Member Info for HawaiifiveO

For those interested AST now meets HSBC's investment criteria and you can now buy shares on their platform, this has not been possible since March - it has been sell only.

Well Xtract must be running on air right now, I remain convinced Bird is about to raise cash, he did it last year in July the chance must be high for the dreaded mid afternoon placing RNS.

The share price has been weak for around a month now, usually the time it takes to organise a funding - we will see, if he can get a raise away around 1p -1.1p maybe the share price will then start to move back up to reflect the upcoming news-flow one hopes he will deliver.

Condor tweet today - still working with locals

https://twitter.com/CondorGoldplc/status/1280092810461544449?s=20

Gold price attacking $1800 oz once again and more comment from 'local knowledge' on A$VFN that Condor has secured more meaningful land.

Excellent grades near to ORR on the Mali/Senegal gold trend reported today from CORA including 57g/t Au - their shares have significantly re-rated over recent months.

Only a matter of time before ORR re-rates, news on asset disposals, Iamgold investment decision and operations will flow over the next few months.

Have been trying to evaluate the investment proposition here given recent events and the ultra low market valuation - the recent funding appears to be one of the most expensive and dilutive I have ever seen, there has not been much comment on this but if the fees, warrants and loan notes are converted into shares that could equate to over 1 billion shares being issued - circa 80% dilution for £1m.

Assume they draw the entire £1m

Fees paid in shares (drawdown & facilitation) cost £150k & £70k at VWAP, say 0.20p, would equate to 110m shares being issued

Loan note conversion at VWAP (lowest conversion price possible 0.15p) but say .20p, 500m shares issued

Most destructive are the warrants - 3 year term at .25p - 400m shares issued (Kibo would receive another £1m)

I expect Kibo to draw the entire £1m, the entities who supplied the cash have a great deal, no floor price on the fee shares, a floor of 0.15p on the notes and a possible 3 year drag on the share price with warrants priced at a modest 0.25p.

It seems Kibo really struggled to get the funding done, even at the current share price the investment proposition is modest at best.

All IMO etc.

Company had £360k on 31st December, they had £440k in December 2018 and placed stock in July - the share price seems to be under pressure recently from scrappy selling with one or two larger chunks of stock hitting the bid, Bird has raised with his chums at Novum for both Galileo and Bezant recently, question is is he about to raise for Xtract.

I think a placing is in bound - thoughts ?

According to the fellow who posts elsewhere, claims to have local knowledge, Condor has just purchased some more land, good news if so.

The post reads...

'As it has been Confirmed by two different locals I would mention it.
I have been told that this week CNR has bought some land, an area named: el chorriado.
News travel fast around the village.
They are not sure how much land has been bought so far, but know that progress is been made'

Whilst not wishing holders ill fate it does appear downside chart resistance of 5.75p has been broken today, next resistance is 3.90p

I feel the shares will head lower therefore, no matter how the funding is dressed up 7m shares need to find a home, even assuming some may go to sticky holders of Shard some will inevitably get dumped onto the market IMO.

The market makers could take the price to wherever they find retail buyers/volume, we will soon see, as a trader I will watch carefully, 12 month low was 3p.

It looks like the subscription agreement is a kind of death spiral facility, so Shard will be issued with tranches of 7m shares which they will then dispose of in the market and pay ZIOC.

The question is where does the volume come from to sell these shares, how low does the share price fall as a result of the selling.

I similar funding deal took place at AST where a certain number of shares were supposed to be sold each month and the company would receive the cash, what happened was the share price plummeted to such an extent that the whole deal had to be aborted, the volume was simply not there to allow the selling.

These deals are OK in principle but Directors simply do not understand the mechanics of the market, so can 7m shares be sold in the market in batches, probably, but at what price ?

I have traded this stock quite successfully but am now wary, the market makers are aware of the situation, could the share price plunge to new lows as a result of the funding deal ??

This is materially undervalued make no mistake, I believe the company could be valued IRO £40m m/cap if they deliver as they suggest.

Very rare for a junior to acquire a fellow the calibre of Graham Briggs ex Harmony Gold, it brings credibility, he would not want to risk his reputation would he, I suspect he knows the project is a winner, the economics say as much.

