Member Info for hazrat

Because it could also be that a retired director with a substantial holding is selling out, as anyone in retirement would to diversify and reduce risk. Once this selling pressure releases the SP could rebound, reach record highs and still only have a pe of 10.

Just interested in hearing about your own analysis and insight into the company based on the work you must have done to arrive at your conclusions.

What makes you say that?

Not can i. Will let it fade a bit more and then buy more. SP dropping following good news = great buyong opportunity.

Retired director continuing to sell?

Please ignore typos. Fat fingers, small touchscreen!

Really interesting commentary which i will mull over. My cautious sife agrees with you, maonly because things are never that easy. However, the investor call was a goldmine of positive information and unusually for a junior miner, i have faith in the BoD. Just want to add, great to have reasoned debate here rather than the torrents of baseless abuse that infects so many other boards.

Depends on the Jorc estimate really but even that isn't the full picture because the Jorc is just being prepard for one area out of the many known to contain RE. When the current mining areas generate enough money to cover expenses and open up new areas, the growth will be exponential

Per post below, at run rate of 400 tonnes per month the company generates a cash profit of several million. Should be there before the end of the year.

And still no uplift in SP. I am bemused

Can you share your workings supporting the assumption that more placings will be required?

And i haven't seen anything that says a 50% dilution is required. Where did this come from?

Yeah i get that, point i am making is that by delaying there is a double uplift to the NPV. 1. There is an extra 50% coming to the company. 2. Because phase 3 has been completed the DF reduces due to the derisking of the project and so the NPV increases. So yes, 50% dilution for 50% gain makes no sense but it is possible that the benefit will be greater than 50%. It comes down to the certainty of the BoD that the product will pass phase 3.

I should have sold. Inevitable drift without news.

I have probably missed it as haven't followed as closely since i sold out. What is the likely % dilution required at the current SP to fully fund phase 3? If anything less than 50% then the current plan makes sense. However, as you you suggest, if the SP drop wasn't factored into the plan and the dilution now required is more severe then indeed the company has a real problem. What you are not considering is the sales forecasts that the strategy is based on and the DF applied to models. It may be that the reduced risk from passing phase 3 means that while the uplift in sales is 50%, the DCF is materially improved by a reduced DF increasing the NPV.

Inwas merely stating that your logic for selling out now for a lower value is flawed because the upside of raising more cash and waiting until the end of phase 3 generates much more value. As to your point, having the right idea and being able to deliver it are very different things so there is no contradiction in my thought process.

I am not sure it works like that Rhodi. We get 50% more of the value of the product, which given that the market size is around $6bn could be substantial. Lets say Med gets 4bn of that market and Fum was in line for $1bn. By completing phase 3 first, FUM now gets $1.5bn. So for an extra couple of million investment it buys $500m. So the current approach is logical. My concern is the ability of the CEO to deliver on his promises. Failed consistently wo date whichbis why i have sold out.

I have sold at a considerable loss. I am frustrated because i have been taught again a basic lesson - a good product with crap management isn't going anywhere. As i have posted before, the ceo of a 14 strong loss making company being paid over 200k a year is insane. He has underpeformed for years and needs to go.

I have stayed in for now as have quite a buffer. I expect the sp to drift until further news but not worried as i think this is a good long term hold.

Figures Tiger?