Member Info for HeadInTheSand

The simple answer (sadly) is that Stockbob is one of the many here looking to dupe the unwary and pick their pockets.

Tawdry way to try to make a few quid.

..."expected" (but impossible) £7.2 million quids' worth of June revenue....

How exciting. Those chickens George and fan club have been so determined to count well before they're hatched are shortly coming home to roost.

What are Stockbob and Asher going to do when George is proven to have exaggerated wildly about the earnable gross revenue in June?

As they both are so keen to keep reminding anyone naive enough to pay attention, George stated he "expected" £7.2 million of revenue in June...

Literally impossible - even with a month of full production - and out by a factor of more than 3, absolute best case.

Of course, neither will care at all. Truth and reality aren't of the slightest interest to them and their pickpocketing ilk.

10 days to go till George's promised full production start (he's of corse already missed the May promise being quoted by the heavenly choir). And just 40 days before his "exoected" ( but imlossible

Angs has already missed Aany chance of May production. Fact. George was as per usual over-optimistic and just plain wrong.

If achieved, 1.5 million therms at current June pricing of 148p per therm would deliver £2.22 million. Fact. George was wildly exaggerating.

The above two statements remain true, no matter how often you try to juslead, Stockbob.

A truly pathetic ramp attempt, as is usual from you.

Stockbob, again you seize upon George's massive over-exaggeration and use it in an attempt to deceive.

George claimed on March 10th as follows:-

"The focus is now away from skid delivery to installation with the aim of having the site ready for commissioning during April and producing during May."

(Well, he's clearly already missed that timescale estimate).

"In fact, gross production, of which we have a 51% share, solely from the existing wells and which is wholly unhedged for the month of June, is expected to yield 1.5 million therms or gross revenue of £7.2 million at today's forward price for that month alone."

This was never anywhere near true, even when he said it on March 10th - at that point June gas was priced at around 290p a therm and rapidly falling, and CATEGORICALLY NOT at the 480p per therm that would have been needed to make George's bizarrely inaccurate claim true..

Back to reality (apparently not something that George is used to).. Even presuming he can start production on June 1st (doubtful) and get 1.5 million therms out in the month, yes it all would be unhedged...

...but June gas is priced at 148p per them, so that's £2.22 million of revenue, if he can produce that much and categorically NOT what his Lordship was wildly exaggerating just a couple of months back.

Feel free to fact check any and all info above. It's all freely available and all in the public domain.

As has been repeatedly said, the sidetrack - if successful and if doubling production and if kicking in by Oct 1st at the latest - would be literally transformational.

At current gas pricing, it would change ANGS's share of gross revenue from the field over the three year hedge period from c £12 million over those three years to c. £55 million over the same period.

This is a very digital situation. It's all about the sidetrack being successful - and that is every bit as vital as it would be transformational.

Let me try to help you further, RT.

The calculation is ever so simple. It's:-

(the amount hedged that month x the fixed hedge price for that month) + (any remaining unhedged amount that month x the future gas price for that month).

Future gas pricing is publicly available for all to check at https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices

So, June. That's (0 x 0) + (1,500,000 x 148p) = £2.220 million gross revenue to be shared between ANGS and SEL.

And July. That's (1,125,000 x 41.4p) + (375,000 x 167p) = £1.092 million gross revenue to be shared between ANGS and SEL..

I'll even do October for you. That's (1,750,000 x 52.05p) + (minus 250,000 x 214p) = £376k gross revenue to be shared between ANGS and SEL..

If you're incapable of working the above out for yourself, then perhaps it's little wonder that you were laughably a fawning acolyte of one of LSE's most obvious rampers for so long, hanging on his every deceptive word.

RT003 showing his usual obtuseness by bizarrely criticising a short and entirely factual accurate answer to a question that was asked. Newsflash... facts cannot be ramps or deramps. They're just and only facts.

But hey, on the off chance that basic maths operates differently in the Philippines, why don't you give your version of an answer to the poster's question?

What would 1.5 million therms of gas be worth to ANGS/SEL in June? And in July?

£2.22 million of gross revenue to be split between ANGS and SEL if produced in June.

£1.1 million of gross revenue to be split between ANGS and SEL if produced in July (because 75% of that volume has been hedged at 41.4p per therm).

Accordign to the official OGA figures, the average monthly output over the last 12 months of unimpeded production from Saltfleetby from mid 2016 to mid 2017 was actually 1.22 million therms. NB this was before any problems at Theddlethorpe kicked in from the 2nd half of 2017.

Sentinel, as others have said, you're just plain wrong. ANGS hopes for a consistent 1.5 million monthly therms from the two existing producing wells, then a further 1.5 million therms a month from a successful sidetrack. It remains to be seen whether it can achieve either or both of those things.

"He should not have stated a time bracket if he wasn't 100% positive it could be met."
Fully agreed, but as you and others point out, this is what he's continually done. It remains to be seen whether he's done it again.

"With the unexpected surge in gas prices that has coincided with SFB coming on track, he's basically fell down a hole and landed in a pool of soft Nutella."
Well, the Nutella only appears if ANGS manages to produce more gas than it's hedged - otherwise a sharply elevated gas price makes literally zero difference to company fortunes over the next three years. Again everyone's reliant on a George prediction coming true...

"What more do you want?"

Well, full production of 1.5 million therms a month starting in 11 days' time as promised by George would probably be appreciated...

I note with zero surprise that nobody's dealing with the reasonably asked question as to which part of the site is beign tested....

You won't get an answer to that reasonable question.

Anyhow, just 11 days to go to see if George has finally got an estimate correct.

Tygra, my point remains that although 41 million shares sounds like a hell of a lot, it only amounts to less than £600k. That's still very small beer for institutional investors of almost any size.

I certainly agree that the volume is not related to loads of smaller PIs suddenly deciding to bail in or out. However, the volumes involved look much more like professional short-term traders regularly dipping in and out in mid 5 figure pound note numbers, rather than anything else.

Focus on the sidetrack is hardly surprising, given how essential and material it is.

In fact, all those claiming that "debt will be cleared by year-end" are also equally focussing on the sidetrack in making the assumption that it will be successful, because without it, there is literally no way whatsoever that debt could be cleared within that timescale.

Well, nobody's accumulating any sort of significant position (despite recent bizarre claims to the contrary) - simply because there have been no TR-1s issued.

There would however seem to be a marked increase in quick flip trading over the last couple of weeks.

And sI'm really not sure that someone such as yourself who slavishly hung on every nonsense word from one of LSE's most obvious disingenuous rampers for months has a particularly strong position from which to talk about low IQ and and an abject lack of perceptiveness...

But hey ho, each to his or her own.

Johnno for some reason, every day LSE always shows a massive and entirely incorrect spread on ANGS shortly before trading starts.

Seriously RT003... what are you talking about? It seems you've either Qanoned yourself, or you simply can't shake off your worship of your previous guru. Conspiracy theories... never a good thing to fall for.