Member Info for hazrat

Anyone else crunched some numbers on the results?

I have based on following assumptions: 80% of production costs are fixed (salaries, vehicle rental, Burundi support costs etc). The production period is 8 months (Nov to June) and so the cost per tonne is 8 months of the fixed cost spread over the 575 tonnes produced plus the variable cost per tonne. I have removed the $700k SBP from admin expenses to arrive at a cash profit number.

Total production costs are $1.4m (575 tonnes * $2430 cost per tonne). This gives $1.1m fixed and $279k variable (or $486 per tonnes) if 80% of costs are fixed. Grossing up the fixed to a full year from 8 months = $1.7m.

Revenue at 5000 tonnes a year = $8.5m (5,000*1707)
Productions costs are $4.1m being
Fixed - $1.7m
Variable - $2.4m (5,000 tonnes * $486 per tonne)

Admin expenses (less SBP) are $2.1m.

Profit = $2.4m.

At 6,000 tonnes pa this rises to $3.6m.

If production costs are 90% fixed then at 5,000 tonnes p.a. profit is $3.4m and at 6,000 is it $4.8m.

Using the base case, sales at around 255 tonnes per month is the cash break even point, which lends credibility to Martin's assertion that the mine will be production CF positive before it reaches the 416 tonnes a month run rate. I note that he said production CF positive which i take to mean before admin expenses and CAPEX.

What do others get?

Thanks Tiger. Missed it because of work but hopefully they will upooad onto the website soon. Can't see it yet. If they are CF positive by year end then the current SP is an amazing buying opportunity.

So as i read it, when they are selling 400 tonnes a month, generating 900k, rather than 475 tonnes per half year, they will be rolling in cash. Going concern statement clearly says that they have enough cash to last a year at least. So if they can hit the 400 targe by year end that should be it for placings.

Great results from this consistent performer.

Glad i bought in at 118 when company was worth less than cash. Now the debate, hold or take profit?

Nice to no longer have to chat to myself here. Desperately undervalued company, even after the recent gains. Well run, good growth, what's not to like? Only wish I had bought more at 44p

Excellent to have reasonable contributors back on board. Good bye minor and the abuse you brought.

Have reinvested my profits from my first stab at the company. Now that the placing is out of the way I feel more comfortable being back in. Very interesting structure to the deal just announced, quite innovative and prevents dilution. Also continued director buys shows they are still confidant.

Worth less than cash, had to be a buy at this level.

Agreed, a point i have made several times in the past. However, the unpleasant reaction that people like Minor have to any note of caution suggests that they believe comments on these boards will indeed move the SP.

I am not gleeful at all about the decline in the SP, i have merely commented on why i think it has occurred. I would love for this share to succeed but think it will take longer and require more cash than some people expect.

Not really sure why i have got dragged into a conversation with someone whose only contribution is to be derogatory about people with opinions that differ from his. Must be delicate, if Minor can't cope with differing opinions then he must be a very sensitive soul.

He will be calling people with different opinions to his "muppets" again in no time.

Yawn, minor is back. Shame, board had a brief moment of civility and useful posts.

I am amazed at the lack of a placing so far. There must be very careful cash management going on or very short payment terms with Tk. Almost tempted to put a bit back in at this level.

Overdone now as valued at estimated year end cash balance. Yes there is a pension concern but a couple of interest rate hikes will solve that.

About bloody time!
I was expecting something after the trading update

Looking for another good day here. Great growth, progressive dividend, low default rates and a pe below 10. What is not to like?

This company is incredibly and frustratingly undervalued. Hopefully this announcement will be a catalyst for a sustained increase in the SP.

"The election to extend the period where BPC and the Counterparty are to work exclusivity together on technical and commercial matters for a further month, is a clear indication of continued progress in our efforts to conclude a transaction covering our highly prospective assets in The Bahamas. We will update the market of any material developments as and when appropriate, including any further extensions"

Sounds very positive to me. A commercial deal of this scale is very complicated and will require substantial financial and legal preparation and review. The fact that both parties are still interested, and that a further 250k is being paid to continue discussions is great news.

Correction, meant to say full year results out soon, not interim. Released on 4th Oct in 2017.

Tiger your thoughts mirror mine. Bit too much risk at the moment but heading in the right direction. I will buy back in if there is another placing in the next few months. Half year accounts will be published soon which will give an interesting insight into the companies financial status.

Potential is huge and so I don't mind missing out on the initial jump following good news if it keeps my downside risk in check.