@ Legalwolf, i'm not sure either to be honest. Raise would deffinatly keep the share price suppressed for longer as the 0.75p investor from the ipo will be selling for a little while yet in my view and we don't even know if the 0.95p 'high net worth's' from the 2M£ raise are in for a good few years or will be the next set of off loaders before goldplat starts to reduce it's stake when the lockup period ends in my view.
Just speculating of course, a raise would only happen if the team are desperate for the money as with all the share payments etc. they will need to convert into shares etc., with a raise ontop they will find it difficult to get nicely above 2.5p for the warrants to convert if they want funding that way.........
My advice, either average in while you can bid for under 1p, or wait for the acquisition for confirmation of near term funding/ share conversions (my guess is a share payment will be @ 5 day vwap).
Whoops, didn't realize I couldn't copy over a table.
Basically, if you look at the bottom of the 2021 results there is a deffered tax asset of 100m$ and deffered tax liability of 280m$ due in the next 12 Months.
Obviously there will be some more offsets to claim against tax or the company would be loss making but I can't seem to find out how much deffered tax actually needs paying. Would anyone be supprised to see 40m$ a quarter deffered tax?
Been looking through the last couple reports looking for deffered tax liabilities as I was wondering, with the $40M deffered charge paid in q1, how many more potential payments may there be?
*From the 2020 accounts I have found;
The Group's tax charge for 2020 was $5.1 million, compared to $29.1 million for 2019.
The tax charge is made up of a deferred tax credit of $8.5 million and a current tax charge of $13.6 million. The deferred tax credit is mainly driven by the unutilised capital allowances and unutilised tax losses for the period. The estimated effective tax rate used for the year ended 31 December 2020 was 6% (2019: 10%). The reduction in the effective tax rate was principally due to the recognition of tax losses available for utilisation against future profit.
In May 2015, in line with sections of the Companies Income Tax Act, which provides incentives to companies that deliver gas utilisation projects, Seplat was granted a three-year tax holiday with a possible extension of two years. In 2018, upon review of the performance of the business, the Group provided a notification to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) for the extension of claim for the additional two-year tax holiday. Effective May 2020, the five-year tax holiday benefit for the gas business ended and the financial statements have been prepared on this basis.
*And added to the 2021 results is this table;
14.1 Deferred tax
The analysis of deferred tax assets and deferred tax liabilities is as follows:
As at31 March 2022
As at31 Dec 2021
As at31 March 2022
As at31 Dec 2021
?'million
?'million
$'000
$'000
Deferred tax assets
Deferred tax asset to be recovered in less than 12 months
40,703
40,280
97,785
97,785
Deferred tax asset to be recovered after more than 12 months
392,782
388,706
943,621
943,621
433,485
428,986
1,041,406
1,041,406
As at31 March 2022
As at31 Dec 2021
As at31 March 2022
As at31 Dec 2021
?'million
?'million
$'000
$'000
Deferred tax liabilities
Deferred tax liabilities to be settled in less than 12 months
(117,085)
(121,995)
(281,286)
(296,156)
Deferred tax liabilities to be settled after more than 12 months
(248,670)
(221,184)
(597,406)
(536,945)
(365,755)
(343,179)
(878,693)
(833,101)
Net deferred tax asset
67,730
85,807
162,713
208,305
Funding requirement is in the acquisition RNS;
https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Caracal-Tanzanian-Acquisition-FINAL-7.12.21.pdf
Going to be CLN's, probably at a discount to the share price, maybe from riverfort global. My guess is 0.95p
The Company is pleased to confirm that is has agreed indicative terms for a £5.0 million secured working
capital facility (’Facility’) with a London-based institutional investor. The Facility remains subject to final
due diligence and documentation and has been structured as an 18-month convertible loan note, with
drawings made by the Company upon key milestones being achieved at the Nyakafuru Project. The Facility
has terms and conditions that are standard for facilities of this nature and includes rights to convert into
equity at a fixed share price.
No, I have just looked at other companies and applied a similar valuation here; look at goldplat, that's currently self funding expansion, has low debt and at 8p is on a current pe of 3, not a forward one.
Galante gold is trading on a forward pe of 2 for end of year if you like to extrapolate into the future. Basically, if you don't value companies on the revenue and think that they are going to multi bag just because of a 2M Oz resource that's going to make £14M a year you are going to get frustrated and sell.
I've got around 1.6p by end of year as follows;
aisc (subject to change following heap leach results etc.) 1100$, gold price of 1800 gives operating profit of £13.M after the 1% royalty to gdp.
Minus admin costs of £3.6M = £9.4M, minus tax (assuming nsx listing), so earnings of £7.05M. Given the risks to further dilution ( am guessing that to get to 50K ozs could cost £25M extra) I would put a pe of 4, which gets 2p with current shares as it's a small cap miner with only PI's buying the shares.
Tanzanian acquisitions of £4.5M, part cash (from a raise), part share payment, plus another around 50M shares to gdp, so add £5M to market cap gets 1.68p a share. Now, you could, at best argue we should have pe of shanta gold (struggling to fund mine developement from earnings plus debt) which is trading on a pe of 7 and has had some institutional investment inflow into their shares. Then that puts market cap at £56M, or about 2.9p a share, probably in h2 next year.
Near term, I can see another pull back on Tuesday following the after hours RNS on Friday as the balance sheet scares people off prior to the q1 results.
Now, if anyone feels like sharing their valuations please post below, I would love to hear how we are going to get to 20p, as far as I can see, if we get 50Kozs in Kenya, plus 70Kozs production in Tanzania in 5-6 years plus a few more 20-50k ozs potential projects I can see 10p tops, so outside of hyperinflation I just don't see it.
Operations are now profitable so cash isn't an issue at least, it's a long wait for the study now but any fears of dilution or political risks should be put to rest now.
Seplat is purchasing the whole company, not a stake, so I don't think the right of first refusal is valid. Nigeria is supposed to follow the British law procedures which means the interpretation in the article should stand. This is however Nigeria but I don't see how the acquisition is priced in anyway. We are barely back to pre COVID prices and oil is 100$ a barrel. If you are concerned there are other opportunities in safer jurisdictions. May I recommend the North sea?
@jerseycrew how have you calculated the aisc? I'm not sure even the board know that yet with all that's going on. Weren't operating costs 950 Oz from the last results? Think that slightly over 1000 is more realistic once at 24k Oz's.....
https://youtu.be/k2xzTLzaxB4
Basically reiterates a lot of what other gold analysts are saying, gives me confidence to hold long term anyway.
Also, any sustained strength in the gold price will give a nice boost to Gcat and other infant producers' long term growth even if it's not immediately factored in to the share price like inflationary pressures and a mass sell off of Russian gold are IMO.
Would also guess that if an operator like harbour then decides to farm in they would typically want 75% of the field? so that leaves a free carry to eog of 2500bopd? This is of course dependant on serenity being attractive to a big producer.
Not sure what to make of the market cap predictions myself, just know Majid said last year before the farmout fell through he expects serenity, from 4 wells would be expected to produce c/ 40k bopd. So with eog farming in to derisk with a 2nd well I would guess 25% field Npv once built should be pretty large. Anyone got any numbers?