If they can get the project funded without dilution then you could be looking at a share price circa 8p-10p.

https://www.mining.com/graham-briggs-to-retire-as-the-ceo-of-harmony-gold/

Looks like ORR are entering a news rich period - 2 new interviews

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=9VwRmzoOFDI&feature=emb_logo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M825Uyawxd4&feature=emb_logo

It is pretty clear the impasse is now effecting both operations and the ability to get the accounts signed off, not withstanding virus issues.

I simply cannot understand the rationale of the major shareholders/debt holders, they are at risk of losing everything IMO, for goodness sake get a deal done !

bc142

Thanks for your earlier post about my position in the market re Kibo, I had a lucky escape here and totally exited during the short close 'spike' to 14p back in late 2014 - I count myself exceptionally lucky, I genuinely feel for folks here who have lost huge sums of cash, in my view Coetzee pinned all his hopes on the coal/power project in Tanzania and then got a massive knock back by the Government.

I could write a book about this company and it would not be particularly complimentary, nearly every investor (other than those who traded the many spikes) has lost significant sums of money, I knew a fellow who lost £40k here and sold out around 2p, even that could be deemed a lucky escape.

I suppose one chink of light is twice Kibo reached a £30m+ market cap, usually from a low share price, the move from 1.5p to 14p in Q1 2014 was one time and there was another similar move a few years later if I recall - on AIM anything can happen !

HSBC are terrible when a company does a share consolidation, I have been with them a long time and have in the past had compensation because I have not been able to trade a stock for months because they need to decide whether it meets their 'investment criteria' - this even applies if they were allowing you to trade the same stock before consolidation.

I also think they look at the said company to see if it is suitable, those they deem in financial distress or have a very low market cap are most likely not to be re-admitted to their platform - at the moment AST is not tradable and is sell only for example.

I recall one time that Caza O&G was not tradable after some share issue/consolidation and soon after they went bust !

None of this may apply to Kibo, it seems there is some confusion at HSBC generally about the situation - best pursue them by phone or send them messages by the secure online contact box.

Tweet from Paul Johnson below - mentioned before he made Metal Tiger £1m from their initial entry into Kibo Mining back in 2014-15 - he knows Coetzee well had has profited accordingly - the key is timing one's entry and exit !

'Financing options and operational progress. Looks well set. AISC of $727 means a strong margin against $1780 gold price which looks be on upward curve. 35,000 Oz per year targeted - 50% JV - that’s a major revenue generator for KAT - yet £5m cap at moment? Worth researching'

https://twitter.com/pauljohnson9691/status/1278237004594110465?s=20

It can only be a matter of time before Condor attracts buying interest once again, there is a great opportunity to get in near the bottom, once the buying starts it will move up quickly.

Gold at $1800oz now with forecasts of $2000oz or more yet Condor sits nearly 50% lower to the share price reached in 2018, there-in lies the investment proposition. One whiff of near term production via toll mining and the shares will fly, I believe this is what Mark Child is aiming for BTW.

I am well positioned here.

Clearly there is a lot of news in the pipeline and with gold approaching $1800 oz and copper rising we are in the right space at the right time !

The call only lasted 30 minutes and Colin gave an overview of all the main projects, he thinks copper is the place to be and said he expects the price to surge in the next 6 months or so. The overview was very much as before in his previous podcasts so nothing really new.

I missed the 1st ten minutes but it now looks like Manica production has now been pushed back to Q1 next year which I suppose is disappointing, he also said he thinks the company is very well placed to deliver value to shareholders.

In all a rather uneventful call.

Coetzee has ability to deliver on feasibility studies and introducing partners into projects, the $hit hit the fan at Kibo when the blue sky Mbeya Coal/Power project was booted out by the erratic Tanzania Government which has destroyed so many overseas companies operating in country.

Fact is KAT's gold project is in South Africa where Coetzee many of his advisors reside, they have also recruited the former CEO of Harmany Gold to oversee operations and he will surely assist in securing the ultimate financial plan.

Also of note, the stake held by POW, Paul Johnson held a large position in Kibo Mining for the then micro cap Metal Tiger, he made a cool £1m profit for them when Kibo shares multi bagged. I suspect he will make similar money here.

This looks a great entry point IMO.