating George's wild exaggeration, you're just making him (and yourself) look even more ludicrously overoptimistic.

Gas is at £2.40p per therm. 1.5 million x £2.40 = £3.6 million. If you bother checking the charts, there wee just two days in March where the immediate spot price of gas reached the £4.80 per therm needed to make George's claim true. The June 22 gas price has been nowhere near that level. Ever.

If the sidetrack is unsuccessful? Because of the differential on the hedge swap contracts, Nicks.

The CEO was wildly exaggerating. Current June/July gas pricing is NOT £4.85 per therm... it's around £2.40p per therm. See https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices.

1.5 million therms times £2.40 equals £3.6 million.

This is all very basic maths and the calcs are not wrong. Work it out for yourself and pop in your own set of variable (monthly production levels and gas pricing). The only things that are fixed are the monthly hedged volumes and the fixed pricing for those..

Having trouble arguing with the basic maths, BV?

https://i.ibb.co/8XqJy1d/ANGS-RR.jpg

There's so much nonsense being spouted by so many here on possible ANGS revenue levels, including in that recent LSE interview (can't imagine why that was timed the way it was, eh?).

It's ever so easy to work out the possibilities. Take a look at :-

hTTps://i.ibb.co/8XqJy1d/ANGS-RR.jpg

Sure, feel free to include an extra 1.5 million therms of entirely unhedged revenue in June if you believe what George very recently said, just prior to this placing. That'd bump ANGS numbers up by £1.9 million.

And sure, if you think that the sidetrack will a) be successful in adding a further 1.5 million therms of monthly production and b) that this will kick in earlier than October, feel free to add that too. (George mentioned August in passing in his very recent uber-positive pre-placing interview). An extra two months of a successful sidetrack at those hoped-for additional volumes would bump ANGS revenues up by £1.9 million a month as well.

And absolutely, choose your own future gas pricing.

But whichever way one cuts it, ANGS seems certain to need a successful sidetrack producing by Oct 1st. Because Mercuria is contractually guaranteed going on £39 million on hedge swap contract differentials between July 22 and June 23, come what may.

What happened to the £1.4 million raised only 2 months ago?

Either the current monthly cashburn is much greater than we've been led to believe, or revenue from Saltfleetby is farther away than the company has led people to expect.

£2.5 million of new confetti issued by the company since early Feb this year...

One would really hope so. This year alone, ANGS has alread raised nigh on £2.5 million by issuing new confetti.

Well, the reason for GavinM's much pumped "rumour" that "Shell is going to bid 5.77p by Friday!" is now utterly obvious, even to those who couldn't see that for what it was previously.

That £1.4 million they raised just 2 months ago didn't last long, did it? And they didn't even use any of that to pay Gneiss off their £350k either... they did that in newly issued shares too...

For general costs while awaiting revenue from Saltfleetby... given that the latter is less than 8 weeks away (at least according to the latest set of endlessly revised promises from the company), they must have been perilously close to running out of cash. Yet again.

The significantly increased posting activity from the ramptastic squad over the last couple of weeks and George's wildly over-egged love-in interview with LSE turn out - as ever - to have the depressingly usual P&D motivation.

Hey, at least it's only a 5% dilution. This time.

I am rather glad I knocked up that spreadsheet, because it makes it ever so easy to truth test claims being made.

No successful sidetrack? £2.6 million of gross revenue to ANGS by December (and add another £1.9 million if you believe George's speculative claim that the field will deliver a full 1.5 million therms of production in June). So absolute max £4.5 million, of which over £4 million would be earned between Jun and Sept, with sub £150k per month after that point for Oct to Mar.

And with a successful sidetrack doubling production up to 3 million therms a month? An extra £1.9 million of gross revenue to ANGS per month of operation within the period to end Dec 22. My view is if successful, Sept at best, but people may differ.