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Full production in just 24 days' time? They've not finished provisioning the field yet, nor reached first gas, not conducted their wet and dry testing.

That's about as truthful as your previous blatant falsehood of "first gas by end March", Gideons.

ANGS itself is talking about June and even the company's own most rose-tinted forecast states as follows:-

"On the basis of a side track completed and online by mid August then H2 gross revenues (Angus share 51%) might be in the region of £24m which would ignore any benefit of unhedged production during June, potentially worth a further £4.5m at 300pence/therm."

So that'd be an absolute max of £14 million ish to ANGS in this calendar year, according to the company itself. And that's highly optimistic.

Noel, yes, your numbers are bang on, but only if you presume that

a) full production of 1.5 million therms starts from May 1st (in my view next to impossible. June is far more realistic.)
b) a successful sidetrack is drilled (the jury's obviously completely out on this because this hasn't been started yet)
c) said sidetrack delivers an additional 1.5 million monthly therms from August 1st (in my view staggeringly unlikely. Even if successful, September best case).

At the time of writing this post, average prices are 249p per therm for June 22, rising to 273 p per therm for Jan 23, then dropping back into the mid 150s.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices
.

Again Stockbob reposts that already totally debunked quote. It is complete BS.

A. 1.5 million therms does not deliver £7.2 million of revenue, because gas pricing is not 480p per therm. It's currently 240p per therm. That would give ANGS a revenue of £1.8 million in June, if it manages a full month of production.

B. Come July, the first 1.125 million therms of what ANGS produce gets sold at 42p per therm under the hedge, with only the balance available to sell at open market pricing. So 1.5 million therms in July would drop ANGS's share of revenue for that month down to sub £700k (not quite £7.2 million, is it? Or even £3.6 million?)

C. George has already made clear that part of production from any successful sidetrack will in fact be hedged. Why? Because he' s predicted 1.5 million therms of production without a sidetrack... but the company has hedged 1.75 million therms from October this year and for nine months.

Basically, the statement above that the ramptastic squad love to post is both inaccurate and as such highly misleading.

As has been mentioned (and it's a fact), authority has been granted to the ANGS board to issue just over a billions n new shares. Of these, up to 635 million may be used in closed or private placings. That is a surprisingly large authority, given the number of shares currently in issue.

However, just because ANGS has been granted that authority does not mean it has to use all or any of it.

No surprises on the resolutions, though the authority granted to issue new shares is quite large (1.045 billion, of which 653 million can be used for closed placings). However, just because ANGS has the authority doesn't mean it's necessarily going to use all or any of it.

Would people be happy with say even a 2p all-confetti offer from the likes of SOU anyway? One would think not.

"These are not the droids you are looking for..."

The current SOU SP would today value ANGS shares at 1.63p, going by their last all-confetti "possible offer" which (oddly) wasn't rejected by the Angus board and which was (even more oddly) was supported by some chunky ANGS shareholders holding c. 18% of the company between them at the time, wasn't it? Having said that...

If George's ongoing perma-optimism is even to be vaguely believed, surely the whole "SOU as a potential buyer" thing has to be seen as a complete waste of time? Why even entertain any approach from a cash-starved minnow, when ANGS is allegedly on the point of greatness?

Outstanding analogy, Tigra... hats off.

To that just posted timelines, I suggest the following gets added.

OCTOBER - successfully drilled sidetrack kicks in and doubles monthly gas production to 3 million therms (please God).

He'd have a very long wait...

There are just two things necessary for this to take off - but they're both necessary.

First, ANGS has to show that it can produce the 1.5 million therms a month it promised from the two producing wells. It needs to do that by July 1st latest (I believe the earliest realistic current estimate for full production start is early June, so that may go okay).

Then ANGS has to drill a successful sidetrack and get that producing an additional 1.5 million therms a month, again as forecast by George in his recent interview. It needs to do this by Oct 1st latest - though to be fair, that sidetrack doesn't need to double production, but everybody's recent numbers on possible valuation are based on George meeting one of his assurances for once. The latest estimate from the company for the sidetrack coming online is August, but IMV September is way more likely - and that of course presumes that it is successful.

If those two things get achieved, it's happy days for ANGS and its shareholders. Sure, Mercuria is still due its many tens of millions of pounds over the three year hedge contract (if gas prices stayed at current levels for the full three years, the field would owe Mercuria over £130 million pounds, courtesy of the hedge), but ANGS and SEL would have the production levels to satisfy that and make a very healthy packet in addition.

Of course, if ANGS cannot achieve those two things - and especially the successful sidetrack - things look the polar opposite. Mercuria's due its money under the hedge, regardless of how much or how little gas gets extracted.

Tigra, re getting SFBY off ANGS's hands, any decision on that is first and foremost in the hands of the lenders while the loan persists. So whatever offer may come in, it would have to satisfy the ANGS board, the majority of ANGS shareholders and most importantly of all, the lenders.

The other questions revolving around disposing of SFBY on its own relate to repaying that loan and the hedge obligation. The only two possibilities would seem to be that either ANGS (and SEL) pay off the loan out of the proceeds of any sale of the asset and/or clear the entire 36 month hedge at a mark to market rate, or that the lenders and those on the other side of the hedge (Mercuria in both cases) agree with any new licence holder to either or both of those liabilities transferring with the asset sale.

We'll have to wait and see.

I agree it's slightly odd to release an RNS that just repeats unchanged information already very recently given (on the 10th March).

I don't think it's very likely to do with any parties that may be accumulating.

However, if anything, I'd agree with Tigra that, if it signifies anything, it's more likely to do with the announcement of an offer that the board is prepared to recommend and that has the backing of existing major shareholders (re the latter, let's not forget that the SOU all confetti offer had that - and also let's not forget that SOU's extended deadline terminates this week). Whether any forthcoming offer announcement would meet with the satisfaction of other existing ANGS shareholders is of course a separate question.

Gideons, unlike all the made-up nonsense you post, it's pure fact.

Here's possibly a simpler way of putting mt Scenario B below..

The 1.5 million therms of production in October get sold for £4.5 million.

ANGS/SEL get £780k between them (1.5 million x 52.05p). That leaves £3.72 million to go to Mercuria... but Mercuria's due more than that. It's due £4.34 million - so it's c. £600k short.

ANGS/SEL therefore owe Mercuria £600k, leaving them £180k to share.

@Jollifant, actually both statements are accurate.

Perhaps an example would help? Let's take October this year. and let's presume gas pricing is 300p per therm.

SCENARIO A.
If ANGS produces 3 million therms in October because the sidetrack is successful, then that obviously gives a total revenue of £9 million. Now, who gets what? The hedge for that month is 1.75 million therms at 52.05p per therm.

The ANGS and SEL combo benefit from 1.75 million therms sold at 52.05p under the hedge. That's £910k. The ANGS/SEL combo further benefit from 1.25 million therms sold at the open market price which we're saying is 300p. that's £3.75 millon. That's a total of £4.66 million to be split between ANGS and SEL, so £2.33 million each for that one month.

Mercuria benefits from the difference between the hedge price and the open market price (300p - 52.05p = 248p) times the hedged quantity (1.75 million therms). So it's owed and gets £4.34 million.

£4.66 million plus £4.34 million = £9 million. It all reconciles.

SCENARIO B.
However, if the sidetrack is unsuccessful, then what happens in October? The field produces 1.5 million therms that month at a revenue of £4.5 million. Who now gets what?

Well, the amount Mercuria is owed/guaranteed for that month does not change. It's still owed the difference between the hedge price and the open market price (300p - 52.05p = 248p) on the 1.75 million therm hedged quantity, which is again £4.34 million. The monthly amount owed to Mercuria stays the same regardless of the volume of gas production.

So... £4.34 million to Mercuria again in this instance, leaving ANGS and SEL to share the remaining £160k.

£4.34 million plus £160k = £4.5 million. It all reconciles again.

Which is why those here who understand what a hedge contract means and how it works are pointing out that a successful sidetrack is literally crucial.

I cannot put it any simpler than that.

No problem, Noel. I take it you knocked up a quick, spreadsheet too?

I was inspired to when I heard George make his utterly bizarre claim (which the company has now firmly rowed back on in its answer to that investor question) that 1.5 million therms equalled £7.2 million of revenue. I felt that actual hards facts might be useful.

An attack? Oh please...

How can basic maths be an attack? Maths just doesn't lie (unlike yourself Gideons/Sparrowhawk1 with your "first gas by end March guaranteed!" and "£50 million annual revenue for ANGS!"). Good luck with the reporting.

Actually I overstated. It's £25 million revenue each for ANGS and SEL, if the sidetrack doesn't kick in till Oct 22. If it kicks in in Sep 22 to the level George hopes for, then it's £27 milion of revenue each. Mercuria's level of pure profit of course does not change, no matter how much gas is produced.

It took literally 2 minutes to knock up an Excel spreadsheet... but then again, many here are allergic to hard, cold and ever so easily verifiable facts, so won't bother, because those facts don't fit their deliberately misleading agendas.

And Gideons, these are facts now confirmed by the company itself in its recent very answer to an investor question as featured on the company website. ANGS's own revenue projection is there for all to see.

Or are you calling the company liars as well?

Noel I don't particularly disagree, though I think 3m therms from Sept is pushing it. I went 1.5m from June (which is an ask, frankly, but still) , then 3m from Oct.

Presuming gas at 300p per therm, those calcs give £27m of revenue each to ANGS and SEL by end July 23, plus £48m of pure profit to Mercuria.

Feel free to check.